Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

[Joyous Legion]

Bad boys: tweeted 5.75, reported 5.875

Fall guy: 3M, 3.15M

GxK: 9.5M, 10M

GBFE: 4.5, 4.7

KFP: 3.5, 3.8

Dune: 11, 12   
 

Sometimes over, sometimes under. If you want to make claims about a consistent direction of error, why not check if it’s true first?

[filmscholar]

1 hour ago, Skim Beeble said:

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Jurassic World also had an NBA thing the day of its Thursday preview and that had a huge IM. This won't have an 11x IM like Jurassic World, but I'm wondering if high 50s or even low 60s are on the table.

 

Yeah I remember that.  Sometimes these events can hurt box office.   "Ultron"  was hurt by Mayweather fight.   There hasn't been any basketball for a week since both teams clinched the Finals quickly.    So Game 1 had big viewership last night.  Plus it's Boston Vs Dallas two huge cities in America.   

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.

Sorry but this response really doesn’t show much except that you don’t really understand how to judge whether predictions are good or not. Obviously it’s not 0% error every time, but modest errors balanced in direction is pretty much gold standard.  He isn’t “above criticism” but your criticism involved some factual claims that just weren’t and that deserves some pushback as well

Edited June 7 by Legion Again

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.

 

Why do I feel like this is very personal? No one has claimed he is perfect. Now that we are on this, I wish the mods who are still here [like how many are still functioning?] would be perfect by noticing that there are a dozen of 2024 and 2025 movie threads that are still in the On the Lot section and like no one has really bothered to put them in the main section. I guess this is fair criticism.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Kon said:

Until Deadpool 3 is released. Then, 100M OW will be 100M OW again.

Except Deadpool will open to 200 not 100

 

20 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

I remember back in the day, the forum just depended on Nikki Finke's very early numbers and we knew that they could be off because of how early they were reported. We enjoyed how the numbers changed throughout the day until the studios released their estimates. Fun times.

Blast from the past! I miss Nikki. 

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.

Unless you’re an actual custodian of box office numbers, I don’t see why any of this matters. The tracking errors between Charlie’s numbers and the actuals are never even that big, and calling it a “consistent pattern” like you’re his boss during a performance review is really creepy - sorry. I know this place has always had a toxicity problem, but when mods start picking fights with random users it sounds like a pretty good point to take a break

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.

Why are you only mad about overestimation? If you're expecting this unrealistic standard of accuracy then you should also be complaining every time he's too low. Unless you're encouraging deliberate lowballing which is just dishonest prediction.

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Except Deadpool will open to 200 not 100

 

Blast from the past! I miss Nikki. 

 

The constant pressing of F5 for new numbers. 😁

[Eric is Quiet]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Why do I feel like this is very personal? No one has claimed he is perfect. Now that we are on this, I wish the mods who are still here [like how many are still functioning?] would be perfect by noticing that there are a dozen of 2024 and 2025 movie threads that are still in the On the Lot section and like no one has really bothered to put them in the main section. I guess this is fair criticism.

 

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Unless you’re an actual custodian of box office numbers, I don’t see why any of this matters. The tracking errors between Charlie’s numbers and the actuals are never even that big, and calling it a “consistent pattern” like you’re his boss during a performance review is really creepy - sorry. I know this place has always had a toxicity problem, but when mods start picking fights with random users it sounds like a pretty good point to take a break

It’s…not personal? And I’m not picking a fight? I’m just arguing with Legion about something. And it hasn’t gotten hostile IMO. Spirited? Sure. But we’re just arguing over different viewpoints, which is what forums are all about. Nobody is insulting one another, so things are fine.

 

But you know? It’s clear neither party will agree, so I’ll end it here. I have my feelings, others have their own. It’s all good.

[M37]

43 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

Two weeks ago, Charlie's projections were 2.5M for Garfield and 4M for Furiosa. It went 1.9M and. 3.5M. Big drops. Charlie said 7M for Kingdom of the Apes, then it went lower at 6.6M. Challengers he had at 2.5M, then the actual was 1.9M. Civil War he had at 3.5M previews, and it was 2.9M.

So I haven't really been following much of late, but do you know what all of these films have in common? They all significantly (well Apes only a little) underperformed outside of the major metros, that demand did not spread as wide as expected. And even though these were "misses" for preview estimates, it still gave us that information that a weaker weekend was soon to follow, as the mid and lower tier market folks who didn't come out for Thursday probably weren't going to show up on FSS either.

 

It's entirely possible that the overall market is just weaker, in a bit of a downward spiral as the lack of quality/high demand product means fewer GA folk are even thinking about the movies right now, and the math has to be re-calibrated around that reality.

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

 

It’s…not personal? And I’m not picking a fight? I’m just arguing with Legion about something. And it hasn’t gotten hostile IMO. Spirited? Sure. But we’re just arguing over different viewpoints, which is what forums are all about. Nobody is insulting one another, so things are fine.

 

But you know? It’s clear neither party will agree, so I’ll end it here. I have my feelings, others have their own. It’s all good.

We aren’t really arguing about different “viewpoints” or “feelings” though. The question of “does Charlie consistently overestimate in initial preview tweets, or are errors about 50/50” is a pretty cold hard numerical objective matter and the answer is about 50/50. That’s not some opinion of mine it’s just the record of reality. You can check it. Anyone who’s curious can check it. It’s just that you didn’t do so, which is mostly what annoyed me about the whole thing

Edited June 7 by Legion Again

[ringedmortality]

One of us non mod users would have gotten warning points for attacking other users 

[M37]

1 minute ago, Legion Again said:

We aren’t really arguing about different “viewpoints” though. The question of “does Charlie consistently overestimate in initial preview tweets, or are errors about 50/50” is a pretty cold hard numerical objective matter and the answer is about 50/50. That’s not some opinion of mine it’s just the record of reality. You can check it. Anyone who’s curious can check it. 

Just want to note the irony of your position here alongside that specific quote as your posting signature

[filmlover]

This argument taking place in the weekend thread for the new Will Smith movie feels oddly fitting lmao.

 

[AniNate]

I don't care that much about accuracy tbh, I kinda wish all the trackers would intentionally lowball.

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Bad Boys brand surviving both the slap and  Diddy association, love to see it. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

Well at any rate at this point I think 50m is a high possibility and 60m is possible if walkups are insane.

[Joyous Legion]

To bring things back to weekend prognostication a bit I think there is something to sports impacting the preview walk ups a bit given demos and I am still thinking mid high 50s possible esp with what looks like very solid reception. Hope to wake up to s nice true Fri outlook

[kayumanggi]

Summer releases this time next year:

 

MAY

02 THUNDERBOLTS

09

16 FLOWERVALE STREET

23 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE VIII

30 KARATE KID

 

JUNE

06 BALLERINA

 

Disney has an untitled release for May 23, but I don't know what it could be. It looks like a better line up compared to this year, but interestingly, none is locked for 200M.

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

MAY

02 THUNDERBOLTS

09

16 FLOWERVALE STREET

23 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE VIII

30 KARATE KID

 

JUNE

06 BALLERINA

 

Man maybe MI8 actually cleans up