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The Wild Eric

Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

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1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

Top Gun, Barbie and now Inside Out 2....is this the new normal? One summer movie captures the casual moviegoers attention and when these movies breakout they really breakout.  

And interestingly, all of them were released in different months (May, July and June respectively). I guess we need to watch out for an August breakout next year?

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39 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

We can go further :

 

Best Second Weekend Drops for 80M+ Friday Openers without Holiday Second Weekend

 

  1. Top Gun: Maverick (2022): -28.9%
  2. Inside Out 2 (2024): -35.1%
  3. The Passion of The Christ (2004) : -36,5%
  4. Spider-Man (2002): -37.8%
  5. The Jungle Book (2016): -40.4%
  6. Joker (2019) : -41,9%
  7. Inside Out (2015) : -42,1%
  8. Barbie (2023): -42.6%
  9. Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3%
  10. Oppenheimer (2023) : -43,4%
  11. Dune Part Two (2024) : -44%
  12. Monster Academy (2013) : -44,7%
  13. Black Panther (2018) : -44,7%
  14. Finding Dory (2016): -46.0%
  15. Alice in Wonderland (2010): -46.0%
  16. Toy Story 3 (2010): -46.2%
  17. Despicable Me 2 (2013) : -47,4%
  18. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023): -47.6%
  19. Beauty and the Beast (2017): -48.3%
  20. Spider-Man 2 (2004) : -48,7%

 

Why exclude holiday second weekends? Most of those movies would still make this list even without the holiday so you can just add them in with an asterisk.

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6 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Why exclude holiday second weekends? Most of those movies would still make this list even without the holiday so you can just add them in with an asterisk.

yeah I was going to ask too... seems to arbitrarily exclude November and December releases with no good reason.

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4 minutes ago, XXR & Friends said:

Who would have thought 6 months ago that Inside Out 2 would be headed towards being a top 10 all-time domestic and worldwide film?

 

Hopefully we get at least 4, billion dollar films this year.

Between Deadpool , Gladiator 2 , Joker 2 , Moana 2,Mufasa , Minions there are possibility. 

 

I think Gladiator will be a major force. My bet is Moana 2, Gladiator and Minions to join the billion dollar club.

Edited by elinio
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1 hour ago, Mickiland16 said:

Depend of the releases, I know we have said this before for 2023 and 2024 but summer 2025 doesn't really have something? Like there could be overperformances like idk Superman making more than The Batman, Elio going over $300M because of WOM or Captain America 4 reaching Civil War numbers. But I can't see this kind of breakout 

Fantastic Four (if the release is still july) and Jurassic World (if the quality is here) will be very huge .

 

How To Train Your Dragon also can be a big hit.

 

And Karate Kid (think about the success of Cobra Kai) has a big potential (lot of nostalgy with Jackie Chan and Ralph Maccio).

 

And of course there will be "Passion of The christ; resurrection", we don't know exactly the release date. But this one will be huge.

Edited by elinio
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19 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Why exclude holiday second weekends? Most of those movies would still make this list even without the holiday so you can just add them in with an asterisk.

 

It's pretty straightforward, no? It's not about whether a film would "make the list" or not, but rather having a list of generally comparable films when comparing second weekend drops. It's a whole lot more useful to compare Inside Out 2's second weekend drop to other films whose 2nd weekends were also not shaped by holidays. It's the same reason the list only includes Friday openers, because it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to compare the drops of Wednesday openers to Friday openers - particularly in this age of previews that are rolled into the weekend when you're a Friday opener.

 

We do this kind of parsing all of the time when making lists for comparison's sake. 

 

Of course, no list is perfect, because genre, time of year, etc, are complicating factors, too. No list is "definitive". Overall, however, it gives a snapshot look at how well it has performed. Given the strength of its weekdays this past week, and how it compares to other animated/Pixar films of this size, I think that puts the strength of this weekend drop into perspective, too.

 

Peace,

Mike

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1 hour ago, Flopped said:

It was smart to report it at 100M. 

 

All the press it's going to get for staying at 100M+ in its second weekend is likely to convince some people who were on the fence to go see it today. 

 

So the headlines may actually be what gets it to 100M. 

 

Sunday's 20% drop is quite a high ask. I know IO2 didn't get much Father day's bump last Sunday but having second Sunday's drop better than first Sunday is still quite challenging. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Kon said:

These seem to be good numbers.

 

I wonder how Despicable Me 4 numbers will be be for OW.

They are quite great in fact, in line with Minion2. The last DM franchise movie opened on Wednesday was DM2 with 5 days 143m. Judging from early overseas number, 5 days OW for DM4 should be minimum 100m although I am thinking 120m. 

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7 minutes ago, elinio said:

Fantastic Four (if the release is still july) and Jurassic World (if the quality is here) will be very huge .

 

How To Train Your Dragon also can be a big hit.

 

And Karate Kid (think about the success of Cobra Kai) has a big potential (lot of nostalgy with Jackie Chan and Ralph Maccio).

 

And of course there will be "Passion of The christ;ressurection", we don't know exactly the release date. But this one will be huge.

Fantastic Four and Jurassic 7 will be big but Idk if Barbie/IO2/TGM kind of breakout. 

 

I keep forgetting Passion of the Christ sequel is actually coming out next year lol. It's supposed to released same date as Michael which makes me doubt about the performance of the latter now. It will be HUGE if they get every Christian seated like the first movie 

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Releasing Passion of the Christ 2 on the Easter weekend is strange. It's like putting out a Christmas movie on December 23. The original was so big in part because it legged out through March in the lead-up to it, before dying immediately afterwards.

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11 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

I keep forgetting Passion of the Christ sequel is actually coming out next year lol. It's supposed to released same date as Michael which makes me doubt about the performance of the latter now. It will be HUGE if they get every Christian seated like the first movie 

If it actually gets released on the same date -and with reservations on Michael's rating.; I think they'll co-exist perfectly fine.

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People say Moana 2 will make more than Zootopia 2 because of streaming but remember Inside Out didn’t seem to have much of a streaming or merchandising presence and it is now doing what it is doing. Maybe Zootopia fans are also quiet like IO fans 

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