FNAF Weekend Thread (10/27-10/29) | $80m Opening Weekend | Blumhouse's Biggest Opener Ever | $14.7m The Eras Tour | $9.3m KOTFM

[ZeroHour]

27 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Ah, go - how many wholesome Halloween activities do teens and young adults get (this is why I gave in:)...yes, I also suggested Peacock and was told how wrong that would be!

Even the kids know there's nothing sadder than subscribing to Peacock!

[MovieMan89]

Super doom and gloom worst case scenario for the big ones this quarter if nothing is very well liked:

 

The Marvels: 37/80

Hunger Games: 22/55

Wish: 31 (5 day)/80

Napoleon: 15/42

Aquabro 2ude: 50 (5 day)/115

Wonka: 25/95

The Color Purple: 70 (too weird of an opening to predict OW) 

 

Of those scenarios, i honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Marvels, THG, Aqua, and Napoleon pretty much happen 

Edited October 27, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

Oh I forgot Trolls and Mogration… idk, if worst case pans out for both Wish and Wonka then I suppose either or both could breakout since they’re the kind of movies kids aren’t gonna say no to, even if there’s nothing there for adults. But given Wish and Wonka get great reception, they should easily be the go to choices. 

[Cmasterclay]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Super doom and gloom worst case scenario for the big ones this quarter if nothing is very well liked:

 

The Marvels: 37/80

Hunger Games: 22/55

Wish: 31 (5 day)/80

Napoleon: 15/42

Aquabro 2ude: 50 (5 day)/115

Wonka: 25/95

The Color Purple: 70 (too weird of an opening to predict OW) 

 

Of those scenarios, i honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Marvels, THG, Aqua, and Napoleon pretty much happen 

This post makes my posts look like a Teletubbies episode.

 

I'm feeling something with Napoleon. Everyone I know over 30 is talking about it and hyped as shit, much more than KOTFM. I don't love the Quorum or BO.com tracking numbers. But my anecdotal evidence and intuition is backed up by the trailer views and social metrics. If the movie hits 70 percent on RT (big if!), I really think it outopens KOTFM. Joaquin playing Napoleon in a movie from the guy who did Gladiator is a very easy pitch to make.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

This post makes my posts look like a Teletubbies episode.

 

I'm feeling something with Napoleon. Everyone I know over 30 is talking about it and hyped as shit, much more than KOTFM. I don't love the Quorum or BO.com tracking numbers. But my anecdotal evidence and intuition is backed up by the trailer views and social metrics. If the movie hits 70 percent on RT (big if!), I really think it outopens KOTFM. Joaquin playing Napoleon in a movie from the guy who did Gladiator is a very easy pitch to make.

I genuinely think all of these movies (except Wonka) are pretty much perfectly positioned for major epic disaster scenarios if reception ends up mid to poor for any of them. It’s gonna be BLEAK for the four I called out in particular in that case. As for Napoleon, KOTFM pretty much killed any hope I had in that. Can’t see it doing over 80 or so, even if well liked 

[Jonwo]

I sometimes wonder why some followed BO numbers if they are always negative all the time. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Mogration

Isn't that a Sesame Street character?

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Eric Fazbear said:

Isn't that a Sesame Street character?

No, it’s a homosexual immigrant 

[MovieMan89]

But seriously though, when is it ever a good idea to trust a Ridley Scott film to go over and pull box office gangbusters post 2000? 

[Bob Train]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I sometimes wonder why some followed BO numbers if they are always negative all the time. 

If you pretend that the world is about to end, and everything will suck, then you rarely get disappointed. Every year since 2020 has been the year that movie theaters all die out and close doors according to some people.

[MovieMan89]

Hey, I accurately called A2 crazy legs, Mario and Barbie massive breakouts from the past year… me saying this holiday slate has the potential for epic disaster is not me being negative. It really does. Though I will stand by Wonka having 400 DOM potential if well liked. Wish can hit 250+ if soundtrack clicks. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

If you pretend that the world is about to end, and everything will suck, then you rarely get disappointed.

Been a good philosophy to follow by if I'm being honest. Makes me feel better about myself and the sorry situation I'm in.

[M37]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 

My middle school daughter is trying to convince me to be the chaperone for her group of 15 friends going to see FNAF tonight.

 

Ok, crisis adverted 

[Claire of Themyscira]

@Eric Fazbear Did you like the movie, boo?

[Eric Loves Rey]

1 minute ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

@Eric Fazbear Did you like the movie, boo?

I haven’t seen it. I’m actually going to DC this weekend for the Eagles/Commanders game. Have no idea if I’ll even watch Freddy’s because I doubt I’ll get much out of it. Maybe if I’m really, really bored and have nothing to do.

[M37]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Super doom and gloom worst case scenario for the big ones this quarter if nothing is very well liked:

 

The Marvels: 37/80

Hunger Games: 22/55

Wish: 31 (5 day)/80

Napoleon: 15/42

Aquabro 2ude: 50 (5 day)/115

Wonka: 25/95

The Color Purple: 70 (too weird of an opening to predict OW) 

 

Of those scenarios, i honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Marvels, THG, Aqua, and Napoleon pretty much happen 

I'll just say this, or rather let Mr Malcolm say it for me:

 

 

In box office terms, it means that its more likely than not that even when the release slate looks weak, something is likely to catch a wave and breakout. That is not to say that there is some hard floor of demand: if high interest/quality product isn't there, people will stay home. But rather the overall potential movie-going audience is still very large, with many sub-groups often underserved, which means betting that nothing will be able to find an larger audience and exceed expectations - or even just leg out - is often a fool's errand.

Last year was the lowest grossing Nov & Dec since THE NINETIES, though certainly carried by BPWF and Avatar 2, and that was still $1.3 BILLION combined; a decline from that value may in fact happen, but if you think we're going to drop down to like $800M territory (based on these numbers), I will absolutely bet the over

 

The people who predicted at the beginning of the year that Mario, ATSV, Sound of Freedom, Barbie, Oppy, and now FNAF would be able to step up and fill the void left by the wake of under-performances like Flash and Indy 5 (among many) might number ZERO ... but yet here we are. And we'll probably be in the same place in January (just don't ask me how ... yet)

[Eric Loves Rey]

Lol Jason Blum is on tonight’s Shark Tank. Good promo I guess.

[Bob Train]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

The people who predicted at the beginning of the year that Mario, ATSV, Sound of Freedom, Barbie, Oppy, and now FNAF would be able to step up and fill the void left by the wake of under-performances like Flash and Indy 5 (among many) might number ZERO ... but yet here we are. And we'll probably be in the same place in January (just don't ask me how ... yet)

It's because very few people were asking for another DCEU, Transformers, Fast and Furious etc. movie, as those franchises have already run their course and peaked 10 years ago.

 

Mario and FNAF are videogame movies with years of demand from their fanbases. Barbie became a phenomenon among women due to a perfect storm of factors. Oppenheimer was already locked for high $100s DOM by virtue of being a Nolan movie, but Barbenheimer exposure cruised it past $300m. Sound of Freedom served a market Hollywood doesn't tap into, and also became a phenomenon of sorts thanks to the "they don't want you to see this" narrative.

[M37]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

But rather the overall potential movie-going audience is still very large, with many sub-groups often underserved

 

47 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Mario and FNAF are videogame movies with years of demand from their fanbases.

47 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Barbie became a phenomenon among women

47 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Sound of Freedom served a market Hollywood doesn't tap into

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I'll just say this, or rather let Mr Malcolm say it for me:

 

 

In box office terms, it means that its more likely than not that even when the release slate looks weak, something is likely to catch a wave and breakout. That is not to say that there is some hard floor of demand: if high interest/quality product isn't there, people will stay home. But rather the overall potential movie-going audience is still very large, with many sub-groups often underserved, which means betting that nothing will be able to find an larger audience and exceed expectations - or even just leg out - is often a fool's errand.

Last year was the lowest grossing Nov & Dec since THE NINETIES, though certainly carried by BPWF and Avatar 2, and that was still $1.3 BILLION combined; a decline from that value may in fact happen, but if you think we're going to drop down to like $800M territory (based on these numbers), I will absolutely bet the over

 

The people who predicted at the beginning of the year that Mario, ATSV, Sound of Freedom, Barbie, Oppy, and now FNAF would be able to step up and fill the void left by the wake of under-performances like Flash and Indy 5 (among many) might number ZERO ... but yet here we are. And we'll probably be in the same place in January (just don't ask me how ... yet)

I agree worst case would be unlikely for all of them… but then again if they turn out poorly received, I actually don’t think any of them are in any kind of position to get a “default” boost beyond minor ones for Wonka and Aquabro.