The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-22

 

Thursday: 1,433 Seats Sold (From 16 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 1:20AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: This also includes the "Opening Night Fan Events" which would equal 503 seats sold right now. It's good that the actual traditional 2D, 3D, and PLF showtimes have outsold those Fan Event screenings, but that's mainly due to this getting quite a number of showtimes per theater. 

 

Still, unlike Deadpool and Wolverine or Joker: Folie à Deux (which did sell more than Venom on its first day of pre-sales), I'm expecting walk-up business to take this film over the finish line. If that happens, then we shouldn't be hitting the panic button just yet. This franchise has proven to be very general-audience friendly and I remember Venom: Let There Be Carnage not having that strong of pre-sales until the weekend it opened. 

 

As I've already said, I don't think this is doing $100M, but if the movie is just good enough for audiences, it should open pretty close to the range of the first Venom ($80M). 

 

We'll see, but I'm not worried about this one not doing well. Even if it does have the lowest opening of the Venom franchise, Sony is billing this as the last one. Also remember that the budget is closer to $100M than $200M. They don't exactly have to make $500M worldwide to be a hit. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Ryan C

[charlie Jatinder]

Venom 3 MiniTC2 T-23 Days

 

Previews - 197/64799 (267 showings)

 

Comps

0.76x Venom 2 first day in CA locs - $9.5M adj for inflation

0.49x Black Adam first day - $4M+ adj for inflation

1.76x Aquaman 2 first day - $7.9M

0.57x Joker 2 first day

[THUNDER BIRD]

This Comic Book Movie bleeding should continue till Avengers Doomsday.

 

As I suspected beforehand, Deadpool & Wolverine was outlier because it was Deadpool & Wolverine.

 

Although these Jokers and Venoms and Falcons & Thunderbolts are lower tier movies, real shockwaves shall come when "Superman not sure what legacy" & "Fantastic Four round 4" release.

[Cooper Legion]

Not a super exciting start but do expect it to be relatively backloaded like v1 and v2. Maybe 10-12ish previews 7-8ish IM for 75-85ish from a quick (and mtcless, so more error bars than usual) read of things. Pretty much fine, small drop in real performance from first two (95-100ish adjusted iirc) would be totally fine for a threequel with no huge hook (unless one develops/is leaked/rumored in the home stretch)

Edited 1 hour ago by Cooper Legion

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Not a super exciting start but do expect it to be relatively backloaded like v1 and v2. Maybe 10-12ish previews 7-8ish IM for 75-85ish from a quick read of things. Pretty much fine, small drop in real performance from first two (95-100ish adjusted iirc) would be totally fine for a threequel with no huge hook (unless one develops/is leaked/rumored in the home stretch)

And no NWH hype

[charlie Jatinder]

Joker 2 MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Previews - 2718/60080 (225 showings)

 

Comps

Marvels - $6.6M

Flash - $5.1M

 

The comps are on an increasing trend. Should hit $7M final + $1M early shows.

 

Friday - 3754/106721 (410 showings)

 

Comps

Marvels - $16.9M

Flash - $15M

 

Same here. Increasing trend.