Weekend Numbers [Aug 02 - Aug 04, 2024] | Actuals | 96.81M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 22.80M TWISTERS | 15.45M TRAP

[Assassin]

Critics hate it, audience love it!

 

Edited August 3 by Assassin

[THUNDER BIRD]

5 minutes ago, Assassin said:

Critics hate it, audience love it!

Well what's new. 

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It'll top 2022 I think, but 2023 would require virtually everything to wildly overperform in at least the way Twisters did, with a couple of DP2 and IO2 sized breakouts. Maybe! But really doubtful to thread that needle.

 

Way I see it, we are headed towards 24 100m movies (23 obvious ones and one surprise), which is close to last year (with Garfield, Fall Guy, and Marley just missing it). Problem is, we are probably going to finish 10 or so 50m movies behind last year, and about the same number of 25m+ movies less too. The bottom fell out in that part of the bracket, and it is an open question whether it is just a strike issue and more content will fix it, or if the box office is going to be this top heavy moving forward.

 

I think what you're saying is definitely true.

 

Yes, the strikes did not help at all and once that roadblock is out of the way, I think we'll have more $50M or $25M-grossing movies in the marketplace. For me, the hope is that any of the No Way Home, Maverick, or Barbie-style movies we'll get a few times a year that just go crazy and do at least more than $500M domestically make up for any mid-budget titles that don't hit $50M or even $25M.

 

It's not exactly ideal, but I don't know what anyone would classify as ideal in this marketplace right now. Whatever we gotta take, we gotta take as long as it brings people out to the theaters. 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

It definitely overperformed, but I'll admit that even as escatic as I am about Deadpool and Wolverine's numbers right now and the rest of the summer films that overperformed, the adult counterprogramming that bombed this summer really is a shame. 

 

The Bikeriders, Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1, Kinds of Kindness, Fly Me to the Moon, and even The Fall Guy (though people slowly showed up for that one) had potential to be solid hits, but people made it pretty damn clear that they did not want to see any of those movies in a theater. Though I still love the irony that people panicked when the franchise prequel (Furiosa) flopped and not any of those films that weren't IP-driven and were attempts to play alongside the franchise titles. 

The writing was on the wall that pretty much all of those weren't going to take off by the time they opened and one could argue even before that. The Bikeriders in particular felt DOA after its original studio gave up on it and sold it to another studio after losing its Christmas date.

[ThomasNicole]

C+ for Trap

 

Similar ballpark of ... Unbreakable, The Village, Old and Knock At The Cabin. It´s all over the place. 

 

Curious for how it´ll hold it, Longlegs wasn´t hurt it by a C+. This is more a thriller than horror but still, somewhat similar audiences.

[AniNate]

Given how they're both apparently done and how good buzz seems to be for both movies, I think either Transformers One or Wild Robot ought to have given this weekend and month an extra boost and themselves a little more breathing room from competition moving to this weekend. I don't know if Mutant Mayhem's unimpressive take implored Paramount to experiment a little but the September setup does not seem ideal. It's a moot point now though and I do still hold out hope for good performances from both of them.

[Assassin]

critics hate it, audiences also hate it.

[Killimano3]

Honestly what sucks most is that I keep seeing people say how these low to mid budget films that play as counterprogramming to the big IPs have gone away because they've moved to streaming, but let's be honest... Where are these good streaming films I keep hearing about? Like sure every year we get a couple Oscar bait films that are pretty good and maybe one or two films that get a lot of watches like Red Notice. But is there really an equal amount of quality films releasing on streaming to match how many seem to have vanished from theaters? Doesn't feel like it to me. They've just sort of gone nowhere. Or been replaced by a bunch of Made-for-TV films cosplaying as blockbusters

[cannastop]

Just now, Killimano3 said:

Where are these good streaming films I keep hearing about

who said they were good?

[Ryan C]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

C+ for Trap

 

Similar ballpark of ... Unbreakable, The Village, Old and Knock At The Cabin. It´s all over the place. 

 

Curious for how it´ll hold it, Longlegs wasn´t hurt it by a C+. This is more a thriller than horror but still, somewhat similar audiences.

 

Even with that C+, Longlegs was definitely a buzzier and more acclaimed horror film than Trap is right now. That is probably what kept it from falling as high as Trap probably will next weekend (calling a 60% drop right now). Also, Longlegs is not a commercial horror film in the slightest, so I can kind of understand the low Cinemascore. 

 

Trap is way more straightforward and (to an extent) conventional than Longlegs, so it kind of needed a stronger Cinemascore than a C+. I guess it could've been worse, but it definitely won't do much in terms of helping it going forward. 

 

I won't call it a disappointment yet, but compared to where I was a few days ago with this movie, it's definitely not living up to the potential it could've had box office-wise. 

[cooldude97]

man the Furiosa situation is kinda funny when you remember it was supposed to come out 5 years ago and was potentially going to be an anime by Studio Ghibli

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Killimano3 said:

Honestly what sucks most is that I keep seeing people say how these low to mid budget films that play as counterprogramming to the big IPs have gone away because they've moved to streaming, but let's be honest... Where are these good streaming films I keep hearing about? Like sure every year we get a couple Oscar bait films that are pretty good and maybe one or two films that get a lot of watches like Red Notice. But is there really an equal amount of quality films releasing on streaming to match how many seem to have vanished from theaters? Doesn't feel like it to me. They've just sort of gone nowhere. Or been replaced by a bunch of Made-for-TV films cosplaying as blockbusters

 

Hit Man probably could've been a solid performer releasing in theaters. I think it did actually boost Glen Powell's profile in time for Twisters. The BHC sequel also has great viewership numbers on Netflix and likely could've been a theatrical performer with an actual marketing investment.

 

Also this wasn't a summer release, but Orion and the Dark definitely could've given the early year box office a shot in the arm if it was released in theaters. There was nothing coming out for kids when it dropped on Netflix, and I suspect Dreamworks does feel some contract remorse there given the feature length adaptation of their Netflix series is getting a theatrical release next year.

[BK007]

28 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I absolutely agree with all of this, but I do think that next year (with hopefully no strike-related impact) that we can start making heads or tails on the state of the box office and what kinds of movies are breaking out. We definitely need more than just superhero movies, four-quadrant animated sequels, and the occasional strong franchise film to break out, but considering how messed up the schedule was for this year because of the strikes, I really do take anything (even the most blatant franchise cash-in) as a win for theaters. 

 

Also, when I was saying to not be disappointed, I wasn't explicitly talking about you. I'm sure everybody in this thread knows that the box office needs more than franchises to survive and that 2024 will not be in the levels of 2023 (as sad as that sounds). I was mainly talking to the people (like Indiewire or the people who thought The Fall Guy and Furiosa bombing was the death of cinema) who are ready to throw out their doom and gloom posts regarding the fact that 2024 is still behind 2023's pace while completely forgetting about the reasons why January, February, April, and May were so weak in the first place. 

 

 

I think that the shift for certain types of movies is permanent. 

 

If you're already paying for a streaming service that will debut the film in 3 months or less, it just doesn't make sense to watch it in the cinema for a number of genres. At that stage you need phenomenal WOM and a hype cycle that is outside of paid media to convince people to see it now.

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Given how they're both apparently done and how good buzz seems to be for both movies, I think either Transformers One or Wild Robot ought to have given this weekend and month an extra boost and themselves a little more breathing room from competition moving to this weekend. I don't know if Mutant Mayhem's unimpressive take implored Paramount to experiment a little but the September setup does not seem ideal. It's a moot point now though and I do still hold out hope for good performances from both of them.

 

I hope both do well, but I don't think TMNT: Mutant Mayhem's unimpressive take convinced Paramount to not put Transformers One this weekend. 

 

By the way, Mutant Mayhem actually did pretty well domestically. It just didn't connect with international audiences and led to a pretty underwhelming final worldwide total. Whether that was because of the brand not being as strong overseas or Barbenheimer just sweeping away all the competition, I'm not entirely sure. 

 

Still, I do think either Paramount or Universal should move either film to a different slot to not have them that close together. Though I'm betting on The Wild Robot to do better than Transformers One. Maybe if the latter had the look of TMNT: Mutant Mayhem, I would be more optimistic about it, but I just feel that the animation style (though not bad) is gonna be a potential turnoff for people who aren't automatically fans of this franchise. 

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

I think that the shift for certain types of movies is permanent. 

 

If you're already paying for a streaming service that will debut the film in 3 months or less, it just doesn't make sense to watch it in the cinema for a number of genres. At that stage you need phenomenal WOM and a hype cycle that is outside of paid media to convince people to see it now.

 

What's sad is that kind of phenomenal WOM and hype cycle you brought up has occured with films within certain genres, but it mostly seems to occur within the horror genre. 

 

Anyone But You was the one time it happened with the rom-com genre, but we gotta have more than just the occasional exception every year. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

While 100m would definitely put 600m in the discussion front and center for Deadpool and Wolverine, matching or beating Inside Out 2 for the domestic crown is still up in the air. Inside Out 2 held phenomenally well and while opening at least 60m lower than Deadpool and Wolverine, it’s going to run circles around it in terms of legs. But I could eat my words come the end of its run.

 

Also in terms of the box office discussion in box office health, 2025 is going to be a way better barometer to test if the box office is recovering or if it’s a sinking ship. Unless another strike or a pandemic happens. I doubt it. 

[AniNate]

I do think vibe wise September makes more sense for Wild Robot than August, and I imagine Uni didn't want it eating into Despicable Me business and is also legit invested in it as a prestige effort with the TIFF premiere. TFOne though seems like it would've been a lot better off in August, and I have to imagine that was a consideration with the SDCC screening.

 

 

Edited August 3 by AniNate

[Darth Lehnsherr]

 

42 minutes ago, Assassin said:

Critics hate it, audience love it!

 

It was for the fans!

Edited August 3 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Ryan C]

15 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

While 100m would definitely put 600m in the discussion front and center for Deadpool and Wolverine, matching or beating Inside Out 2 for the domestic crown is still up in the air. Inside Out 2 held phenomenally well and while opening at least 60m lower than Deadpool and Wolverine, it’s going to run circles around it in terms of legs. But I could eat my words come the end of its run.

 

Also in terms of the box office discussion in box office health, 2025 is going to be a way better barometer to test if the box office is recovering or if it’s a sinking ship. Unless another strike or a pandemic happens. I doubt it. 

 

I think what's gonna keep Deadpool and Wolverine potentially passing Inside Out 2 domestically in the conversation is that unlike IO2, it won't have to face serious direct competition. 

 

Even if Inside Out 2 wasn't hurt by Despicable Me 4, it definitely did stop it from going any higher than where it is right now. We'd be talking $700M domestically for Inside Out 2 had it be the only animated/family movie offering in the marketplace. 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine will have to contend with Alien: Romulus, but that's as far as it gets in terms of direct competition and I can guarantee you that Romulus will not be as big as Despicable Me 4. From there, it's pretty much smooth sailing (including a nice Labor Day weekend or Cinema Day boost) until Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, but even that movie is going after a much younger demographic. 

 

We'll see in the next couple of weeks where D&W is headed, but I think at the very least $600M is locked. It's just a matter if word-of-mouth can sustain it until we get to September. 

Edited August 3 by Ryan C

[cooldude97]

honestly expecting the wild robot to underwhelm which is unfortunate since I think that it looks like it's going to be the best animated movie of the year