Weekend Numbers [05.24 - 05.27, 2024] | 4-day actuals | 32.3M FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA | 31.3M THE GARFIELD MOVIE | 22.3M IF | 17.6M KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

Wrong lesson taken. Aquaman 2 number is exactly why Mufasa could also go wrong like how Aquaman 2 collapse 60% from its 1bn+ predecessor, and it is not like the first Aquaman isn't a Christmas release. It avoid the worst case scenario doesn't make it good finish. 

that’s not my point. I never said it’d be a good finish. My point was that if a clearly terrible Aquaman 2 can leg it out to 100m domestic, a Lion King movie that is well received or at the very least okay, should make more than 100m. And even if it’s terrible it should make more than Aquaman 2. My actual prediction would be more than 200m domestic, like about 360m domestic. More than Wonka. Still a hefty drop but it’d be one of the biggest films of 2024 easily. 

6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I agree. Disney is smart for putting it there. It will drop from the original of course, but it would make enough to be out of flop territory. It's probably the same reason why Sony put KRAVEN THE HUNTER inn December. 

I don’t expect anything from Kraven the Hunter. That has bomb written all over it. But hey, Madame Web made 100m WW. Clearly Kraven will make 1b domestic and 5 billion world wide 🤣

[emoviefan]

27 minutes ago, AJG said:

One must also remember:

 

Yes like I said if Twisters is good if it's terrible like this  is then yeah it will bomb. The buzz is that test screenings have been good though. Yes the missing lead actor   thing but Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton were/are  no Will Smith in BO pull.

[kayumanggi]

9 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Wrong lesson taken. Aquaman 2 number is exactly why Mufasa could also go wrong like how Aquaman 2 collapse 60% from its 1bn+ predecessor, and it is not like the first Aquaman isn't a Christmas release. It avoid the worst case scenario doesn't make it good finish. 

 

We know it's bound to drop whenever Disney decided to release it. It's just that releasing it in December can serve as cushion for what could be a harder fall if they released it in a different month. AQUAMAN II still made 434.4M. Though this doesn't say much, that's the biggest for a DC film in years, thanks to that Holidays help. Had it stayed put in March 2023, it wouldn't have made as much, which means bigger losses for WB. Perhaps 100M more. It's more like salvaging for MUFASA now and not really expecting big numbers like the first movie.

[Speedorito]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yes like I said if Twisters is good if it's terrible like this  is then yeah it will bomb. The buzz is that test screenings have been good though. Yes the missing lead actor   thing but Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton were/are  no Will Smith in BO pull.

We need to stop putting stock in test screenings and “early buzz in the industry.”

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Twister was the number 2 movie in North America in 96. It made 241.  Only behind Independence Day. Will Twisters make anywhere near that amount adjusted for inflation. Not a chance.  But I think if it is good it will do really well. Heck it has strong chance to be the number 2 live action movie of the summer Bad Boys Ride Or Die and Quiet Place Day One being the other contenders.

I think it could do that. I’ve been flying the Twisters flag for months, so I’m not about to give up now. I think it will surprise everybody. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, Speedorito said:

We need to stop putting stock in test screenings and “early buzz in the industry.”

Okay yes I should have put the take a with a grain of salt thing.  

[kayumanggi]

19 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

that’s not my point. I never said it’d be a good finish. My point was that if a clearly terrible Aquaman 2 can leg it out to 100m domestic, a Lion King movie that is well received or at the very least okay, should make more than 100m. And even if it’s terrible it should make more than Aquaman 2. My actual prediction would be more than 200m domestic, like about 360m domestic. More than Wonka. Still a hefty drop but it’d be one of the biggest films of 2024 easily. 

I don’t expect anything from Kraven the Hunter. That has bomb written all over it. But hey, Madame Web made 100m WW. Clearly Kraven will make 1b domestic and 5 billion world wide 🤣

 

Sony said they had moved KRAVEN THE HUNTER to stay away from other R-rated movies, then I checked the release calendar, and I couldn't find any movie that they should be worried about. It's clear they are worried about the movie itself. 🤣

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I think it could do that. I’ve been flying the Twisters flag for months, so I’m not about to give up now. I think it will surprise everybody. 

This movie will play huge in the middle of America. If the quality is there.  This will be the movie that some people still think Horizons is going to be for that audience. 

[Speedorito]

8 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Sony said they had moved KRAVEN THE HUNTER to stay away from other R-rated movies, then I checked the release calendar, and I couldn't find any movie that they should be worried about. It's clear they are worried about the movie itself. 🤣

They also said they put it there because it’s a movie the audience will absolutely want to see again and again

Edited May 26 by Speedorito

[John Marston]

Twisters regardless of how it opens will drop hard due to Deadpool opening the next week. Universal should have swapped the release dates of DM4 and Twisters 

[Blaze Heatnix]

This year has been so crazy. Maybe Kraven might surprise and perform good! XD

[Marathon]

Really bad numbers for Furiosa both domestically and internationally. There was just no interest in this movie. I guess people got their Mad Max fill already with Fury Road.

[WittyUsername]

I think Aquaman 2 benefitted from more or less being the only action tentpole of last December. 

[Eric is Quiet]

I will say that Twisters obviously won't gross as much as Top Gun Maverick, but it has a lot of the same vibes as that movie, so long as the film's got a banger RT score. And honestly, Lee Isaac Chung makes me feel pretty confident in that regard. Like it has some heartland/Americana stuff that can appeal to flyover states and rural/conservative areas, fun action and spectacle that you don't really see in movies anymore for PLF junkies, while potentially being a legit crowdpleasing and exciting movies for coastal elites like me. Plus, it's the only big PG-13 movie in town. So Deadpool will for sure hurt it on its second weekend, but it arguably stands out from all the R-rated mayhem coming afterwards. Weird to say PG-13 feels like counterprogramming, but this has been a weird summer.

 

Again, it all depends on reviews, but I feel, at the very least, it will play well to underserved audiences.

[Speedorito]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Twisters regardless of how it opens will drop hard due to Deadpool opening the next week. Universal should have swapped the release dates of DM4 and Twisters 

I don’t think they want to mess with Despicable Me in any way. That franchise is their golden goose. Better to have Twisters potentially flop (which was a possibility regardless of D&W) than let Despicable Me “only” make 800M and lose its billion-ish streak.

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Even Luiz. It's like they expect each month should produce a 200M film. They should know better. Big movies have been delayed because of the strike. The number of releases still has not reached pre-pandemic levels.

In a healthy market every month should be able to produce some solid grossers because people want to go to the movies and will see something. The problem is that moviegoing is not really a popular activity anymore, so people will not go out to see something.

 

Plenty of good films have released in the past few months, the marketplace should not be in this dire a place.

[filmnerdjamie]

3 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

We need to stop putting stock in test screenings and “early buzz in the industry.”

 

I don't disagree. Even acknowledging my own first-hand account of a positive test screening months back and liking the script just fine myself.

 

But Uni/WBD are projecting that "We KNOW we have a winner here" confidence. Not to mention the latter's often-reliable mid/late July slot - which they locked in ages ago - long before Deadpool & Wolverine took the following week out of necessity.

 

To your point, we all know about how well The Flash tested (and how often we were reminded about it) and while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice did test well too... I'm not confident there after seeing that last trailer.

[WittyUsername]

Out of curiosity, when exactly did Internet circles begin putting so much stock in test screenings anyway? Did it start with all that DC drama in 2016? 

[discussingnotfilms]

12 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Sony said they had moved KRAVEN THE HUNTER to stay away from other R-rated movies, then I checked the release calendar, and I couldn't find any movie that they should be worried about. It's clear they are worried about the movie itself. 🤣

well, they clearly pushed it to the end of the year to maximize it's award season chances🤣

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I just saw this x post. 

 

 

Lol next he's going to say reaction videos are totally the same as watching the movie, and that he's signed Ashleigh Burton and Popcorn In Bed to Netflix deals.

 

Like, Sarandos could just brag about how well Bridgerton is doing? And Netflix would be really dangerous if they ever cracked the code to original procedurals.

 

A part of Barbenheimer in many places was the opening being a social event or seeing both on the same day, and which one to watch first. Maybe some people would’ve dressed up in themed outfits and had parties at home but not to the same degree.