The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[divesyn]

25 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I know we are in the middle of Swift mayhem, but Equalizer sales are going crazy today

Say 40m for the 4-days and I'll love u forever

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-43	Jax	5	45	587	587	4,975	11.80%
		Phx	6	45	2,908	2,908	8,375	34.72%
		Ral	6	45	2,294	2,294	6,477	35.42%
	Total		17	135	5,789	5,789	19,827	29.20%

*Two Jacksonville theaters have shows listed but are still closed from the hurricane.

 

Taylor Swift (2 hrs) comps against 24hr movies

 - NWH - .41x (20.52m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .964x (34.72m)

 - Batman - 1.78x (38.44m)

 

This is without 2/5 of Jacksonville available yet and only 2 hours of sales.  I'd think Friday will be at about 95% capacity when all is said and done.  Just a matter of how many shows it can secure.

 

Comps against T-0 morning sales

 - Super Mario - .535x (16.97m)

 - Barbie - .608x (12.9m)

 - Space Jam - 1.306x (17.11m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-43	Jax	5	45	2,355	2,355	7,499	31.40%
		Phx	6	45	2,908	2,908	8,375	34.72%
		Ral	7	50	2,530	2,530	7,025	36.01%
	Total		18	140	7,793	7,793	22,899	34.03%

 

The two Jacksonville theaters opened and another Raleigh location added shows.  Didn't update any of the others so this is still the 2hr update for all theaters.  

 

Taylor Swift (2 hrs) comps against first day movies

 - NWH (33hrs) - .552x (27.62m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 1.298x (46.73m)

 - Batman - 2.396x (51.75m)

 

 

Comps against T-0 morning sales

 - Super Mario - .721x (22.84m)

 - Barbie - .819x (17.36m)

 - Space Jam - 1.758x (23.03m)

 

If another ticket doesn't get sold it would comp out around 20m.  And that's before ATP adjustment...

[M37]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

What’s the ceiling for its OW we’re thinking? It’s getting scary big 

Perhaps not as big as early sales indicate. More may be added, but there is a limited quantity of shows for this event (and no Thur preview), and I think the organizers are content with demand rolling forward to subsequent weeks rather than maximizing OW

 

Wouldn’t be totally surprised with something like a $30M / $25M / $20M first 3 weekends 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

So is Eras taking away IMAX from Exorcist now or are they gonna do some sharing?

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Perhaps not as big as early sales indicate. More may be added, but there is a limited quantity of shows for this event (and no Thur preview), and I think the organizers are content with demand rolling forward to subsequent weeks rather than maximizing OW

 

Wouldn’t be totally surprised with something like a $30M / $25M / $20M first 3 weekends 

Prepare to be shocked.

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-1, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  888

New Sales: 318

Growth from yesterday: 56%

Theatre Count:  51

Showtimes:  163

Tickets per showtime: 5.448

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.765x Blue Beetle for $2.5M

1.260x Gran Turismo for $1.8M

 

At 56% growth, it stayed pace with both comps almost to a T. That said, I feel like Equalizer will be more walk up friendly. Gran Turismo likely saw reduced walk up demand due to NCD.

 

I would put my final estimate at $2.3M +/- $0.2M.

 

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-0 (2pm update), southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  1306

New Sales: 458

Growth from yesterday: 47%

Theatre Count:  51

Showtimes:  163

Tickets per showtime: 8.012

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.755x Blue Beetle for $2.5M

 

It's had a decent jump, but almost identical to BB, so no change in that comp. I didn't get a day of update on Gran Turismo, so no update there.

 

The Cineplex site has held up today despite the volume, so it shouldn't be a drag on sales here.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

So is Eras taking away IMAX from Exorcist now or are they gonna do some sharing?

Every theater I track is only one IMAX show a day for Eras.  Exorcist should get most I would think.

[M37]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Prepare to be shocked.

It’s just a question of capacity, unless more is added. It’s something like 24 shows per theater for OW, and while the ATP will be ridiculous, there are only so many seats to be sold 

 

To be clear, that $30M number wasn’t a ceiling, $50/$40/$30 would be same principle

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-43	Jax	5	45	2,355	2,355	7,499	31.40%
		Phx	6	45	2,908	2,908	8,375	34.72%
		Ral	7	50	2,530	2,530	7,025	36.01%
	Total		18	140	7,793	7,793	22,899	34.03%

 

The two Jacksonville theaters opened and another Raleigh location added shows.  Didn't update any of the others so this is still the 2hr update for all theaters.  

 

Taylor Swift (2 hrs) comps against first day movies

 - NWH (33hrs) - .552x (27.62m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 1.298x (46.73m)

 - Batman - 2.396x (51.75m)

 

 

Comps against T-0 morning sales

 - Super Mario - .721x (22.84m)

 - Barbie - .819x (17.36m)

 - Space Jam - 1.758x (23.03m)

 

If another ticket doesn't get sold it would comp out around 20m.  And that's before ATP adjustment...

wait... this is just for Friday???

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s just a question of capacity, unless more is added. It’s something like 24 shows per theater for OW, and while the ATP will be ridiculous, there are only so many seats to be sold 

 

To be clear, that $30M number wasn’t a ceiling, $50/$40/$30 would be same principle

October is barren. 
Shows will be added as demand continues. AMC itself are the ones who worked with Taylor’s team on this. No reason they’d want to limit potential after seeing the initial rush. Tickets are already selling past the first weekend. 

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
201	791	35456	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.345x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$2.41M THUR Previews

 

(0.267x) of Fast X

~$2.00M THUR Previews

 

(1.332x) of Gran Turismo

~$1.86M THUR Previews

 

(1.186x) of Meg 2

~$3.91M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.54M

 

Guess I'll go with $2.6M previews for now

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
201	1272	35456	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

481

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.331x) of Fast X

~$2.48M THUR Previews

 

(1.610x) of Gran Turismo

~$2.25M THUR Previews

 

(1.181x) of Meg 2

~$3.78M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.84M

 

Guess I'll go with $2.8M previews and a range of $3M +/- .5M

[vafrow]

One of the challenges that theatres will have is working with the Thursday to Sunday limitation.

 

They can't go crazy on screen allocations for Eras and then have empty auditoriums Monday to Wednesday. Other studios may not be keen on allowing their film to only serve as weekday filler.

 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

One of the challenges that theatres will have is working with the Thursday to Sunday limitation.

 

They can't go crazy on screen allocations for Eras and then have empty auditoriums Monday to Wednesday. Other studios may not be keen on allowing their film to only serve as weekday filler.

 

 

I wonder why it's only showing on Thu -> Sun, Bieber and 1D's concert movies ran every day, though those were a decade ago now. Seems like it's leaving a lot of money on the table.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, vafrow said:

One of the challenges that theatres will have is working with the Thursday to Sunday limitation.

 

They can't go crazy on screen allocations for Eras and then have empty auditoriums Monday to Wednesday. Other studios may not be keen on allowing their film to only serve as weekday filler.

 

 

I dont think studios have that level of control unless its 1st 2 weeks where they can demand full screens. Its not as if Barbie or something else would say I dont want the screens. 

[VanillaSkies]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

One of the challenges that theatres will have is working with the Thursday to Sunday limitation.

 

They can't go crazy on screen allocations for Eras and then have empty auditoriums Monday to Wednesday. Other studios may not be keen on allowing their film to only serve as weekday filler.

 

 

I actually think it might be the opposite. 
Weekdays in October are dull anyways. I’m sure some places would rather get guaranteed $20/ticket on weekend shows and just have those screens not play anything mid week, then to miss out on sales and possibly have people go see it at a different theatre/chain.

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I wonder why it's only showing on Thu -> Sun, Bieber and 1D's concert movies ran every day, though those were a decade ago now. Seems like it's leaving a lot of money on the table.

Not sure, however for the tour itself she played almost exclusively on Thursday/Friday and Saturday nights. Maybe she is trying to keep an aura of “concert event” even with the film? 

[TheFlatLannister]

LMAO 

 

[Mojoguy]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I wonder why it's only showing on Thu -> Sun, Bieber and 1D's concert movies ran every day, though those were a decade ago now. Seems like it's leaving a lot of money on the table.

Probably don't think it's worth it? TS fans are I imagine mainly little girls/tweens and they will all be too busy in school on the weekdays that theaters aren't going to bother with Mon-Wed showings where maybe 2-3 people show up.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Probably don't think it's worth it? TS fans are I imagine mainly little girls/tweens and they will all be too busy in school on the weekdays that theaters aren't going to bother with Mon-Wed showings where maybe 2-3 people show up.

Taylor released her first album in 2006; millions of Swifties are in their 30s like her. But they probably might be busy with work/family responsibilities on weeknights.

[Mojoguy]

6 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Taylor released her first album in 2006; millions of Swifties are in their 30s like her. But they probably might be busy with work/family responsibilities on weeknights.

Sure she has fans in their 30s, but I don't think they are the main ones going to her concert movie. Maybe they buy her newest albums, but this movie is going to be attracting mainly her younger audiences.