FNAF Weekend Thread (10/27-10/29) | $80m Opening Weekend | Blumhouse's Biggest Opener Ever | $14.7m The Eras Tour | $9.3m KOTFM

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Different circumstances, but Sound of Freedom would still be way ahead IMO, given the even more niche nature of the audience and lack of traditional marketing 

I consider that movie's run to be in its own class due to the aforementioned reasons (drawing an audience away from regular demos who wouldn't dare step inside a movie theater otherwise). 

[PlatnumRoyce]

Posttrak scores of horror films receiving an A- cinemascore (Conjuring 1 and [arguably] Goosebumps clearly have posttrak scores but it was before they're regularly published online)

• Get Out - 84 positive/66 recommend
• A Quiet Place 2 - 83 positive 63 recommend
• FNAF - 75% positive / 62% recommend
• The Conjuring 2 (third film in conjuring universe after a mixed reception Annabelle) - 74% positive / 54% recommend 

[TwoMisfits]

Deadline updated to $78M weekend for FNAF...

 

"Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak improved to 77% positive and four stars."

"Hispanic and Latino turnout at 40%, which is more than Caucasian 37%, Black 11% and Asian 7%."

"It’s clear the under 24 set at 80%"

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

Edited October 28, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Shawn Robbins]

$39.46m official FNAF FRIDAY ESTIMATE

($29.16m true Friday + $10.3m Thu previews)

 

Incredible.

 

[M37]

Couple of numbers in, and so far nothing  has held better than -50% vs last Fri. Paw Patrol best at -52%, followed by ERAS at -54%. 
 

KOTFM, Creator, Haunting, Nun II all -60% or worse. Combo of FNAF and pre-Halloween weekend knocked everything down 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$39.46m official FNAF FRIDAY ESTIMATE

($29.16m true Friday + $10.3m Thu previews)

 

Incredible.

 

Didn’t quite get to $30M TFri or $40Mil total, but if it holds, would barely edge out Joker’s $39.35M OD

 

Would probably argue capacity limits - theaters just not quite ready for the onslaught - kept it from reaching those thresholds, which probably spills over into Sat 

Edited October 28, 2023 by M37

[filmlover]

Yikes at Flower Moon dropping nearly 75% Friday-to-Friday. Guessing it'll tap out around $60-65M total at this point.

[Killimano3]

Knew this would be decently big. Went yesterday with my girlfriend and her younger siblings/cousins and by the end I had no idea what was happening but they seemed to understand lol

[John Marston]

Killers of the Flower Moon dropping like a superhero movie 

[John Marston]

Count me as someone who never even heard of Five Nights at Freddy’s until this trailer dropped. I’m 32 and and thought I was fairly well versed in pop culture 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Killers of the Flower Moon dropping like a superhero movie 

A frontloaded weekend / lower IM usually means a bigger 2nd weekend drop. With that said, the pre-Halloween weekend is bad for movies, too much spooky activities going on, and with nothing really opening next weekend it should have a strong hold. Black Adam last year was -59% followed by -33.5% with same set-up

[PlatnumRoyce]

3 hours ago, Kon said:

 

It's interesting. This movie apparently attracts ethnically diverse teens and young adults, but the only non-white character seems to be a ghost kid. [FNAF's 38% Caucasian on OD]

I don't think this observation is particularly strongly proven. To my eyes it's not so much attracting a noticeably diverse audience as this is reflecting changing trends in moviegoing overall. Posttrak demos constantly showing under-indexing among white audiences with  hispanic audiences overindexing but especially overindexing among young audiences. 
Minions 2/"Gentleminions" was 35% Caucasian and no one can credible argue this is a franchise that's has a strong demographic bias relative to a baseline of all moviegoers. A movie about the "The Big Bad Wolf" doing crimes hit 40% Caucasian. 

Looking at 53 films I have demo data for in 2021-2023 (but Mostly mid 2022 to early 2023 - I admit it's not a perfect dataset but it's something I've been slowly throwing together), it would place 33rd out of 53 in Caucasian %. If we throw in a 3 percentage point quasi margin of error, (35% to 41%), that would cover films ranking 27th to 43rd out of 53. 

But what happens when we pair it down? Let's first throw out the weird anime title (Jujutsu Kaisen 0), but let's also throw out "old person comedy/dramas" (Downton Abbey/Otto/About My Father/Father Stu/Death of the Nile/Till). 

The median Caucasian percentage was 42% and and mean 44.4%

However if we take a pass to remove obviously old skewing dramas/comedies you kill 5 films with a Caucasian percentage of 74-57% (plus Till at 36%) (could easily remove Marry Me but I erred on side of caution). That drops it to 42.7% mean/41% median. 

and +/- 3 points goes from 22/46 to 37/46.  This film is just in a relatively normal part of bell curve in % white versus % minority split even if it's a nudge on the minority heavy side. 

[emoviefan]

Gonna resist my urge to let out my inner Scorcese when it comes to FNAF. If that and ERA"'s is what keeps the lights on so I can see stuff like KOTFM, Napoleon and a lot of the normal mainstream stuff I am still interested in. God knows the theaters are going to have a rough go of it next year even assuming the strike ends in the next few days. 

[Arlborn]

17 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Count me as someone who never even heard of Five Nights at Freddy’s until this trailer dropped. I’m 32 and and thought I was fairly well versed in pop culture 

Ya'all need kids if you truly wanna be kept up to date on stuff like this after your 30's, just saying

[M37]

1 minute ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Minions 2/"Gentleminions" was 35% Caucasian and no one can credible argue this is a franchise that's has a strong demographic bias relative to a baseline of all moviegoers. A movie about the "The Big Bad Wolf" doing crimes hit 40% Caucasian. 

Looking at how well Minions did in Mexico (relative to say MCU), I would make that argument. Its not a major skew, but its definitely there

But probably the simpler answer is that FNAF skewed very young, and demographics shift as you move up and down the age chart. The primary draw here was generational, and the breakdown reflects that audience base

[jeffthehat]

39 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Deadline updated to $78M weekend for FNAF...

 

"Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak improved to 77% positive and four stars."

"Hispanic and Latino turnout at 40%, which is more than Caucasian 37%, Black 11% and Asian 7%."

"It’s clear the under 24 set at 80%"

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

 

They shoulda just checked @Shawn's numbers on Wednesday 😂

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[titanic2187]

Utterly ugly hold across the board, don't understand how market works nowadays. The hold shouldn't be this bad since FNAF isn't some 100m+ opener, and it is only a 1 hour 50 min long movie which shouldn't squeeze the room for holdovers this much. Sadly the strike is impacting the casual moviegoers outreach, that is why the second weekend drop in the past few months have been meh-bad no matter how good the WOM is. 

 

Speaking of holdovers, Focus feature's Holdovers is looking to have similar PTA like Tar last year in the limited OW. 

 

 

[Felandria]

41 minutes ago, M37 said:

Couple of numbers in, and so far nothing  has held better than -50% vs last Fri. Paw Patrol best at -52%, followed by ERAS at -54%. 
 

KOTFM, Creator, Haunting, Nun II all -60% or worse. Combo of FNAF and pre-Halloween weekend knocked everything down 

Exorcist -41%

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Looking at how well Minions did in Mexico (relative to say MCU), I would make that argument. Its not a major skew, but its definitely there

But probably the simpler answer is that FNAF skewed very young, and demographics shift as you move up and down the age chart. The primary draw here was generational, and the breakdown reflects that audience base

Mexico point is fair but other family films aren't that different. If it wasn't clear I agree that it's likely just demo data. 

I wish someone just had a quick way to convert topline demos against age (I guess I might do it whenever I find time to get a more complete version of published film demo data aggregated). It just seems clear people are routinely making film specific arguments that only exist because of inferences drawn from the superficial data that's presented in trades.