The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

Inceptionzq · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 103 310 33.23%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 57 279 20.43%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

554 24 6552 8.46% 12 38

0.949 The Flash Day 3 9.20M

0.295 Guardians 3 T-23 5.16M

1.592 Black Adam Day 3 12.10M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

117

310

37.74%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

60

269

22.30%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
697	143	8043	8.67%	13	48

1.037

The Flash Day 4

10.06M

1.660

Black Adam Day 4

12.62M

Some showings weren't working yesterday, and I forgot to add a theater that wasn't working the first day back in, so the increase wasn't actually 143 over the past 24 hours. Still doing very well though.

Bob Train · October 4, 2023

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 8	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Exorcist: Believer	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$26,900,000	$26,900,000	~3,600	NEW
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	Paramount Pictures	$14,100,000	$41,500,000	~3,989	-38%
Saw X	Lionsgate	$8,000,000	$32,200,000	~3,262	-56%
The Creator	20th Century Studios	$7,400,000	$26,200,000	~3,680	-47%
The Blind	Fathom Events	$3,000,000	$10,300,000	~1,200	-31%
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,800,000	$81,300,000	~2,600	-42%
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$2,200,000	$35,000,000	~2,500	-39%
Dumb Money	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$2,100,000	$10,700,000	~2,900	-37%
Hocus Pocus: 30th Anniversary	Walt Disney Pictures	$2,000,000	$46,300,000	~1,400	NEW
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,900,000	$88,900,000	~1,700	-30%

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-exorcist-believer/

Inceptionzq · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-23 Thursday 84 Showings 2138 +325 9996 ATP: 16.74

1.306 The Flash Day 3 12.67M

0.285 Guardians 3 T-23 4.99M

2.551 Black Adam Day 3 19.39M

T-24 Friday 92 Showings 1455 +282 10254 ATP: 15.56

1.545 The Flash Day 3 22.86M

0.264 Guardians 3 T-24 8.08M

2.370 Black Adam Day 3 45.24M

T-25 Saturday 91 Showings 797 +290 9924 ATP: 14.79

0.977 The Flash Day 3 15.33M

0.128 Guardians 3 T-25 4.96M

1.172 Black Adam Day 3 27.79M

T-26 Sunday 81 Showings 222 +47 8965 ATP: 13.49

0.655 The Flash Day 3 10.15M

0.075 Guardians 3 T-26 2.34M

1.116 Black Adam Day 3 18.52M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday

91 Showings

2447

+309

11463

ATP:

16.56

1.373

The Flash Day 4

13.32M

2.459

Black Adam Day 4

18.69M

T-23 Friday

106 Showings

1774

+319

13099

ATP:

15.24

1.760

The Flash Day 4

26.05M

2.410

Black Adam Day 4

46.01M

T-24 Saturday

97 Showings

987

+190

11083

ATP:

14.78

1.108

The Flash Day 4

17.39M

1.243

Black Adam Day 4

29.47M

T-25 Sunday

88 Showings

338

+116

10385

ATP:

13.56

0.931

The Flash Day 4

14.43M

1.470

Black Adam Day 4

24.40M

Inceptionzq · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-23 Thursday 84 Showings 565 +134 10934

0.821 The Flash Day 3 7.97M

T-24 Friday 123 Showings 998 +276 15323

3.052 The Flash Day 3 45.17M

T-25 Saturday 121 Showings 225 +43 14885

1.190 The Flash Day 3 18.69M

T-26 Sunday 114 Showings 95 +21 13984

1.203 The Flash Day 3 18.64M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-22 Thursday

85 Showings

719

+154

11046

0.927

The Flash Day 4

8.99M

T-23 Friday

123 Showings

1332

+334

15444

3.581

The Flash Day 4

52.99M

T-24 Saturday

121 Showings

296

+71

14717

1.104

The Flash Day 4

17.34M

T-25 Sunday

114 Showings

104

+9

13992

1.051

The Flash Day 4

16.28M

Inceptionzq · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 110 1203 9.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 42 1258 3.34%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

560 94 11026 5.08% 12 51

0.0686 Taylor Swift Day 2

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

116

1203

9.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

1258

3.66%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
605	45	10534	5.74%	12	51

0.0686

Taylor Swift Day 3

Inceptionzq · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-58 Thursday 56 Showings 2026 +378 8687 ATP: 24.44

0.331 Taylor Swift Friday Day 2

T-59 Friday 97 Showings 2409 +541 15656 ATP: 24.88

0.389 Taylor Swift Saturday Day 2

T-60 Saturday 97 Showings 2223 +524 15835 ATP: 24.61

0.504 Taylor Swift Sunday Day 2

T-61 Sunday 85 Showings 1305 +375 13169 ATP: 23.85

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-57 Thursday

57 Showings

2153

+127

8770

ATP:

24.44

0.318

Taylor Swift Friday Day 3

T-58 Friday

97 Showings

2629

+220

15557

ATP:

24.87

0.363

Taylor Swift Saturday Day 3

T-59 Saturday

101 Showings

2441

+218

16214

ATP:

24.64

0.474

Taylor Swift Sunday Day 3

T-60 Sunday

85 Showings

1471

+166

13169

ATP:

23.89

Inceptionzq · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-58 Thursday 60 Showings 394 +140 10322

0.068 Taylor Swift Friday Day 2

T-59 Friday 141 Showings 330 +175 25272

0.113 Taylor Swift Saturday Day 2

T-60 Saturday 142 Showings 239 +114 25145

0.151 Taylor Swift Sunday Day 2

T-61 Sunday 134 Showings 51 +25 24180

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-57 Thursday

60 Showings

471

+77

10325

0.075

Taylor Swift Friday Day 3

T-58 Friday

141 Showings

420

+90

25279

0.131

Taylor Swift Saturday Day 3

T-59 Saturday

142 Showings

288

+49

24341

0.157

Taylor Swift Sunday Day 3

T-60 Sunday

134 Showings

67

+16

24184

keysersoze123 · October 4, 2023

Freddy's is super strong everywhere. So only show count is the issue at big chains. I hope they resolve it earlier than final week when most movies have a big jump in shows.

Hilts · October 4, 2023

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 is actually under indexing big time for this despite it have a nice pace. It needs major increase in shows before I can see bigger previews like what you or @Porthos are seeing. We may have to wait until closer to release before that happens.

Sorry yeah realised my typo at the same time and edited my post - cheers.

18 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

Wonderful, thank you for responding! So By down the middle you mean more than 24 but obviously less than Oppenheimer?

also, I’m glad people in the area are excited to see the movie. That’s very cool.

Less than Oppenheimer but not really sure of the lower bound yet as my data has not been especially helpful for that. Given the long runtime and outside of summer this should be strong on the weekend as opposed to the Thursday preview number, so hoping for a good multiplier. Been seeing around $30m-$40m as a good target for OW.

Jake4 · October 4, 2023

28 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-57 Thursday 60 Showings 471 +77 10325

0.075 Taylor Swift Friday Day 3

T-58 Friday 141 Showings 420 +90 25279

0.131 Taylor Swift Saturday Day 3

T-59 Saturday 142 Showings 288 +49 24341

0.157 Taylor Swift Sunday Day 3

T-60 Sunday 134 Showings 67 +16 24184

Renaissance seems to be holding up well. I am sure closer to date it will pick up more. I believe someone said it could do 40m opening weekend?

TheFlatLannister · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

Thursday Previews

T-2

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

154

1009

27238

3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

147

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-2

(3.086x) of Boogeyman~$3.39M THUR Previews

(1.512x) of Nun II~$4.69M THUR Previews

(2.014x) of Saw X~$4.03M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $4.04M

So a very nice increase locally. Maybe its just overindexing here

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

Thursday Previews

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	1135	27238	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

126

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-1

(2.816x) of Boogeyman~$3.09M THUR Previews

(1.381x) of Nun II~$4.28M THUR Previews

(1.793x) of Saw X~$3.59M THUR Previews

(2.379x) of Venice~$2.86M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $3.46M

Comps are all over the place so I'm not so sure but it looks like $3M-$3.5M previews

TheFlatLannister · October 4, 2023

On 10/3/2023 at 6:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

Thursday Previews

T-24

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

154

1445

28366

5.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

309

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-24

(1.743x) of Mi7 ~$12.20M THUR Previews

(1.309x) of Oppenheimer ~$13.74M THUR Previews

(1.461x) of RoTB ~$12.86M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.93M

Day 3 was even better than day 2. Going to add Flash comp tmrw

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

Thursday Previews

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
159	1632	29461	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

187

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-23

(1.885x) of Mi7 ~$13.19M THUR Previews

(1.024x) of Flash~$9.94M THUR Previews

(1.461x) of RoTB ~$12.86M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.00M

Pace is so nuts this far out. I mean its easily beating Barbie's T-23 pace lol

TheFlatLannister · October 4, 2023

On 10/3/2023 at 6:35 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Thursday Previews

T-17

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

145

455

24356

1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-17

(0.373x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.92M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Thursday Previews

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	469	24356	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-16

(0.359x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.77M THUR Previews

(1.083x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.57M THUR Previews

TheFlatLannister · October 4, 2023

On 10/3/2023 at 6:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ

Thursday Previews

T-58

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

158

1221

31688

3.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

179

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

Probably not going to dedicate a full track to this

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ

Thursday Previews

T-57

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
158	1257	31688	4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

0.130x of TET day 3

TheFlatLannister · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FRIDAY

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

T-10

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

226

11617

43831

26.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

20

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews:

(0.865x) of Barbie ~$18.26M FRIDAY for TET

(1.040x) of ATSV~$18.04M FRIDAY for TET

(1.734x) of TLM~$17.86M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.99M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $25.27M

T-10 comps

(1.909x) of GOTG3~$33.41M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $46.77M

Massive decrease against comp today

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FRIDAY

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11667	43831	26.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

20

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews:

(0.869x) of Barbie ~$18.34M FRIDAY for TET

(1.044x) of ATSV~$18.12M FRIDAY for TET

(1.742x) of TLM~$17.94M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $18.13M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $25.38M

T-9 comps

(1.876x) of GOTG3~$32.84M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $45.98M

Volume is excellent, but pace...
Russian Reaction GIF

abracadabra1998 · October 4, 2023

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

The Exorcist: Believer (T-2):

Day: T-2 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 20 theaters 76 78 273 13373 2.04

Comps:

1.28x The Nun II: $3.97 Million

1.11x Saw X: $2.23 Million

0.91x Insidious Red Door: $4.56 Million

1.51x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.87 Million

2.65x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $1.99 Million

Comp Average: $2.92 Million

Huuuge drop since last updates. 78 new seats over 2 days is not good, and while I understand this burnt out demand over the last few weeks, not ramping up at this point is a bad sign. Final comps and prediction tomorrow.

Joining the Bey party on Thursday, it's all I can handle at the moment!

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

The Exorcist: Believer (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	80	65	338	13929	2.43

Growth Rate (%):

1-Day:	23.81

3-Day:	73.33

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.29x The Nun II: $3.98 Million (23%, 128%)

Saw X: Missed

0.82x Insidious Red Door: $4.1 Million (37%, 152%)

1.1x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.37 Million (38%, 145%, Just Thursday)

2.45x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $1.84 Million (34%, 130%)

Comp Average: $2.82 Million

Comps are all over the place and I get that the sales window makes the growth rate comps a bit useless, but let's go with $2.75 Million, +/- 0.15. That would mean less than $30 Million OW with what I am assuming will be bad WOM, so I am going to join @Shawn's side on this one, sorry @M37.

HummingLemon496 · October 4, 2023

FNAF tracking has showed me to never underestimate ~~James Cameron~~ u/RelevationAnimations

He was COMPLETELY correct about The Flash and Barbie. And it looks like he's also correct about FNAF. Seems to be good at predicting mega-hits and complete bombs, as well as distinguishing between astroturfing vs genuine excitement.

Edited October 4, 2023 by HummingLemon496

XXRDJisDoctorDoom · October 4, 2023

23 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

FNAF tracking has showed me to never underestimate ~~James Cameron~~ u/RelevationAnimations

He was COMPLETELY correct about The Flash and Barbie. And it looks like he's also correct about FNAF. Seems to be good at predicting mega-hits and complete bombs, as well as distinguishing between astroturfing vs genuine excitement.

I don't think I've ever seen a Stan account for a forum user but....

How's that $300M OW for Eras looking?

The Wild Eric · October 5, 2023

1 minute ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I don't think I've ever seen a Stan account for a forum user but....

How's that $300M OW for Eras looking?

XXR is so based. Slay!

*insert fancam here*

HummingLemon496 · October 5, 2023

3 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I don't think I've ever seen a Stan account for a forum user but....

How's that $300M OW for Eras looking?

Not looking good. Ok this user isn't correct all the time but it is interesting how uncannily accurate some of his predictions are

0.949	The Flash Day 3	9.20M
0.295	Guardians 3 T-23	5.16M
1.592	Black Adam Day 3	12.10M

1.306	The Flash Day 3	12.67M
0.285	Guardians 3 T-23	4.99M
2.551	Black Adam Day 3	19.39M

1.545	The Flash Day 3	22.86M
0.264	Guardians 3 T-24	8.08M
2.370	Black Adam Day 3	45.24M

0.977	The Flash Day 3	15.33M
0.128	Guardians 3 T-25	4.96M
1.172	Black Adam Day 3	27.79M

0.655	The Flash Day 3	10.15M
0.075	Guardians 3 T-26	2.34M
1.116	Black Adam Day 3	18.52M

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	76	78	273	13373	2.04

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