The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Tinalera]

Wicked

Thurs Nov 21 Fri Nov 22 (Taken Oct 25)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	19	417	3894	4311	0.0967
	Fri	4	26	700	5879	6579	0.1063	5 shows added
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montreal	Thurs	4	14	61	3745	3806	0.0160
	Fri	4	18	199	5197	5396	0.0368	1 show added

 

 

Toronto picking up a bit in sales, Montreal still not a lot of movement. 

[Flip]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Venom 3 is weird. May be I was not seeing all the data. Even under indexing does not account for the preview number. Anyway we will know for sure once Friday numbers are out. Probably looking at 60m ish for now. 

There was a separate fan event that probably made a few hundred thousand 

[leoh]

7 minutes ago, Flip said:

There was a separate fan event that probably made a few hundred thousand 

I think most trackers were considering the IMAX Thursday fan events as well

[keysersoze123]

51 minutes ago, Flip said:

There was a separate fan event that probably made a few hundred thousand 

I looked at those as well. 

[Rocketracoon]

How is Red One doing? Tickets just went on sale today assuming not much sales at all

[emoviefan]

41 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

How is Red One doing? Tickets just went on sale today assuming not much sales at all

The fact nobody has said anything probably answers that. 

[Flip]

On 10/23/2024 at 10:46 PM, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-29) 

 

14 showtimes/180 tix sold (+29!)

Missed AQP Day One (T-29) [???]

4.00x Twisters (T-29) [30.00m]

1.78x Beetlejuice 2 (T-29) [17.44m]

 

So yesterday really wasn’t a fluke. I’m interested to see just how long this can go on for.

Gladiator 2 (T-27) 

 

14 showtimes/234 tix sold (+64!)

2.82x AQP Day One (T-27) [19.18m]

2.05x Beetlejuice 2 (T-27) [17.44m]
 

 

Wow. Just really impressive sales, even when Joker 2 (overindexed a lot) kicks in the comp should be at least $9m

[AniNate]

Looking at early Moana 2 showtimes, Cinemark is giving it the matinee XD but still holding back on evening slots.

[vafrow]

On 10/16/2024 at 6:50 AM, vafrow said:

 

Wicked, T-37, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 69

New Sales since T-40: 20

Growth: 41%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 11

Tickets per Showtime: 6.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 16/3

Early Evening: 43/5

Late Evening: 10/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/1

Regular 3D: 0/2

Dolby: 16/2

Dolby 3D: 53/6

 

Comps

Not available 

 

 

EA sales

Total sales: 131

New sales since T-40: 11

Growth: 9%

Theatres: 3

Showtimes: 3

Formats: Dolby 3D

 

Comps not available 

 

I wasn't going to post until close enough to have decent comps again, but felt it was worth it to highlight the growth here. I'm not sure if it was the SNL appearance or not, or just the general marketing, but it's impressive to maintain this level of interest over a month out.

 

Wicked, T-27, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 97

7 day average daily growth: 3.7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 11

Tickets per Showtime: 7.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 16/3

Early Evening: 69/5

Late Evening: 12/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/1

Regular 3D: 0/2

Dolby: 16/2

Dolby 3D: 81/6

 

Comps

2.771x Beetlejuice 2 for $27.2M

0.424x Dune 2 for $4.2M

Average: $15.7M

 

EA sales

Total sales: 176

7 day average daily growth: 3.3%

Theatres: 3

Showtimes: 3

Formats: Dolby 3D

 

Comps not available 

 

Some comps are starting to come online, but I'm not sure if these will be the ones I'll use in tje end. Beetlejuice was a bad comp for Venom that distorted results. Likewise Dune overindexed, and very driven by IMAX capacity, so not a great comparison. But both are available this far out.

 

The most important part is growth rate. I'll post Gladiator updates in a separate post, but Gladiator is growing much more aggressively. I wouldn't say Wicked is doing badly on this front. 3% is in line with expectations, but not blowing the roof off.

[vafrow]

On 10/21/2024 at 4:45 AM, vafrow said:

 

Gladiator II, T-32, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews 

 

Total Sales: 65

7 day average daily growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Tickets per Showtime: 4.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 7/3

Early Evening: 41/8

Late Evening: 17/4

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 25/9

IMAX: 34/4

VIP: 6/2

 

Comps

Not available 

 

I'm overdue on an update here.

 

It's too far out to have relevant T minus comps, so just reporting on growth rate.

 

This has stayed strong, with recent reactions helping give a boost over the weekend. 7% daily growth this far out is remarkable.

 

Gladiator II, T-27, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews 

 

Total Sales: 95

7 day average daily growth: 9.9%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Tickets per Showtime: 6.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 7/3

Early Evening: 68/8

Late Evening: 20/4

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 35/9

IMAX: 49/4

VIP: 11/2

 

Comps

 0.415x Dune 2 for $4.1M

6.786x KOTPOTA for $33.9M

2.500x Alien: Romulus for $16.3M

 

Comps added back in but mainly working with what's available. I'll reassess as I get more options. 

 

Key here is growth rate. It's holding 10% average daily growth. That's going to slow down eventually, but it's impressive and makes me think this still might have more upward potential than we've seen on estimates.