Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[Torontofan]

Mission impossible should have released right now.

 

Easy 220 plus total and 700 million ww.

 

Huge miss

Edited December 23, 2023 by Torontofan

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Mission impossible should have released right now.

 

Easy 220 plus total and 700 million ww.

 

Huge miss

I wonder if it would've gotten PLF's (because of Aquaman 2)

[titanic2187]

 

Quote

Migration continues to be on track to do better than expected. The families who bought tickets gave it an A CinemaScore, while PostTrak, which is always more cynical, has it at 79% positive and 52% definite recommend, though kids under 12 are giving it 88% positive in the top two boxes. 50/50 split male and females, with a little over half the audience between 18-34. More than a third of the audience is between 7-17 years old. Diversity demos are 39% Caucasian, 33% Latino and Hispanic (always a big draw on family movies), 11% Black, and 17% Asian/other. 

 

79% positive vs Trolls 3 (85%) vs Paw (83%)

A cinemascore vs Trolls 3 (A) vs Paw (A)

86% RT VA vs Trolls 3 (92%) vs Paw (94%)

 

100m is definitely within reach as long as the movie can hit 60m-65m by Jan 1. 

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

18 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

PostTrak 69% (3 stars), RT VA 77% and Cinemascore B. This is step down from The Flash which scored better at Posttrak at 4 stars, and RT was also higher at 83%. Suffice to say Aquaman is having worse WOM here at State. 

This is gonna be an epic showdown

 

Most over-powered weekend possible for legs, literally every day from Christmas to New Years is a Saturday

 

vs

 

super toxic word of mouth,

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[titanic2187]

6 hours ago, Borobudur said:

These numbers are better than expected but this season is still lacking a clear WOM sensation. This year the WOM across the board is a lot more shaky unless TCP surprises. Last year both Avatar sequel and PIB2 got A cinemascore and RT audience was comfortably above 90% with Posttrak 5 Stars. And 2021 famously feature 3 A+ cinemascore like NWH, Sing 2 and American Underdog.  

 

 

 

The only major release this year I believe that is matching WOM level of last year's offering. Not only that A- is a best ever for a A24 movie, 96% on RT audience score is also the best ever I believe. Not even EEAAO was this positive. 

Quote

A24’s The Iron Claw is the studio’s top CinemaScore ever with an A-. Prior to that, Talk to Me nabbed a B+. PostTrak audiences love it at as well at 91%, and a 72% definite recommend. 

 

Quote

Guys mostly here at 66%, with 60% of the audience between 18-34 years old, with the largest quad being 25-34 years old at 36%. The mix was 53% Caucasian, 31% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, & 10% Asian/other. 

 

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Anyone But You is actually the surprise among openers considering how little it seemed to have going for it pre-release? The marketing struggled to find the right tone to sell it, comedies (especially R-rated ones) have been doing peanuts for the most part in theaters for a while, both stars were untested/unproven, and the reviews weren't very good either (though 49% RT score isn't awful for a romcom). Between this and both Priscilla and even Saltburn doing better than expected for movies of these sorts circa 2023, is it reasonable to speculate the stars of Euphoria have some pull after all?  Zendaya is probably going to power Challengers past CMBYN to become the biggest movie of Luca's career all by herself.

 

 

ABY is pulling away female audience from Aquaman apparently. The WOM level is similar to NHF. Hope ABY can at least have come close to NHF's 50m.  

 

Quote

CinemaScore audiences liked it better than Aquaman 2 with a B+. The pic also has 4 stars on PostTrak. Female heavy, as expected, at 67%, with 69% of the audience between 18-34 years old, with the largest quad being Sweeney’s Euphoria crowd, 18-24 years old at 40%. 

Diversity demos are 57% Caucasian, 18% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black, & 17% Asian/Other.

 

Clearly this season is a demonstration of big scale counterprogramming. Every movie is a counter-program of each other. 

[HummingLemon496]

Damn, audiences are really getting stricter on comic book movies. This movie was actually pretty good, like 7/10 

Edited December 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Joyous Legion]

52 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Every movie is a counter-program of each other. 

And when everything’s a counter-program…

nothing will be

[M37]

3 hours ago, Legion Again said:

I said 3-4.5*5-6*4-5, jury is still out  

 

Those geomean to 90 which I still think may be within 15% or so which would be pretty good for a day 1 forecast 😛 

Day 1 forecast you say? Hmmm

 

On 11/20/2023 at 3:59 PM, M37 said:

So set the starting value at ~$4-$5M Preview, ~$25-$30M OW, ~$120-$170M finish

[Adjusting both the OD sales and IM/legs for holiday impacts]

 

\

 

Hit the snooze button until around T-14 and see if numbers are trending higher or lower.

 

I'll let you figure out the geomean of those ranges

[Cmasterclay]

It's only one day so I don't want to extrapolate too far, but can't Iron Claw flirt with 35m? That's insane for a mega depressing A24 movie about the Von Erichs.

[Joyous Legion]

54 minutes ago, M37 said:

Day 1 forecast you say? Hmmm

 

 

I'll let you figure out the geomean of those ranges

	Legion Day 1	M37 Day 1	Halfway
Th	3.674234614	4.472135955	4.053600464
IM	5.477225575	6.123724357	5.791460926
OW	20.1246118	27.38612788	23.4762687
Legs	4.472135955	5.215361924	4.829472806
DOM	90	142.8285686	113.3780013

 

👍

Edited December 23, 2023 by Legion Again

[MovieMan89]

Literally the dullest Fri numbers all around imaginable. Even Wonka is kinda meh. Hope Xmas Day does something to really jolt the BO 

[HummingLemon496]

Thursday previews and opening weekend M37 easily won. However the domestic total probably finishes closer to Legion geomean ($90M) than M37 geomean ($142.8M). . .but it'll be close 

 

I wonder if 4x is literally the floor or it can get broken somehow 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Domestic total probably finishes closer to Legion geomean ($90M) than M37 geomean ($142.8M)

I’m inclined to agree for now but I did put the dividing value right there for reference 😛
 

I def was worse on prev and OW so if dom does work out it’ll be thanks to IM and legs

Edited December 23, 2023 by Legion Again

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Damn, audiences are really getting stricter on comic book movies. This movie was actually pretty good, like 7/10 

That has been pretty apparent for quite some time, now.

You will still have th occasionial hit like Spidey NWH and GOTG 3 and The Batman, but the days when  almost every CBM could get enough of audience to at least break even are over.

And  the genre has a problem in that CBM are expensive to make. Thye are not like horror, where you can keep the budget really low and at least break even just from the core audience. You need more then the core fan audience to make money with a CBM.

[HummingLemon496]

7 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

I’m inclined to agree for now but I did put the diving value right there for reference 😛

Yeah as someone who thought The Marvels was at least gonna clear 2x even after that CinemaScore, I would also probably go under on the midpoint ($116.4M) and the geomean ($113.4M).

 

But now I'm wondering if it can hit bang on your $90M prediction. 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[M37]

17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's only one day so I don't want to extrapolate too far, but can't Iron Claw flirt with 35m? That's insane for a mega depressing A24 movie about the Von Erichs.

The baseline multiplier from 3-day OW, based on 2017, for any Fri 12/22 wide openers is around 5x.  Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing and Father Figures all landed in that same range (+/- 0.5), so that should be the expectation ... for now.

 

With that said, a smaller film like this is more likely to find a WOM bump and be a multiplier outlier than a major release like say Aquaman, and the market is lacking for male-skewing films overall, so its a candidate to help fill that void over time (see previously Godzilla-1). All the way back in 2006 (the previous time with this calendar configuration) a sports themed somewhat downer of a film, We Are Marshall turned a $6.1M OW into a $43.5M total

[M37]

13 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

I’m inclined to agree for now but I did put the dividing value right there for reference 😛
 

I def was worse on prev and OW so if dom does work out it’ll be thanks to IM and legs

I actually think you’ll come out ahead on the legs value (I was ballparking before having delved into data), but will still take the over on the $113M total

 

Will know better by end of the first week 

[Jiffy]

Is the Wonka drop worse than expected? Haven't followed but thought the weekdays were pretty strong.

[Joyous Legion]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

I actually think you’ll come out ahead on the legs value (I was ballparking before having delved into data), but will still take the over on the $113M total

 

Will know better by end of the first week 

One claim I’m relatively confident making already is that the midpoint will be closer than either of our doms. Another W for wisdom of the crowd aggregation 😛

Edited December 23, 2023 by Legion Again