The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-30 Thursday

168 Showings

1590

+1590

25199

ATP:

17.53

1.563	The Flash 6.5 hours	15.17M
0.319	Guardians 3 11 hours	5.59M
0.441	Ant-Man 3 14 hours	7.72M

 

T-31 Friday

225 Showings

1017

+1017

35187

ATP:

17.35

1.956	The Flash 6.5 hours	28.95M
0.346	Guardians 3 11 hours	10.59M
0.555	Ant-Man 3 14 hours	16.05M

 

T-32 Saturday

233 Showings

763

+763

36215

ATP:

15.98

1.825	The Flash 6.5 hours	28.66M
0.233	Guardians 3 11 hours	9.06M
0.496	Ant-Man 3 14 hours	16.83M

 

T-33 Sunday

218 Showings

298

+298

33942

ATP:

14.89

1.763	The Flash 6.5 hours	27.33M
0.232	Guardians 3 11 hours	7.29M
0.685	Ant-Man 3 14 hours	17.66M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-29 Thursday

168 Showings

1975

+385

25199

ATP:

17.50

1.359	The Flash Day 2	13.18M
0.354	Guardians 3 Day 2	6.19M
0.298	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.21M

 

T-30 Friday

225 Showings

1351

+334

35187

ATP:

17.26

1.612	The Flash Day 2	23.86M
0.378	Guardians 3 Day 2	11.56M
0.306	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	8.86M

 

T-31 Saturday

233 Showings

1144

+381

36215

ATP:

16.07

1.571	The Flash Day 2	24.67M
0.292	Guardians 3 Day 2	11.36M
0.265	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	8.98M

 

T-32 Sunday

218 Showings

404

+106

33942

ATP:

15.16

1.398	The Flash Day 2	21.67M
0.239	Guardians 3 Day 2	7.50M
0.261	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	6.74M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-30 Thursday

158 Showings

321

+321

25527

0.939

The Flash 6.5 hours

9.10M

 

T-31 Friday

242 Showings

87

+87

39777

0.635

The Flash 6.5 hours

9.40M

 

T-32 Saturday

246 Showings

122

+122

40189

1.356

The Flash 6.5 hours

21.28M

 

T-33 Sunday

241 Showings

43

+43

39434

2.150

The Flash 6.5 hours

33.33M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-29 Thursday

158 Showings

465

+144

25528

0.814

The Flash Day 2

7.90M

 

T-30 Friday

242 Showings

201

+114

39782

0.744

The Flash Day 2

11.02M

 

T-31 Saturday

246 Showings

156

+34

40184

0.825

The Flash Day 2

12.96M

 

T-32 Sunday

241 Showings

56

+13

39429

0.933

The Flash Day 2

14.47M

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

.Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-30 *First 12ish hours 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1619	50028	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(0.432x) of GOTG3~$7.55M THUR Previews

(1.016x) of Flash~$9.89M THUR Previews

(1.227x) of Indy 5~$8.84M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.76M

 

Don't want to be a doomposter, but ummm this is a bad start for an MCU title. Defintely does not feel like a $100M opener so far. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1729	50028	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

110

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(0.448x) of GOTG3~$7.83M THUR Previews

(1.129x) of Indy 5~$8.13M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $7.98M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	2243	31126	7.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

51

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(1.119x) of Flash~$10.86M THUR Previews

(0.791x) of ATSV ~$13.73M THUR Previews

(1.624x) of Fast X~$12.18M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.26M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	2326	31126	7.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

83

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(1.095x) of Flash~$10.62M THUR Previews

(0.775x) of ATSV ~$13.45M THUR Previews

(1.633x) of Fast X~$12.25M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.11M

 

For a "horror" film, daily pace is so nuts 

[HummingLemon496]

FNAF previews > 2x The Marvels previews or it's a bust

Edited October 11, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/10/2023 at 7:09 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	548	24356	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.325x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.42M THUR Previews

(0.470x) of Mi7 ~$3.29M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.36M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	553	24356	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.302x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.18M THUR Previews

(0.457x) of Mi7 ~$3.20M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.19M 

 

I'm thinking of switching comps tmrw, idk I just feel like Oppy and Mi7 are too big scale wise to really capture KOTFM. Let me know what y'all think can work comp wise 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/10/2023 at 7:07 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	12123	43831	27.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

44

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

21

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.498x) of GOTG3~$26.23M FRIDAY for TET

(2.015x) of ATSV~$34.97M FRIDAY for TET

(2.940x) of TLM~$30.29M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.576x) of Barbie~$33.25M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $31.19M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $43.66M

 

Probably heading to $35M Friday based on comps, maybe even lower. Anyways, the bleeding is getting worse 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	12226	43831	27.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

103

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

21

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.410x) of GOTG3~$24.67M FRIDAY for TET

(1.806x) of ATSV~$31.34M FRIDAY for TET

(2.617x) of TLM~$29.96M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.374x) of Barbie~$28.99M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $28.74M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $40.24M

 

Decreased by $3M vs comps today 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

24 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	553	24356	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.302x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.18M THUR Previews

(0.457x) of Mi7 ~$3.20M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.19M 

 

I'm thinking of switching comps tmrw, idk I just feel like Oppy and Mi7 are too big scale wise to really capture KOTFM. Let me know what y'all think can work comp wise 

Do older audiences tend to do the whole presale thing? This feels like it will skew older. Oppenheimer is a good comp but not mission impossible. Off the top of my head can’t really think of anything similar. 

[divesyn]

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by divesyn

[Bob Train]

27 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	553	24356	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.302x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.18M THUR Previews

(0.457x) of Mi7 ~$3.20M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.19M 

 

I'm thinking of switching comps tmrw, idk I just feel like Oppy and Mi7 are too big scale wise to really capture KOTFM. Let me know what y'all think can work comp wise 

Equalizer 3 and A Haunting in Venice could be interesting comps. They both had shorter PS window though I think.

[Bob Train]

4 minutes ago, divesyn said:

 

Welp, let's see if promotion directly from Tay Tay can make a dent. Thursday previews being added this late kinda fucks everything up though, comps-wise.

 

Already at 53k likes...

Edited October 11, 2023 by Bob Train

[Bobzaruni]

TET is now basically unpredictable lol

[Relevation]

5 minutes ago, divesyn said:

 

Well this is certainly a way to increase upfront demand plus it’s some well needed promo

Pretty much impossible to guess how Thurs ends up looking until we see some numbers tomorrow but this is a very interesting strategy 

[Bobzaruni]

Deadline

[vafrow]

That's the resolution to the mystery matinees we've had here in Canada. If early access shows will be available,then easy to justify early starts on Fridays.

 

Tone of the announcement is positioned to convince people that assume everything is sold out to actually check for tickets themselves.

 

Let's see how it plays out. 

[Bobzaruni]

100-120M is what I'm thinking 

[Bob Train]

Just when The Eras tour was falling into a (somewhat) predictable pattern...

 

This is in a pretty unprecedented situation. Not only is the movie not playing on weekdays, but it's looking to open $100m+, and Thursday previews were announced...Wednesday evening. Will be interesting to see how this affects holdovers.

We're in uncharted waters, I guess.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Bob Train

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/10/2023 at 6:59 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	165	181	13874	24615	56.36

 

Comps, no adjustments:

2.19x Barbie (w/ EA): $48.9 Million

4.18x Oppenheimer: $43.9 Million

6.4x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ all EA): 57.6 Million

 

These wild swings down are crazy, pace is obviously bad. Bunch of new shows in this last update, with final theater sets being decided, so I'm interested to see if those move the needle at all, especially at MTC1 where capacity is finally lower than 90%

 

The Marvels update for Minneapolis coming at around 11 PM CST, don't have any good comps but oh well

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	176	233	14107	25326	55.7

 

Comps, no adjustments:

1.91x Barbie (w/ EA): $42.6 Million

3.63x Oppenheimer: $38.1 Million

5.52x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ all EA): 49.7 Million

 

Guessing this will end up at around $35 Million or so average, but with growth rate comps being obviously terrible, I would predict something like high 20s, which would mean a Friday number of high 30s, low 40s ATP adjusted. We'll see these last two days but I don't think anything can really change, more capacity added (40 shows added in the last two days) has not translated into more sales and that won't change at this point.

 

The Marvels day 2 update coming in at 10/10:30 PM CST

 

[abracadabra1998]

17 minutes ago, divesyn said:

 

 

Read this as soon as I posted my update, WTF!!!! I guess disregard my analysis lolololol, will add those numbers to tomorrow's update I guess

[misterpepp]

I got word earlier this afternoon that this would potentially be happening, but I didn't post anything because I was a little skeptical that they would actually go through with it. Truthfully, it's a little bit of a stab in the back to the fans.

 

I've heard from a pal that there's some upset/discourse around this. Quite a few fans bought non-refundable tickets to the earliest show possible thinking they were getting to see it first. Now, at the last minute, they find out that there's an earlier showing they would have to pay for again and have to re-coordinate with friends within a 24-hour period. Plus, all the exclusive merchandise goes on sale on Thurs night now, so there's a chance the early fans and scalpers will cause the merch to sell out before the original "opening night".

 

There's an extra bit of info that I was told not to share, but I think it might remedy the situation for some.

Edited October 12, 2023 by datpepper