Weekend Numbers [Aug 02 - Aug 04, 2024] | Actuals | 96.81M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 22.80M TWISTERS | 15.45M TRAP

[WorkingonaName]

A3: $2B

 

JW4: $900M

 

Superman: $500M

 

FF: $400M

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 minute ago, Cooper Legion said:

Hard to see it below 300 for me with 2025 atps and historical franchise admits

 

Sure poor reception of jw2&3 will hurt some but being new trilogy (kinda) should insulate some

The poor reception is why I’m expecting a drop for it. IIRC Dominion had mediocre legs and basically was forced over the billion mark by Universal. Granted if the script really is as good as those involved and not are saying (Glen Powell was hyping it up despite turning it down) then I suppose it could make up the difference.

 

It’s a similar reason why I’m not currently expecting big numbers for Superman and Fantastic Four. Previous entries have had mixed/bad box office and response, but there’s been good buzz for both (Superman set photos have had the most talk I’ve seen for a CBM since Deadpool; FF had the best buzz of any of the Marvel stuff from SDCC aside from the RDJ/Doom news).

 

As for Avatar I’m actually expecting an increase over two. That films performance despite basically just being set up was a showcase of interest, and everyone involved is hyping up 3 as being the best so far of the series. Obviously that’s studio talk but I got a real good feeling about it. 

[Ryan C]

9 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

 

 

It Ends with Us potentially opening at #1 and doing more than $50M would be one of the greatest surprises of this summer. 

 

More so than Inside Out 2 blowing all expectations away and Twisters having an insanely impressive domestic performance. 

[HummingLemon496]

23 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

All I want is a summer film to gross $600M+. Personally hope it's Superman.

Is this domestic? No chance Superman does $600M+ DOM

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

It Ends With Us doesn’t look like my type of movie but anytime a mid budget drama has a breakout success is a time to celebrate. 

[HummingLemon496]

33 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

JW4 375

Superman 400

FF 450

Av3 550

Zootopia 2?

[Relevation]

22 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

The three year gap before immediately restarting the series seems way too soon especially after the last one ended for Jurassic World. I can see it drop a decent chunk from Dominion. Thought the issue is there's nothing else on the 2025 summer list that's a guaranteed $300M+.

People aren’t looking hard enough for what will truly be the big boy of summer 2025

 

Spoiler

$275-300M DOM, $850M+ WW baby lock it in

Can never doubt Joseph Kosinski action movies with super impressive filmmaking

 

[HummingLemon496]

Avatar 2 dropped a massive 1/3rd from Avatar 1 admissions (48M for A2 and 74M for A1). First Avatar is in the top three of the 21st century (only behind TFA/Endgame) whereas Avatar 2 isn't even the top 30.

 

 

Edited August 4 by HummingLemon496

[Spidey Freak]

55 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

As for Avatar I’m actually expecting an increase over two. That films performance despite basically just being set up was a showcase of interest, and everyone involved is hyping up 3 as being the best so far of the series. Obviously that’s studio talk but I got a real good feeling about it. 

 

A2 benefitted a ton from lack of competition for near 2 months. How's the schedule around A3 looking?

[kayumanggi]

2024 is now just 0.4% behind 2022. Will overtake it this weekend.

[baumer]

2 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

 

 

They have changed even on Spotify itself lmao. It’s still growing, currently Top #11 global.

 

 

Shawn Levy looks like he's got the Midas touch when it comes to resurrecting old songs and then making money hand over fist for the artists. 

 

I did it in a stranger things with Kate bushes running up that hill which was a very minor hit in the eighties and then turned into a viral sensation where Kate Bush said she made more money from that song after stranger things then she did when it was first released. 

 

Now he's partially responsible for N Synch becoming relevant again with bye bye bye.

[HummingLemon496]

I just realized Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) might actually be a good comp for DPW second weekend onward

[ZattMurdock]

24 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

Shawn Levy looks like he's got the Midas touch when it comes to resurrecting old songs and then making money hand over fist for the artists. 

 

I did it in a stranger things with Kate bushes running up that hill which was a very minor hit in the eighties and then turned into a viral sensation where Kate Bush said she made more money from that song after stranger things then she did when it was first released. 

 

Now he's partially responsible for N Synch becoming relevant again with bye bye bye.

Very well pointed out and I hadn’t connected both. Not sure if we should give that credit to Shawn or Ryan, but likely both, but I do felt throughout the film that he brought a lot of his sensibilities from that episode into Deadpool & Wolverine and I mean that as a compliment, S4 of Stranger Thjngs brought me back into that series since I kinda fell off after the perfect S1. While I’m not a big fan of S2 and S3, everything is forgiven with how hard they went with S4, that Max’s episode lives inside my head rent free.
 

I’m noticing some Star Wars fans startled and worried with Shawn Levy going for a Star Wars film on social media, and I think they need to chill. Shawn Levy came to Marvel Studios to deliver a Deadpool & Wolverine film and he delivered the most Deadpool & Wolverine film I’ve ever seen. It’s a good thing that he is doing a Star Wars film now, there is a certain Steven Spielberg inspired quality to Levy’s directing that I think will work well with Star Wars, and I don’t mean like he is trying to cover Spielberg like Abrams sometimes does, I mean when we look through his whole filmography, from Real Steel to now, this is a man that has clearly evolved a lot as a filmmaker and has a clear Spielberg influence despite doing its own thing.

 

BTW, the story how Ryan Reynolds and Shawn Levy convinced Madonna to use Like A Prayer is incredible.

 

 

 

Thank you, Madonna’s son if you ever read this. We owe you and your mother one of the most incredible moments in superhero history. And whatever suggestion you did… perfection.  

Edited August 4 by ZattMurdock

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

41 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

A2 benefitted a ton from lack of competition for near 2 months. How's the schedule around A3 looking?

Right now there’s just the next SpongeBob movie as immediate competition and that’s obviously targeting a very different audience (there’s untitled Uni and WB “event films” too). In terms of after, the next big competition is a Last Airbender movie in January followed by a Marvel film in February.

 

A2 had Puss In Boots, Babylon and Whitney Houston as immediate competition.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Zootopia 2?

$700M

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$700M

Sounds reasonable IMO. 

 

Moana 2?

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I just realized Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) might actually be a good comp for DPW second weekend onward

Hmm, intriguing. The calendar lines up correctly in terms of Labor Day/return to school, and competition lines up relatively well too.

Gotg:

true fss 83.12M

d4-10 82.2M (~99%)

d11-17 46.15M (-44%)

after 111M (x2.4)

DPW:

~99M (+19% Gotg)

est 104M (+26.5%)

Quite realistically follow Gotg for ~57M //559

after that Gotg had insane late legs — x2.4 is avg ~29.5% drops, would give +137M //696M

more modestly perhaps x2 -> 559+114=673M   
 

Overall I would guess that the gotg1 offset week straight comp will overestimate for a while but it’s definitely a useful comparison to keep an eye on and see how much it’s sliding (or not) as we get more data rolling in

[baumer]

21 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Sounds reasonable IMO. 

 

Moana 2?

 

Rounders 2

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Hmm, intriguing. The calendar lines up correctly in terms of Labor Day/return to school, and competition lines up relatively well too.

Gotg:

true fss 83.12M

d4-10 82.2M (~99%)

d11-17 46.15M (-44%)

after 111M (x2.4)

DPW:

~99M (+19% Gotg)

est 104M (+26.5%)

Quite realistically follow Gotg for ~57M //559

after that Gotg had insane late legs — x2.4 is avg ~29.5% drops, would give +137M //696M

more modestly perhaps x2 -> 559+114=673M   
 

Overall I would guess that the gotg1 offset week straight comp will overestimate for a while but it’s definitely a useful comparison to keep an eye on and see how much it’s sliding (or not) as we get more data rolling in

Yeah that shit had crazy good late legs. It opened slightly lower than Quantumania but comparing weekend 5 it's 17.08M for GOTG vs 4.22M for QM 

[wildphantom]

Like a Prayer and its use elevated the entire last act for me. Such nostalgia for that song (first two CD’s I ever bought were her Immaculate Collection and the soundtrack to Top Gun).
 

To see Prayer used in such a way definitely overcame many of my misgivings about the film. 
 

A great needle drop can work wonders in any film, as we’ve seen for decades. Although sometimes people understate just how much heavy lifting the song is doing.