Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[JonathanMB]

I remember being adamant when The Last Jedi was released that it would easily get a 3+ multiplier even with the "bad" word-of-mouth due to the holidays, and being very annoyingly proven wrong by the movie. Even with Lost Kingdom releasing even closer to Christmas, I feel like it's really gonna push the limit of how much the holidays can save a movie's legs, between fanboy rush and poor word-of-mouth. Can a movie with Christmas Eve in its weekend fail to reach a 4+ multiplier? We're about to find out...

[dallas]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

This is different. Mortal Engines released on the pre-pre-Christmas weekend (Dec 14). Aquaman is releasing on the pre-Christmas weekend (Dec 22) so basically every day from Christmas to New Years is a Saturday. This should basically make it impossible for Aquaman to collapse like Mortal Engines did (2.11x).

Plus Mortal Engines is a movie most people have never heard of vs Aquaman who is one of the primary tentpoles in December (and probably most of January too)

[dallas]

2 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

I remember being adamant when The Last Jedi was released that it would easily get a 3+ multiplier even with the "bad" word-of-mouth due to the holidays, and being very annoyingly proven wrong by the movie. Even with Lost Kingdom releasing even closer to Christmas, I feel like it's really gonna push the limit of how much the holidays can save a movie's legs, between fanboy rush and poor word-of-mouth. Can a movie with Christmas Eve in its weekend fail to reach a 4+ multiplier? We're about to find out...

Bro you're comparing a movie that opened to $220M to a movie that will open with $30M 😭

 

Aquaman will definitely get the 4x, and if not it will be very, very close

[ThomasNicole]

Not even the CS being boring lol 

 

Everything around this movie happened exactly like expected 

 

At least the box office itself is a bit better than it was looking so that’s something, but not really exciting 

[dallas]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Not even the CS being boring lol 

 

Everything around this movie happened exactly like expected 

 

At least the box office itself is a bit better than it was looking so that’s something, but not really exciting 

WB was smart to release this during the holidays. If it came out any other time, it probably wouldn't pass $200M WW

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, MovieMagic said:

Anyone But You gets a B+ on Cinema Score.

84% VA score. 

[MovieMan89]

Yeah the CS is woefully dull. Needed something interesting. This is just gonna be the 100/300 thanks Xmas legs box office run it seemed like it would be. Yawn 

Edited December 23, 2023 by MovieMan89

[KP1025]

2 hours ago, dallas said:

Puss in Boots nearly got there off a $12M opening, and Migration doesn't face any competition until Kung Fu Panda 4 in March. 

 

I doubt Migration will get the same kind of multiplier as Puss. That had much better reception (to the point of being considered a possible Oscars winner) and basically zero family competition its whole run (only the tail end of Strange World, which was done by that point). Migration will have to deal with the staying power of Wonka and several other animated films still in release. Films like Trolls 3 and Wish don't have too much left in the tank but they'll still siphon millions of dollars that would otherwise have gone to Migration.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

 

when posttrak and cinemascore say different things who should we trust? which one interviews the most people?

 

I feel like people are getting too into the weeds w Postrak. It's a dumb kids movie that keeps them occupied for 90 minutes, not something that aims higher and misfires. It's attracting exactly the audience it's aimed at.

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

I know it was a few pages back with @MovieMan89 leading the way (tagging him even though I'm not quoting any specific post so he knows about the convo here), but...

 

What even *IS* "heavy marketing" in this day and age of declining linear programming and scattered to the four winds internet media viewing?

 

I can't tell you how many times I've heard "Well, [INSERT COMPANY HERE] didn't bother to market [FILM OF CHOICE] much" and I think about all of the ads I did see for it.  And I don't even watch that much TV! Certainly not much non-sports TV at any rate.

 

But, like, if someone (and here I'm talking about a Hypothetical Someone and not anyone on this board) isn't watching broadcast/cable TV and has ad blockers installed while they surf the net and skips ahead of promos on places like YT or Twitch or wherever then how can one even know if something is being marketed to them or not?  How viral it is?  If it gets something on Fortnite?  If it somehow breaks through their bubble?

 

The above might sound sarcastic, but I truly don't mean it that way.  What I am saying is that the overall marketing landscape is even more fractured than it was 10 years ago, and it was pretty damn fractured then. It is getting easier and easier and easier with every single year that passes to just miss out on an advertising campaign that one might have been aware of even a few years prior.

 

I might be somewhat sympathetic to the virality argument, except getting viral on places like Twitter and TikTok is a very inexact science that I don't think Madison Avenue has cracked yet, esp for TikTok.  Sure once something has established itself as having viral juice behind it, marketing knows how to amplify it (see Barbenheimer).  But actually getting something virally launched in the first place? Don't think that nut has been reliably cracked yet. M3GAN and Smile might be success stories in that department (more the former than the later) but I think it's still in its infancy.  Especially on non-Twitter hangouts.

 

So then are we just judging by a Success Based Metric?  I.e. "Well, none of the kids/women/gamers/DEMO-OF-CHOICE I spoke to knew about it"?  I mean, fair enough if so.  But, like, then we get back to the original question?  Just what is marketing in an age when so many people are going out of their way not to see advertisements?  How does Hollywood target folks who don't want to be targeted?  Try to get some viral juice?  Hope The Almighty Algorithm that dishes ads on any given platform smiles upon them?  I really don't know.

 

Not that I have any answers here.  Just more examining the central question of "what even is marketing in anti-marketing age?"

 

It’s more complex in the modern day, but I still manage to see full blown saturation VERY easily when the studios roll out huge campaigns. Mario, Barbie and Wish all come to mind this year. 
 

Also, there’s evidence Illumination’s marketing team engineered the TikTok virility of the whole Gentleminion’s trend. What I mean about their marketing team being relentless typically. I don’t have energy to get into it, but you can do some digging if you want. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by MovieMan89

[AniNate]

18 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

I doubt Migration will get the same kind of multiplier as Puss. That had much better reception (to the point of being considered a possible Oscars winner) and basically zero family competition its whole run (only the tail end of Strange World, which was done by that point). Migration will have to deal with the staying power of Wonka and several other animated films still in release. Films like Trolls 3 and Wish don't have too much left in the tank but they'll still siphon millions of dollars that would otherwise have gone to Migration.

 

The affects of the holdovers are likely manifesting most in this comparatively modest opening weekend. They are all probably siphoning off some demand, yes, but Trolls and Wish are also losing a significant portion of their theaters this weekend, much like Strange World did when Puss came out. Migration also has pretty much zero competition after this opening except for the Pixar rereleases, but even those will still be on D+ and I wouldn't say Soul really targets the same audience as Migration.

 

That being said, I agree that given its critical reception it's probably not gonna have Puss staying power, but I don't think low $100s are too much of a stretch.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by AniNate

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[dallas]

Just now, Issac Newton said:

 

 

This isn't "shifting tides" lol. This is anecdotal evidence from a single screening of a movie. These Twitter takes are getting more ridiculous by the day. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

50m+, 50m+, 50m+, repeat until it happens…

 

Really need this movie to take down Demon Slayer DOM, it would be some major poetic justice for how Miyazaki lost his crown in Japan to those shonen 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, dallas said:

This isn't "shifting tides" lol. This is anecdotal evidence from a single screening of a movie. These Twitter takes are getting more ridiculous by the day. 

Maybe so but it DID stay nearly flat in gross Thursday to Thursday despite the screen loss and isn’t even bleeding screens on Xmas Day it would seem. 

[titanic2187]

15 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I feel like people are getting too into the weeds w Postrak. It's a dumb kids movie that keeps them occupied for 90 minutes, not something that aims higher and misfires. It's attracting exactly the audience it's aimed at.

But PostTrak, RT verified audience score and cinemascore are highly correlated. In this case, RT VA score seem more in sync with Posttrak and that A cinemascore really come as an surprise. If we talk about dumb kids movie, Paw Patrols is aiming even more to toddlers but still get 94% on RT.  

 

 

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

But PostTrak, RT verified audience score and cinemascore are highly correlated. In this case, RT VA score seem more in sync with Posttrak and that A cinemascore really come as an surprise. If we talk about dumb kids movie, Paw Patrols is aiming even more to toddlers but still get 94% on RT.  

 

 

 

Well, you pretty much know what you're in for if you buy a ticket to Paw Patrol at this point. Being an original IP with a name with some street cred directing, I think Migration had a few more single adults going in blind.

 

Point I'm trying to make here is there's a middle ground between Wish's complete rejection and Puss 2 and Elemental's ridiculous runs, and it does seem like that's more or less what Migration's fate will be. No real point in trying to dramatize it right now.

[Speedorito]

Aquaman to the holiday legs effect:

 

[Nanatri]

https://twitter.com/TaquiBox/status/1738471907521945864?t=AFz3V-dpZiTNXKbJVjt_Zw&s=19

1⃣ #Wonka    $4,20M (57,5M)
2⃣ #TheHungerGames $944,0K (149,3M)
3⃣ #TheBoyAndTheHeron $896,1K (27,4M)
4⃣ #GodzillaMinusOne    $711,0K (37,6M)
5⃣ #TrollsBandTogether $586,3K (91,1M)
6⃣ #Wish    $498,6K (56,3M)
7⃣ #Napoleon $245,2K (58,4M

Edited December 23, 2023 by Nanatri

[M37]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

This comparison is misunderstanding the data.  A film like Heron is going to play well in big cities, but not have much depth in middle and especially lower tier markets. That Aquaman 2 isn’t relying as heavily on the big markets, but filling seats more or less everywhere, is better for the industry

 

Unless ones goal is to reduce movie-going to a cinephile, niche audience and kill a lot of those mid and lower theaters