The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Maybe Mean Girls and Hunger Games , also maybe Wonka .

Definitely weaker than HG. Way stronger than other 2 for sure. But this could be frontloaded if book fans are driving the early shows. Wonka played like a family movie releasing close to holidays. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/11/2024 at 7:03 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-35

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
459	820	94099	0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

(0.768x) of Quiet Place One $5.22M

 

35 days out, this is a pretty good start

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
481	2544	100057	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-16

(1.306x) of Quiet Place One $8.88M

 

This is running crazy hot in Florida. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
481	2544	100057	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-16

(1.306x) of Quiet Place One $8.88M

 

This is running crazy hot in Florida. 

 

Don't wanna get ahead of myself but with the current numbers, Romulus might break Prometheus' record of biggest opening for an Alien movie (unadjusted of course). 50M+ in the cards?

[Grand Cine]

At T-10 :

 

Hunger Games :

Previews - 27214/348070 523072.36 1850 shows +2418

Friday - 24285/498219 453005.59 2596 shows +2658

 

At T-9 :

 

Wonka :

Previews -18438/471830 336014.68 2241 shows

Friday - 15895/725701 274741.53 3383 shows 

Mean Girls :

Thursday - 6704/196869 108761.70 1103 shows

Friday - 8871/321548 140154.77 1743 shows

 

Globally , It End with US at T-10 is at the level of Mean Girls T-4 ( for previews) and between T-4 and T-5. For Wonka , It Ends with US T-11 is at the same level as T-6 even if it's more a family movie with walkup better than the former.

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TRAP

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	1421	73044	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(2.534x) of Watchers $2.53M 

(1.302x) of Night Swim $1.95M 

COMPS AVG: $2.24M

 

Seems like ~$2M+ to me. Pretty good

FLORIDA 

 

TRAP

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	1814	73044	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

393

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(2.595x) of Watchers $2.60M 

(0.934x) of Long Legs $3.08M 

COMPS AVG: $2.84M

 

Could be~$3M previews. Dang

[misterpepp]

The just-announced Usher: Rendezvous in Paris will go on sale August 6

[Flip]

On 7/28/2024 at 10:04 PM, Flip said:

Alien: Romulus (T-18) 7 days of sales 

 

6 showtimes/44 tix sold (+18)

 

.32x AQP D1 (T-18) [2.18m]

 

good growth especially over the weekend 

Alien: Romulus (T-16) 2 days of sales 

 

10 showtimes/81 tix sold (+37)

 

.55x A Quiet Place D1 (T-16) [3.74m]

1.59x Trap* (T-16) [???]

 

after a bad start sales are finally picking up + distributors are putting a lot of faith in it.

 

*this was Trap’s first day

[Flip]

On 7/29/2024 at 10:31 PM, Flip said:

Trap Previews (T-3)

 

8 showtimes/242 tix sold (+31)

 

.73x AQP Day One (T-3) [5.1m]

3.31x The Watchers (T-3) [3.31m]

.96x Longlegs (T-3) [2.88m]

 

Ok day. For some reason this is still only showing in two theaters while Harold and the Purple Crayon is showing in all 3 with much less sales? Hoping for at least 60 tickets on Tuesday.

Trap Previews (T-2)

 

8 showtimes/284 tix sold (+42)

 

.67x AQP Day One (T-2) [4.56m]

3.23x The Watchers (T-2) [3.23m]

.87x Longlegs (T-2) [2.61m]

 

Growth is stagnating since the prime time shows are near capacity so every comp dropped. Hopefully more shows are added because otherwise there’s not much room to grow.

[Flip]

On 7/28/2024 at 10:18 PM, Flip said:

It Ends With Us Previews (T-11)

 

4 showtimes/64 tickets sold (+12)

 

.72x Trap Previews (T-11) [???]

.37x AQP D1 Previews (T-11) [2.52m]

 

Mainly comping with Trap since that will be handy for pace + I have it daily. I’m not tracking EA since I haven’t before, but at one showing there is 48 tickets sold.

It Ends With Us Previews (T-9) two days of sales

 

4 showtimes/123 tickets sold (+59)

 

1.02x Trap Previews (T-9) [???]

.60x AQP D1 Previews (T-9) [4.08m]

1.03x Bad Boys 4 (T-9) [6.03m]
3.62x The Watchers (T-9) [3.62m]
 

Throwing everything at the wall right now, but pace is starting to pick up (even if it’s still soundly below other markets)

[Flip]

It Ends with Us Friday (T-10)

 

10 showtimes/123 tickets sold

 

No comps right now, but it is ahead of Trap at T-7

 

Good thurs-fri ratio

[Flip]

On 7/28/2024 at 10:23 PM, Flip said:

Trap Friday (T-5)

 

10 showtimes/164 tix sold

 

.24x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-5) [12.13m]

 

inside out is not a good comp, but it’s the best one I have (until T-3 when Longlegs kicks in)

Trap Friday (T-3) two days of sales

 

11 showtimes/246 tix sold (+82)

 

.26x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [13.14m]

.76x Longlegs Friday (T-3) [5.33m]

 

similar situation to Previews where there’s constraints, but on a smaller level. Longlegs had a fair level of over indexing so that comp is almost surely underestimating. Tomorrow I’ll hope for 75+ tickets sold

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/29/2024 at 9:43 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	76	78	273	7437	3.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		219	55	80.22
Other chains:		54	23	19.78

 

Comps:

2.73x Watchers: $2.73 Million

2.65x Abigail: $2.65 Million

3.45x Imaginary: $2.5 Million (17 theaters)

1.57x Haunting in Venice (THU): $1.73 Million (17 theaters)

3.98x Last Voyage of Demeter: $2.99 Million (17 theaters)

 

Great update! Went up against every comp, if it keeps this pace up I can see $3 Million previews!

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	79	8	27	6710	0.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		11	1	40.74
Other chains:		16	7	59.26

 

Comps:

0.21x Garfield Movie (THU): $405k

0.13x IF: $235k

0.42x Ruby Gilman: $305k (12 theaters)

 

Nothing to say here, total garbage

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	102	95	368	9392	3.92

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		287	68	77.99
Other chains:		81	27	22.01

 

Comps:

2.92x Watchers: $2.92 Million

2.77x Abigail: $2.77 Million

3.87x Imaginary: $2.8 Million (17 theaters)

1.71x Haunting in Venice (THU): $1.89 Million (17 theaters)

3.59x Last Voyage of Demeter: $2.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

Good pace, still targeting $2.75-3 Million previews from what I see here

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	98	15	42	8358	0.5

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		15	4	35.71
Other chains:		27	11	64.29

 

Comps:

0.27x Garfield Movie (THU): $525k

0.21x IF: $365k

0.51x Ruby Gilman: $375k (12 theaters)

 

Maybe targeting $500k previews, if that

[Rorschach]

On 7/29/2024 at 11:06 PM, Rorschach said:

Trap (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 23/456 (5% sold)

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $1.77M

Quiet Place: $2.61M

Longlegs: $1.82M

Avg: $2.07M

 

Friday: 

11 2D showings: 22/845 (2.6% sold)

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $3.49M

Quiet Place: $5.86M

Longlegs: $2.49M

Avg: $3.95M

 

Thurs + Fri: 45/1,301 (3.5% sold)

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $5.23M

Quiet Place: $8.52M

Longlegs: $4.51M

Avg: $6.09M

Trap (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

6 Thursday showings: 31/456 (6.8% sold) [+8]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $1.82M

Quiet Place: $3.01M

Longlegs: $2.07M

Avg: $2.3M

 

11 Friday showings: 35/845 (4.1% sold) [+13]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $4.16M

Quiet Place: $5.14M

Longlegs: $2.56M

Avg: $3.95M

 

Thurs + Fri: 66/1,301 (5.1% sold) [+21]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $5.81M

Quiet Place: $8.4M

Longlegs: $4.69M

Avg: $6.3M

[Ryan C]

 

On 7/28/2024 at 7:02 PM, Ryan C said:

Trap

 

T-4

 

Thursday: 1189 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 7:00PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: The same 14 theaters I used to track It Ends With Us, I used to track this movie. Since the release date is much closer, more tickets were sold but I just gotta say, I am seriously impressed by this. 

 

At worst, I can see a opening of $20M, but we could genuinely be looking at an opening of $30M if these pre-sales keep at this strong pace leading up to the release. 

 

At the very least, this should open higher than Shyamalan's last two films and could even get close to matching both Old ($16.854M) and Knock at the Cabin's ($14.127M) opening weekends combined. 

 

Trap

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 1,886 Seats Sold (58.6% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 12:25AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Yeah, we should be prepared for this film to break out this upcoming weekend. The fact that it's accelerating at this kind of pace and without the help of reviews or very few early reactions is proof of that. Word-of-mouth will definitely be important for it going forward, but it's safe to say that on opening weekend, it won't necessarily need it to be Shyamalan's biggest opening since 2019's Glass. 

 

Also, by accepting more and more that this is less of a horror film and more of a thriller, that means that we could have two movies (including It Ends With Us) that breakout in late summer that aren't either based on some big IP or are part of the horror genre. 

 

It Ends with Us may be based on a extremely popular book and Trap may have the Shyamalan name attached to it, but for a thriller and an adult drama to already be setting themselves up for very strong opening weekends is insanely encouraging for two genres that you don't see everyday in theaters right now. 

Edited July 31 by Ryan C

[Rorschach]

On 7/29/2024 at 11:13 PM, Rorschach said:

Harold and the Purple Crayon (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 8/340 (2.4% sold)

 

Friday:

6 2D showings: 7/510 (1.4% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 15/850 (1.8% sold)

 

Comps: 

IF: $1.66M

Garfield: $2.07M

Avg: $1.87M

Harold and the Purple Crayon (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

4 Thursday showings: 12/340 (3.5% sold) [+4]

 

Comps:

IF: $429K

Garfield: $722K

Avg: $576K

 

6 Friday showings: 12/510 (2.4% sold) [+5]

 

Comps:

IF: $1.51M

Garfield: $1.94M

Avg: $1.73M

 

Thurs + Fri: 24/850 (2.8% sold) [+9]

 

Comps: 

IF: $2.17M

Garfield: $2.81M

Avg: $2.49M

 

 

I guess you could call that a slight improvement from yesterday lol.

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trap MTC1

Previews - 20856/173504 297487.15 1674 shows

Friday - 13641/245501 196785.62 2280 shows

Saturday - 8825/251254 118238.29 2320 shows

 

MTC2 Previews - 3425/87596 44477.60 962 shows

Trap MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 24234/186655 346178.15 1816 shows +3378 

Friday - 17737/302657 253881.18 2763 shows +4096

 

MTC2 Previews(T-2) - 6089/132163 79246.01 1487 shows +2664

 

I am thinking low to mid 50s finish at MTC1 with good walkups. 

[Ryan C]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trap MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 24234/186655 346178.15 1816 shows +3378 

Friday - 17737/302657 253881.18 2763 shows +4096

 

MTC2 Previews(T-2) - 6089/132163 79246.01 1487 shows +2664

 

I am thinking low to mid 50s finish at MTC1 with good walkups. 

 

I'm sorry but did I hear that right? 

 

Low to mid 50s? You're not saying that Trap is gonna open in the $50M range, right?

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I'm sorry but did I hear that right? 

 

Low to mid 50s? You're not saying that Trap is gonna open in the $50M range, right?

50k tickets sold 

 

The OW is probably heading to 20-something imo

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

50k tickets sold 

 

The OW is probably heading to 20-something imo

 

Ok, that's what I figured. 

 

I just saw that and stopped for a minute. Like if that were to happen, that would be more impressive than what Inside Out 2 was able to open to. Lol!

[Relevation]

26 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Ok, that's what I figured. 

 

I just saw that and stopped for a minute. Like if that were to happen, that would be more impressive than what Inside Out 2 was able to open to. Lol!

Yeah Trap definitely ain’t going that high lol

 

It Ends With Us and Alien: Romulus on the other hand tho…