The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric is Smiling]

Quorum Updates

Here T-16: 22.08% Awareness, 41.34% Interest

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-23: 19.57% Awareness, 34.74% Interest

Moana 2 T-42: 67% Awareness, 55.26% Interest

A Complete Unknown T-70: 17.98% Awareness, 33.88% Interest

The Fire Inside T-70: 13.59% Awareness, 32.18% Interest

Flight Risk T-100: 24.77% Awareness, 46.03% Interest

Novocaine T-149: 11.2% Awareness, 36.29% Interest

Michael T-184: 32.94% Awareness, 52.17% Interest

 

Smile 2 T-2: 56.2% Awareness, 45.34% Interest

Final Awareness: 93% chance of 20M, 71% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 30M

 

The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim T-58: 20.56% Awareness, 43.39% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 14% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 78% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M, 22% chance of 30M

T-60 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M

[Eric is Smiling]

https://deadline.com/2024/10/smile-2-box-office-1236117666/

 

Quote

There’s really one true one wide release this weekend and it’s Paramount‘s sequel Smile 2 which currently presales point toward a high-teens result. Tracking earlier this week indicated higher in the $20M+ range but that all depends on whether Latino and Hispanic moviegoers send this $28M priced sequel to the 2022 original to another stratosphere.

 

 

Why the lower result here for Smile 2? When the first movie opened, there wasn’t a lot of horror on the marquee at the time, much of the fall sparse due to the delay of movies coming out of Covid, and the post production logjam. We’ll continue to assess the up and down as the weekend goes on.

 

Smile 2 will have the PLFs as part of its 3,500 theater count this weekend. Where’s the Imax screens? Why they’re part of a three-week deal on Warner Bros’ bomb Joker: Folie a Deux.

 

The R-rated Smile 2 is largely under 25 female skewing to the male skewing Terrifier 3 which did a great $2.2M yesterday for a five-day running total of $23.7M. The Cineverse microbudget success is expected to ease -60% in weekend 2 per sources for around $7.6M. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the unrated horror film holds better. Smile 2 and Terrifier 3 do have some overlap in their audiences.

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Grand Cine]

5 hours ago, justnumbers said:

Wonder if M3GAN could see the same fate as Smile 2 if novelty also wears off 

I think M3GAN 2 will have a better marketing than Smile 2 and the former will have the advantage to be on Summer

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think M3GAN 2 will have a better marketing than Smile 2 and the former will have the advantage to be on Summer

They are already doing a M3GAN spinoff with a sexbot. Studio exes have NO freaking clue.

[lorddemaxus]

The kids have already moved on to Art the Clown. Next year, theyll find some new horror thing to latch onto. 28 Years Later is probably making more

[kayumanggi]

 

[vafrow]

General question, more for Canadian trackers, does anyone know why Universal releases don't get released in VIP theatres in Cineplex?  I just saw someone say this on the chain's subreddit. I went back and checked all my Cineplex releases, and it seems to be the case.

 

Is this a similar occurrence in US based chains? Are VIP theatres a thing elsewhere? I thought Alamo was essentially the VIP concept. Premium seats, table service and age restrictions.

 

If that's the case, that's going to be a big hurdle for Wicked. It feels like it would do really well there. VIP tickets go for more than IMAX tickets. Barbie did gangbusters with the format here, and this feels like the closest thing.

 

I don't know why Universal would be against it other than bickering over studio share of ticket prices.

 

[jeffthehat]

On 10/15/2024 at 12:30 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana 

Smile 2 T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
372	10171	60

Comps

0.83x Trap = $1.8m

0.67x Longlegs = $2.0m

2.73x Imaginary = $2.0m

0.95x Terrifier 3 = $2.3m

 

AVG = $2.03m

 

2 theaters are having issues so comps could be undershooting 5-10% 

 

 

Indiana 

Smile 2 T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
520	11230	73

Comps

0.95x Trap = $2.1m

0.71x Longlegs = $2.1m

3.31x Imaginary = $2.4m

 

AVG = $2.20m

 

Good day, had the wrong # for Terrifier yesterday