Weekend Thread (5/17-19/2024) | WEEKEND ESTIMATES: $35M for IF, $12M for Strangers, $2.85M for Back to Black, $26M for Apes

[AniNate]

Currently still maintaining a $200 mil rolling year comp advantage, I'm guessing that will probably end in early June. We have a dead weekend this year where Spiderverse opened last year

 

 

Edited May 19 by AniNate

[kayumanggi]

12 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Creed 3?

 

I missed it because it's not on BOM's weekend list this time last year since it had ended its run on the weekend before. Will edit. Let me add SCREAM VI as well. Also, FAST X crossed 100M on May's 4th weekend. Then THE LITTLE MERMAID crossed the mark on Memorial Day weekend while SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE did it on June's first weekend. So 9 in total. 2024 is so far behind.

Edited May 19 by kayumanggi

[CJohn]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

I missed it because it's not on BOM's weekend list this time last year since it had ended its run on the weekend before. Will edit. Also, FAST X crossed 100M on May's 4th weekend. Then THE LITTLE MERMAID crossed the mark on Memorial Day weekend while SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE did it on June's first weekend. So 8 in total. 2024 is so far behind.

Like Coolio said, Scream 6 also crossed the 100M in 2023 by this time.

[filmnerdjamie]

 

[filmnerdjamie]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited May 19 by kayumanggi

[Speedorito]

12 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Yay for Apes. Looks like the B Cinemascore isn’t manifesting.

[kayumanggi]

7 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Yay for Apes. Looks like the B Cinemascore isn’t manifesting.

 

Hoping for 160M+. There is no other wide PG-13 release until A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE. I believe BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE will be rated R?

[MightyDargon]

I don't think the B for Apes was a "real" B. At least in the sense of "fanboy driven movie where anything less than an A- equals doom". In fact I think the only thing where "B- automatically means doom" is basically kids movies.

[AniNate]

It's the realest B there is, in the sense of actually meaning B instead of the D or F everyone thinks

[The Wild Eric]

11 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Yay for Apes. Looks like the B Cinemascore isn’t manifesting.

It's following a similar run so far as Dial of Destiny where it has okay legs despite tepid WOM and a bad Cinemascore, in large part thanks to being part of an older-skewing legacy franchise. At the very least, we should get another sequel, which I'm happy for.

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, Eric the IF said:

It's following a similar run so far as Dial of Destiny where it has okay legs despite tepid WOM and a bad Cinemascore, in large part thanks to being part of an older-skewing legacy franchise. At the very least, we should get another sequel, which I'm happy for.

I don't think that's an accurate comparison. Most audiences seem to at least feel okay about Apes but hated Dial of Destiny, at least as far as comparing it to other Indy movies. Yeah a B could be accurate in the sense that nobody is saying this is Fury Road level good but it seems closer to the reception of Civil War where it has actual defenders instead of people just poo poohing it.

[ringedmortality]

alright put your bets in Alien Romulus above or below IF OW

[MightyDargon]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

alright put your bets in Alien Romulus above or below IF OW

Why? Very different genre...

[AniNate]

Speaking of Civil War, annoying that it looks like it's gonna be yet another movie this year that falls just short of a nice clean milestone. Is pulling in a pretty solid global haul though. It's getting a China release so might be able to pull ahead of EEAAO on the strength of that.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 19 by AniNate

[The Wild Eric]

9 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

alright put your bets in Alien Romulus above or below IF OW

Lower, but ~32M still ain't bad

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Tbh I’m still not sure about $30M for Alien. Love the series and looking forward to it but the series hasn’t had the best rep with audiences in recent years and Covenant had A really bad response. I think there will be some hesitation from audiences at first.

[The Wild Eric]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Oh, and this is actually legit solid stuff disregarding tracking. Like this is what I expected and something Paramount should be happy with. It's also now the second-biggest opening for a totally original movie, only behind Nope.

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, Speedorito said:

Yay for Apes. Looks like the B Cinemascore isn’t manifesting.

Previous installments were A- was peak.

B was never a deathnail for this franchise . Adult skewing. Just see dial of destiny and that had solid legs.

 

It's really bad for fanheavy franchises and animation.

[excel1]

Had a VERY rare non-forum discussion on box office tonight with a quant friend, explaining the challenges of evaluating performance within a historical context in 2024 - inflation, ups and downs of theaters, streaming impact, etc.

 

Friend made a suggestion that blew my mind. He suggested that, rather than only using inflation, which we know is complex, we include a "% of current record" or "% of recent success" type of metric. For example,  We started talking about Twisters, which lead to the impact of Twister back in 1996. It was a massive success, but the opening weekend only inflates to $90m, only 25% of the current record. I noted that it was 82% of the record at the time. ENDGAME is such an extreme uglier than I removed it from the convo. 82% of INFITY WAR would be $212m which is about what Twisters opening felt like back in 1996. This method is largely what the trackers already use for comp predicting in the other thread. It could be a useful bit of context for post opening too.

 

IF's $34m opening weekend* seems/is pretty low, but it isn't that far behind FREE GUY or The Adam Project if one comps Netflix viewed too ticket sales.

Edited May 19 by excel1