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Issac Newton

Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

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6 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Its PTA is basically flat with last Friday ($623), so hopefully that means it's doing well enough at the remaining theaters to hold onto most of them on Monday, and enjoy the holiday corridor bump. Feeling better and better about $40M+ total...


PTA staying flat is a very good sign of passionate interest, I believe heron is the first anime that got to enjoy holiday season bump. Yeah, now I think 3x legs is very probable.

35 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

A24 seems to have found A Thing with "emotionally exhausting Christmastime releases," between this, The Whale becoming the 6th biggest December release last year, and Uncut Gems becoming their first $50M+ grosser. Wonder what they have planned for next Christmas...

The WOM for iron claw is very very strong on social media for its tear jerker but many complained the movie isn’t fitting for holiday mood. 

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16 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Its PTA is basically flat with last Friday ($623), so hopefully that means it's doing well enough at the remaining theaters to hold onto most of them on Monday, and enjoy the holiday corridor bump. Feeling better and better about $40M+ total...

I'm skeptical that it'll hold onto most of its theaters into the week, only because anecdotally most of the theaters near me are getting rid of it on Monday. Of the 15 closest theaters that are still showing it today, only 6 of them are still showing it on Christmas (and even those are dropping from 5 showings a day to 1 showing a day).

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5 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

This is in 500 more theaters than Wish and yet its PTA ($328) is 35% higher than that film ($243). If it holds onto enough screens on Monday, I guess $100M+ is back in play?

Problem is, Xmas day schedules are already set, not a lot of wiggle room. It may lose a fair number of locations (and shows) for Mon-Thur, but get some back for Friday when there is more data available 

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4 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

I'm skeptical that it'll hold onto most of its theaters into the week, only because anecdotally most of the theaters near me are getting rid of it on Monday. Of the 15 closest theaters that are still showing it today, only 6 of them are still showing it on Christmas (and even those are dropping from 5 showings a day to 1 showing a day).

 

Hmm, in my area it looks like 10 of the 20 theaters that currently have it will be dropping it Monday, and most of the ones keeping it have it on only half a screen. That said, most of those theaters keeping do have at least one showtime that's already sold 10-20 tickets for Christmas, so hopefully those theaters will be able to compensate for those losses?

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Warner’s Wonka is also looking strong with a $6.5M Friday, a 20% expected boost in family business today to $7.8M, and a 3-day of $18.8M, 4-day of $27.8M. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if this hits $30M by the end of Christmas, which would be an amazing hold against the pic’s first four days of $43M.

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Last couple months I was predicting a 25m breakout for Iron Claw due to unholy combination of A24 stans, wrestling people like me, and Efron girlies. Dropped it to 10m because of the shitty presales and tracking. Should have trusted my initial instinct!!

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Amazon MGM and MRC’s TIFF winner American Fiction jumped 33 theaters in 11 markets with a $212K gross on Friday, +75% from a week ago. 3-day is looking like $448K and 4-day $606K. Theater average on the 4-day will be $15K. The Cord Jefferson directed movie will continue to expand into January.

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