Juby Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 4 hours ago, Madhuvan said: Agree I think people are overestimating IO2 a bit. I think 600m is best case scenario for now. Inside Out 2 is already ahead of Incredibles 2 and the last summer's Barbie (with better 2nd weekend and a smaller drop!) after 10 days in release. Those films finished their box office runs with $608.6m and $636.2m respectively. With a summer as "empty" as 2024 one I don't see how this new Pixar hit would miss $640m dom. Meanwhile... Inside Out 2’s hold is nothing short of spectacular. After its opening weekend, our model predicted a final domestic total of $455 million for the film, based on comparable openings. Its new prediction this morning is $558 million, and something well beyond that remains a possibility. After a slow May, this is exactly the boost the market needed. https://the-numbers.com/news/257100830-Weekend-projections-Inside-Out-posts-100-million-second-weekend Bruce Nash at his finest Comparable openings are TDK nad R1 - both with +$530m final domestic results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric is Quiet Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Migs20242 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 4 hours ago, titanic2187 said: Yeah, remember Mario was all set for 600m finish only to have an unexpectedly weak hold against GOTG3 and ruin its hope to even come close to 600m. IO2 has summer days, SM did not. It's same reason I never expected SM to catch I2. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kon Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 (edited) 1 hour ago, Krissykins said: We took one of my nieces for her first ever cinema experience yesterday (she’s 3 in September), and we went to Inside Out 2. The trailers for Moana 2 and Wicked got a bigger reaction from her than the film itself, but she seemed to have a great time considering how young she is she was pretty engaged despite a few naps. Afterwards she was chasing the digital posters for Wicked shouting “the witch and the princess!” And she obviously has no clue what Wicked even is. So maybe that could end up being big. I'm not surprised Moana 2 or Wicked gave a bigger impression to a little kid. Inside Out 2 is really good even if you don't totally understand the story, but it works a lot better for people who understand Riley's experience in the movie. It's also funny that Wicked isn't exactly a movie for little kids, but it's still visually appealing to them. Edited June 24 by Kon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Not sure about 700M DOM but as this moment it does seem likely to surpass Barbie DOM. Would that make it the #3 move DOM after NWH and AtWoW post Covid? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 17 hours ago, MikeQ said: It's pretty straightforward, no? It's not about whether a film would "make the list" or not, but rather having a list of generally comparable films when comparing second weekend drops. It's a whole lot more useful to compare Inside Out 2's second weekend drop to other films whose 2nd weekends were also not shaped by holidays. It's the same reason the list only includes Friday openers, because it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to compare the drops of Wednesday openers to Friday openers - particularly in this age of previews that are rolled into the weekend when you're a Friday opener. We do this kind of parsing all of the time when making lists for comparison's sake. Of course, no list is perfect, because genre, time of year, etc, are complicating factors, too. No list is "definitive". Overall, however, it gives a snapshot look at how well it has performed. Given the strength of its weekdays this past week, and how it compares to other animated/Pixar films of this size, I think that puts the strength of this weekend drop into perspective, too. Peace, Mike I agree with you that the season of the year, the size of the opening, the day of the opening (friday vs wednesday) or even the genre (animation vs superhero for example) greatly affect the size of the second weekend drop (in addition to WOM) which is why I wouldn't have a problem with a "Best Second Weekend Drops for 80M+ Friday Openers" or "Best Second Weekend Drops for 80M+ Friday Openers in June" or even "Best Animated Movies' Second Weekend Drops for 80M+ Openers" Where I disagree though is specifically the exclusion of holiday openers as it not only randomly excludes a vast swath of movies making the chart misleading but also greatly overestimates the impact of a holiday in the second weekend. There is pretty much no situation where a movie which was going to drop 50% instead dropped just 30% because of the holiday. The holiday after all only affects a single day in the weekend (for the most part). Typically it only really improves the drop by low a single digit % if even that. And it's pretty easy to know that since we just have to exclude the holiday affected day and see how the other days performed. Or put another way, Memorial Day didn't really improve the drop of Shrek 2 by more than Father's day improved the drop of Jurassic World: a few percentage points at most, and in the latter case, you (correctly) used an asterisk to point out that fact rather than exclude it from the ranking. But anyway, I understand that this is just a personal choice of yours and in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter much I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Until the last week when our trackers were seeing IO2 pick up steam I was thinking a nice 80/325 type of run for IO2, and last summer I thought that was the type of run Barbie would have so I clearly have no insight into what is going to absolutely hit for the GA, but this movie has clearly hit a sweet spot with the GA. I would expect it to easily pass SMB. Even if you compare day of week (Sunday to Sunday) IO2 is already ahead of SMB even though it is day 10 for IO2 and day 12 for SMB. IO2 is going to fly past SMB on weekdays with a summer release compared to a spring release. Over/under Barbie DOM would seem to be the target now. IO2 is going to have to deal with DM4 in 10 days but it has the advantage of a long Holiday weekend which should help its hold and IO2 was also released earlier in the summer than Barbie so it has more summer weekdays than Barbie. After DM4 there is really nothing left on the summer schedule that should cause it any real issues. With IO2 holding onto the #1 spot in the few markets that DM4 opened in this weekend that suggests IO2 should likely hold fine against DM4's opening next week Most importantly this is a big boost to the theaters that really needed it. With the lower ATP the number of admissions is higher which means more popcorn, candy and drinks being bought at the theaters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 hour ago, Kon said: It's also funny that Wicked isn't exactly a movie for little kids, but it's still visually appealing to them. I mean, The Wizard of Oz does remain one of the most beloved movies of all time and especially one of the most beloved family films that continues to be discovered by children to this day. This movie is arguably banking just as much, if not more, on the Oz IP as it is on the Broadway musical's enduring popularity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Also just noticed Kind of Kindness dropped nearly 50% on Saturday from Friday. Was there a Q&A or something that would've inflated the numbers (never underestimate the desire to see someone famous in person heh)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Just now, filmlover said: Also just noticed Kind of Kindness dropped nearly 50% on Saturday from Friday. Was there a Q&A or something that would've inflated the numbers (never underestimate the desire to see someone famous in person heh)? I thought that is the common trend now for limited release in specialty market? They all had big drop between first fri-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: I thought that is the common trend now for limited release in specialty market? They all had big drop between first fri-Sat. Not to this extent though typically. An example of a limited opening powered by in-person Q&As: Beautiful Boy (2018) Oct 12, 2018 - $106,562 4 $26,641 $106,562 1 Oct 13, 2018 - $66,875 -37% 4 $16,719 $173,437 2 Oct 14, 2018 - $45,451 -32% 4 $11,363 $218,888 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Not sure about 700M DOM but as this moment it does seem likely to surpass Barbie DOM. Would that make it the #3 move DOM after NWH and AtWoW post Covid? Gotta pass avatar to make top 3 (nwh TGM) but looks like a solid shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Looking at how successful IO is and how big DM4 already started overseas, I can’t understand why they don’t make another Ice Age. The nostalgia for that must be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 (edited) 13 minutes ago, James said: Looking at how successful IO is and how big DM4 already started overseas, I can’t understand why they don’t make another Ice Age. The nostalgia for that must be crazy. Disney owns it now via the Fox sale and they put out a straight-to-Disney+ spin-off in 2022. Imagine there's no rush to revive it on the big screen given the last one earned awful reviews (18% RT score) and flopped at the box office in 2016 (even international auds that drove the previous ones to such huge global totals mostly stayed away). Blue Sky (the animation studio) no longer exists as well. Edited June 24 by filmlover 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 9 hours ago, InVy said: only real Pixar miss was Lightyear and even then it was just Pixar trying it's own Ad Astra, but only Nolan can make successful space films, that's the lesson there. Well let's hope Elio is an exception. Hey Lilo & Stitch did pretty well, didn't it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 6 hours ago, Madhuvan said: Agree I think people are overestimating IO2 a bit. I think 600m is best case scenario for now. Remember not only DM4 but AQP prequel too and IO2 is attracting many adults. I think this weekend will be like 55m-60m. For a 620m finish. Also ww also DM4 will impact , expecting 1.3b for now. Inside Out 2 would have to have record breaking bad legs to only make $600m. Like 2.5x off this weekend. Not even Finding Dory had as bad late legs as that. It had a 2.75x second weekend multi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 3 minutes ago, cannastop said: Well let's hope Elio is an exception. Hey Lilo & Stitch did pretty well, didn't it? And WALL-E. If anyone can break that trend it's Pixar coming off a bonanza box office run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontofan Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Ice age overseas gross were wild Ice age 3: 690 million in 2009 Ice age 4: 715 million in 2013 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 31 minutes ago, filmlover said: Blue Sky (the animation studio) no longer exists as well. yep Disney killed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
