Taylor Swift || The Eras Tour Concert Film - October 13, 2023 | Comes to Disney+ w/ 5 bonus songs

[XXR & Friends]

I went ahead and moved a lot of the non-tracking convo about TET (which I partially started) from the tracking thread into here  

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon said:

Chances of TFA losing the crown?

[XXR & Friends]

@Relevation I'm rooting for your predictions but I'm having trouble seeing numbers that high, even with the engorged ATP. I'm willing to "settle" for 175/350.

[HummingLemon]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

This Revelation guy unironically thinks that could happen. Not that it means anything but he was correct about The Flash bombing and Barbie succeeding. He called $138M dom for Flash and $600M+ for Barbie. So this isn't just some bullshit source.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

This Revelation guy unironically thinks that could happen. Not that it means anything but he was correct about The Flash bombing and Barbie succeeding. He called $138M dom for Flash and $600M+ for Barbie. So this isn't just some bullshit source.

 

I'm fairly certain (meaning I've looked at their posts) that they made no such predictions for either film when they were still a month out. 

[HummingLemon]

9 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

I'm fairly certain (meaning I've looked at their posts) that they made no such predictions for either film when they were still a month out. 

He predicted Barbie $600M+ domestic on July 15th (nobody thought it would do this much that early) - 

 

 

He predicted The Flash $138M domestic on Feb 16th, 2023 (4 days before the Super Bowl Teaser)!

He also predicted Barbie $500M+ domestic two weeks out

 

He also said $500M domestic was possible for Barbie a full 3 weeks out

 

He's a reliable, passionate source with a prophetic vision of box office 

Edited September 15, 2023 by HummingLemon

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

He predicted Barbie $600M+ domestic on July 15th (nobody thought it would do this much that early) - 

 

 

He predicted The Flash $138M domestic on Feb 16th, 2023 (4 days before the Super Bowl Teaser)!

 

 

Ahh, Reddit. I forget some of y'all post there. Good calls but def not the first or oldest on either. 

 

I digress. We will see how high it does but I think presales would need to be much higher for it to hit $300M OW. NWH had $120M presales on a $260M OW but that included quite a lot of holiday spread. Eras Tour would likely need $175-200M in presales for a $300M OW. 

[jeffthehat]

@Relevation I think the max potential earning projection you did in the tracking  thread is a bit too bullish. Yesterday I took a sample of 100 theaters at random zip codes and got about 7 showing per theater on average. AMC is around 10 showings per theater, but others are averaging about 6.5. Still, 7 showings per theater at 4000 theaters would leave room for a $60m+ OD. I think it will be closer to 50, but def wouldn’t be surprised at a $200m+ OW. If I were a bookmaker I’d set the line for OW at $180m rn. 

[HummingLemon]

2 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

Ahh, Reddit. I forget some of y'all post there. Good calls but def not the first or oldest on either. 

 

I digress. We will see how high it does but I think presales would need to be much higher for it to hit $300M OW. NWH had $120M presales on a $260M OW but that included quite a lot of holiday spread. Eras Tour would likely need $175-200M in presales for a $300M OW. 

Yeah this guy might just be overly-optimistic about Taylor Swift lol

Edited September 15, 2023 by HummingLemon

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

I believe a 100+ opening would mean there is now no month to have never had a 100+ opening before.

 

Jan openers are always difficult to gauge due to December platform releases, but according to BOM:

 

Quote

Top Opening Weekends By Month
January	American Sniper	$89,269,066
February	Black Panther	$202,003,951
March	Beauty and the Beast	$174,750,616
April	Avengers: Endgame	$357,115,007
May	The Avengers	$207,438,708
June	Jurassic World	$208,806,270
July	The Lion King	$191,770,759
August	Suicide Squad	$133,682,248
September	It	$123,403,419
October	Joker	$96,202,337
November	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$181,339,761
December	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$260,138,569

 

Quote

Rank	Release	Opening	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross	Wide Date	Distributor

1	American Sniper	$89,269,066	25.5%	3,555	$25,110	$350,126,372	Jan 16, 2015	Warner Bros.
2	Bad Boys for Life	$62,504,105	30.3%	3,775	$16,557	$206,305,244	Jan 17, 2020	Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE)
3	Ride Along	$41,516,170	30.8%	2,663	$15,590	$134,938,200	Jan 17, 2014	Universal Pictures
4	Kung Fu Panda 3	$41,282,042	28.8%	3,955	$10,437	$143,528,619	Jan 29, 2016	Twentieth Century Fox
5	Glass	$40,328,920	36.3%	3,841	$10,499	$111,048,468	Jan 18, 2019	Universal Pictures

 

Still have January to conquer.  

Edited September 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Speedorito]

39 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

He predicted Barbie $600M+ domestic on July 15th (nobody thought it would do this much that early) - 

 

 

He predicted The Flash $138M domestic on Feb 16th, 2023 (4 days before the Super Bowl Teaser)!

He also predicted Barbie $500M+ domestic two weeks out

 

He also said $500M domestic was possible for Barbie a full 3 weeks out

 

He's a reliable, passionate source with a prophetic vision of box office 

You’re really treating this guy like he’s your god over two movies lol

[Relevation]

40 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

He's a reliable, passionate source with a prophetic vision of box office

Ok if I’m being completely honest I was only that bullish on Barbie largely because of the tracking I was following on here, but thanks for the credit

 

I wouldn’t go as far to say I’m a prophet but I like to think I’m good at calling mega-hits/flops in advance, and I really think Taylor Swift might have the juice to swing to unprecedented numbers.

[SpiderByte]

I could have sworn American Sniper was 100+...huh.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I could have sworn American Sniper was 100+...huh.

 

4day 100 wide opener for Sniper:

 

Quote

Dec 26-28	22	$633,456	-	4	-	$158,364	$873,667	1
Jan 2-4	23	$676,909	+6.9%	4	-	$169,227	$2,229,288	2
Jan 9-11	21	$579,518	-14.4%	4	-	$144,879	$3,174,669	3
Jan 16-18	1	$89,269,066	+15,304%	3,555	+3,551	$25,110	$92,693,844	4
Jan 16-19 MLK wknd	1	$107,211,457	-	3,555	-	$30,157	$110,636,235	-
Jan 23-25	1	$64,628,304	-27.6%	3,705	+150	$17,443	$200,400,417	5

 

And that's presuming one even counts it as a Jan opener as there is... debate over that due to the platform release in Dec.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Porthos

[HummingLemon]

9 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

You’re really treating this guy like he’s your god over two movies lol

[WorkingonaName]

Inshallah 

[vale9001]

7 hours ago, John2015 said:

But the TV spots campaign had already started.

 

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/5tkL/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-movie-trailer

for what i read until now they only showed it during the Vmas telecast. Something with just 3M viewers and i would say the core target of that show already knew about the movie.

With these pre sales numbes i guess they will invest on tv promotion, so spots on major networks but of course not 1 month before but like in the last week. 

[DTP]

I'm surprised the VMAs and MTV are still a thing 

[JustLurking]

8 hours ago, Relevation said:

Ok I’ll narrow it to like uh

$255-315M OW

$660-895M DOM

Put me down for easily below your low end on both predictions

[vale9001]

can we stop the set up?. This movie concert has made 55M pre sales. It's cominf for probably 120-130M first weekend. 

An incredible result will make box office history for its genre and for the way has been distributed and promoted. 

Now seems opening with these incredible numbers will be kinda disappointing cause people are comparing it to End Game and Avatar. Please 😅

 

I'm here for even a bigger weeend maybe. Like 150M - 160M. But these predictions about the legs make not sense.

Edited September 15, 2023 by vale9001