The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Madhuvan]

15 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Took a look back on what Encanto and Strange World pulled for their TUE previews to 5-day opening multipliers, aaaaaand

 

Encanto - $1.5M previews to $40.56M 5-day (27.04x IM)

Strange World - $800K previews to $18.86M 5-day (23.58x IM)

 

So with those comps in mind, if Wish sales are exceeding Elemental in comps at all, then it’s in very good shape for a potential $60M+ debut ($2.4M+ with 25x IM goes to $60M)

Wish doing 60m would be awesome.

[Grand Cine]

4 hours ago, datpepper said:

Wish on sale Oct 13

It's very early for a animated movie and i think the timing isn't good , only 3 days after the Marvels, the same day of The Eras Tour , before the weekend. He will be only until Tuesday where The Trolls 3 begin their presale .

 

I think the comp for the movie are Elemental , of course , Encanto in his last days , and Ninja Turtles ,without Early Access, because he debuted a Wednesday

[DAJK]

45 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I always said Taylor sales will be heavily frontloaded cause that's how we buy her album for first week. I don't think it's disappointment in any manner.

If it doesn’t get the Oct record I would consider it a disappointment for a number of reasons.

 

I actually really like @Eric MacNeil’s sentiment about how it doesn’t really madder how much profit billionaire studios and CEOs make, and what the budget was. What I care about is movie theaters: ticket sales leading to concession sales that keep the exhibition industry alive. When this was announced, it filled a gaping void in October, and was an excellent sign for theaters. While 100M would be nothing to scoff at, and would certainly make Taylor a pretty penny, she still is in that category of “mega millionaires/billionaires who I couldn’t care less how much profit they make.” Same with Tom Cruise for example, him personally earning 100M+ from Maverick is a “good for him” from me and little else. All I really care about is keeping the exhibition industry alive, I couldn’t care less how much money these billionaires make in profits.

[Borobudur]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yea the new app sucks and makes tracking 1000x harder. Up until Nov 2022 the website made it super easy to track multiple theaters at once, but then it changed. Awful change, and I know a lot of people at the company who hate it too lol.

Do they purposely make it harder so that less tracking of the BO going on and restrict the bad buzz about of poor presale? 

[Grand Cine]

17 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Took a look back on what Encanto and Strange World pulled for their TUE previews to 5-day opening multipliers, aaaaaand

 

Encanto - $1.5M previews to $40.56M 5-day (27.04x IM)

Strange World - $800K previews to $18.86M 5-day (23.58x IM)

 

So with those comps in mind, if Wish sales are exceeding Elemental in comps at all, then it’s in very good shape for a potential $60M+ debut ($2.4M+ with 25x IM goes to $60M)

I think Wish could be a surprise like Elemental , I think he could make a 35M/55M in the opening week, so above Encanto and have a good run if the movie has good reviews like almost animated movie have this year .

 

The two issues for me is the competition with The Trolls 3 , and the sharing of screen, if the movie has imax or premium screen , because he has got Napoleon and Hunger Games in the equation .

 

I think the animated movie ( Trolls 3 , Wish and Migration) could surprise , same for Wonka or Color People, like FNAF

[Jsmitty]

18 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think Wish could be a surprise like Elemental , I think he could make a 35M/55M in the opening week, so above Encanto and have a good run if the movie has good reviews like almost animated movie have this year .

 

The two issues for me is the competition with The Trolls 3 , and the sharing of screen, if the movie has imax or premium screen , because he has got Napoleon and Hunger Games in the equation .

 

I think the animated movie ( Trolls 3 , Wish and Migration) could surprise , same for Wonka or Color People, like FNAF

Animation is needed as such a powerhouse genre, I hope all 3 are smash hits but get the sense now that illumation has the Mario might behind it. Migration may be the best performer of the bunch. Very curious numbers wise.

[Zakiyyah6]

1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

I always said Taylor sales will be heavily frontloaded cause that's how we buy her album for first week. I don't think it's disappointment in any manner.

Yep, I'm a huge Taylor Swift fan as well and her stuff is very frontloaded. That's just common knowledge if you look into it. 

[keysersoze123]

Only data I have been able to get and its not full data for MTC2. 

 

MTC2 The Marvels Previews - 8965/429144 138860.77 2628 shows

[Madhuvan]

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yep, I'm a huge Taylor Swift fan as well and her stuff is very frontloaded. That's just common knowledge if you look into it. 

Yup for first week it's always been frontloaded for her then after that it stabilizes and stays there forever 

 

I am not surprised by frontloaded PS cause I always expected that. 80m+ dom OW sounds great to me. And if it reaches 100m that's phenomenal 

[charlie Jatinder]

The Marvels MiniTC2 T-30

 

Previews - 546/67203 (244 showings)

 

Comps
0.35x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $6M

0.19x GoTG 3 first day - $3.25M 

0.53x Eternals first day - $5M

1.16x Shang Chi first day - $10M

 

MCU drop continues. 2nd lowest start for a MCU film, though Shang Chi under indexed in the region, so nationwide could be under Shang Chi as well.

Edited October 11, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-16: 44.99% Awareness

Priscilla T-23: 25.44%

The Wise Guys T-114: 14.17%

Furiosa T-226: 16.34%

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-261: 21.04%

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-2: 47.16% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

 

The Marvels T-30: 48.68% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 44% chance of 50M, 39% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 90M, 17% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 90M, 25% chance of 100M

 

Journey to Bethlehem T-30: 18.72% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Trolls Band Together T-37: 43.86% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 44% chance of 50M, 39% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 90M, 17% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

 

Godzilla Minus One T-51: 12.6% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[Willowra]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Marvels MiniTC2 T-30

 

Previews - 546/67203 (244 showings)

 

Comps
0.35x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $6M

0.19x GoTG 3 first day - $3.25M 

0.53x Eternals first day - $5M

1.16x Shang Chi first day - $10M

 

MCU drop continues. 2nd lowest start for a MCU film, though Shang Chi under indexed in the region, so nationwide could be under Shang Chi as well.

7m previews 45m OW 100m Dom total. 

Either this movie will end Captain Marvel's run in the MCU or Captain Marvel will make sure Avengers do less than 200m DOM total.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13445	15048	1603	10.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

94

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	165.43		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	29.42%		14.72m
AtSV	92.02		60	1742		0/123	18177/19919	8.75%		9744	16.45%		15.97m
GOTG3	46.69		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	14.91%		8.17m
Flash	148.15		72	1082		0/178	24066/25148	4.30%		5327	30.09%		14.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     400/3078  [13.00% sold]
Matinee:    156/926  [16.85% | 9.73% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13561	15271	1710	11.20%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	223
Total Seats Sold Today	107

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	217.01		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	38.05%		16.28m
Scrm6	323.25		39	529		0/68	7359/7888	6.71%		3134	54.56%		18.43m
Wick4	167.16		54	1023		0/88	12307/13330	7.67%		5448	31.39%		14.88m
AtSV	93.90		79	1821		0/123	18098/19919	9.14%		9744	17.55%		16.29m
GOTG3	49.17		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		10750	15.91%		8.60m
Flash	153.23		34	1116		0/178	24032/25148	4.44%		5327	32.10%		14.86m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     403/3078  [13.09% sold]
Matinee:    157/926  [16.95% | 9.18% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 10/10/2023 at 12:25 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	176	13472	22408	8936	39.88%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	22
Total Net Seats Added Today	2405
Total Seats Sold Today	118

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	43.54		774	20522		1/325	18598/39120	52.46%		28183	31.71%		21.77m	31.57m
MoM	62.26		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	42.32%		22.41m	32.50m
Thor 4	93.48		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	52.68%		27.11m	39.31m
BP2	88.18		618	10134		2/308	27930/38064	26.62%		16800	53.19%		24.69m	35.80m
AM3	135.11		303	6614		0/251	27082/33696	19.63%		10475	85.31%		23.64m	34.28m
GOTG3	156.25		506	5719		0/227	26231/31950	17.90%		10750	83.13%		27.34m	39.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-4 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	148.41		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	76.01%
JWD	169.63		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	81.49%
Ava 2	175.42		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	99.44%
AtSV	226.63		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	91.71%
Barbie	157.74		625	5665		1/180	16083/21748	26.05%		12077	73.99%
Oppy	363.25		259	2460		0/77	8096/10556	23.30%		4621	193.38%
Barben	109.98		884	8125		1/257	24179/32304	25.15%		16698	53.52%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2480/7601  [32.63% sold]

 

====

 

Expanded (final?) sets went up at about half the theaters in the region, so now we'll see if there is any real movement or not.  Plus seeing if any of the other theaters also update their slates in the next couple of days.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	205	15480	24572	9092	37.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today	29
Total Seats Added Today	2164
Total Seats Sold Today	156

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	42.39		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	32.26%		21.20m	30.73m
MoM	59.08		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	43.06%		21.27m	30.84m
Thor 4	89.94		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	53.60%		26.08m	37.82m
BP2	82.30		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	54.12%		23.04m	33.41m
AM3	128.27		474	7088		0/269	28018/35106	20.19%		10475	86.80%		22.45m	32.55m
GOTG3	144.18		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	84.58%		25.23m	36.59m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-3 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	134.32		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	77.33%
JWD	149.96		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	82.91%
Ava 2	163.91		453	5547		0/277	27377/32924	16.85%		8986	101.18%
AtSV	203.90		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	93.31%
Barbie	138.32		908	6573		1/180	19138/25711	25.56%		12077	75.28%
Oppy	323.44		351	2811		0/78	7745/10556	26.63%		4621	196.75%
Barben	96.89		1259	9384		1/258	26883/36267	25.87%		16698	54.45%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2499/8588  [29.10% sold]

 

====

 

Well, showtimes have definitely been added!  Now that the horse has been led to water, will they actually drink?  Find out over the next three days, I suppose.

[Porthos]

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	26760	27313	553	2.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

553

 

Day 1 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	63.27		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	8.63%		6.80m
GOTG3	29.23		1892	1892		0/205	27676/29568	6.40%		10750	5.14%		5.11m
TLM	121.81		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	2.07%		6561	8.43%		12.55m
AtSV	54.27		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	5.68%		9.42m
Flash	86.41		640	640		0/158	21727/22367	2.86%		5327	10.38%		8.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        47/8661  [0.54% sold]
Matinee:    19/2547  [0.75% | 3.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            30/4901  [0.61% | 5.42% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not much to say which hasn't already been said.  All around a (very) soft start.

 

Do have some notes though.  As I suspected, The Little Mermaid is a pretty unsuitable comp, but I added it by @TwoMisfits request.  Quite likely will disappear in short order.

 

Do actually have something to say about the Eternals comp.  That actually started out relatively strongly (for the era) before it all but nose dived when reviews started to roll in.  So something to keep in mind as it's plausible for The Marvels to climb against it.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is pre-sale length:

 

Eternals:        25 days of pre-sales

GOTG3:         32 days of pre-sales

TLM:              30 days of pre-sales

AtSV:              25 days of pre-sales

The Flash:      24 days of pre-sales

The Marvels:  31 days of pre-sales

 

Some are closer than others, but with relatively so few sales, that gets magnified. 

 

Still, is what it is.  Anything else is (more) commentary.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

3 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Do they purposely make it harder so that less tracking of the BO going on and restrict the bad buzz about of poor presale? 

 

Doubtful. They're not thinking about tracking at all in their decision making. Just maximizing sales.

 

I dislike the changes of the app because of the lack of displaying total sales. But, the new version does integrate more Cineplex services for sale in one place. It promotes events at their restaurants/entertainment centres. It links to their streaming. They also made it easier to preview available seats and then transition to buying. The old app required you to back out of preview mode and then go into the purchase screen.

 

 

The biggest upcoming films for sale at better promoted. It's easier to browse through titles.

 

It sucks for my purposes, but it's easy to see why Cineplex would view it as an improvement.

 

 

 

 

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

7m previews 45m OW 100m Dom total. 

Either this movie will end Captain Marvel's run in the MCU or Captain Marvel will make sure Avengers do less than 200m DOM total.

That's a big assumption about a movie that's at least 3 years away that we don't even know if Captain Marvel is even in.

[vafrow]

I did a showtime check on Taylor Swift for this Friday. For my region, covering a radius that grabs most of the greater Toronto area for MTC4, showtimes available for sale went from 80 to 131 across 34 theatres. There's still a couple of theatres that haven't updated yet though.

 

This also doesn't include matinee sales that are no longer available for sale, but, appear to still be going through.

 

It's not evenly distributed, so some theatres didn't get an additional show, but for the most part, there should be sufficient capacity for whatever walk up demand there will be. Theatres were being added around 7;00 pm tonight, and just eyeballing things, I haven't seen any sales in the new showtimes yet.

[AN9815]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

7m previews 45m OW 100m Dom total. 

Either this movie will end Captain Marvel's run in the MCU or Captain Marvel will make sure Avengers do less than 200m DOM total.

Too high, this movie will make $5m OW / $15m DOM and Secret Wars will be lucky to make $150m WW

[charlie Jatinder]

Hopefully Marvel take realisation from their failure in 2022 and 2023, the future is better.