Weekend Numbers | 09.27 - 09.29, 2024 | Actuals | 35.79M THE WILD ROBOT | 16.22M BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE | 9.16 TRANSFORMERS ONE

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

Joker will disappoint big time.

How much do you predict for it next weekend?

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

How much do you predict for it next weekend?

I dont have any special data to project. Based on data from 3-4 days back it had sold 17.5K for early shows and 34K for thursday. Friday was 24K. That is not good. But I have no idea about daily pace/acceleration to project. only thing we know for sure is its not coming anywhere in the ballpark of the last movie. 

 

This is probably the 1st "big" movie where we dont have any sense of daily pace for any large TC or markets. We lost almost everyone who used to post daily updates. if we had Sacramento we could have extrapolated. 

[keysersoze123]

nm. double post. 

Edited Friday at 07:10 PM by keysersoze123

[Speedorito]

7 minutes ago, YM! said:

It was so fucking stupid Universal or Paramount didn't swallow their pride and move one of the robot movies a few weeks later so both could thrive.

Honestly I think it’s just lack of interest in either film, not two films eating into each other.

 

Plus I know it was a while ago, but maybe the masses got their fill with Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 in the same summer.

[WebSurfer]

Guess I'll say it here to...

 

Given how Transformers One and The Wild Robot have done/are doing, especially when compared to the trackers, I’m not sure if I can ever trust personal trackers on BOT ever again. These two movies deserved better.
 

I’m hoping for somewhere between 35-45 million for TWR at this point, but who the hell knows anymore.

[Cmasterclay]

September is a bad time to release an animated movie tbh, especially in the post COVID enshitification world, back to school time is such a hassle for families with so many other things spinning now. Things don't really get better for them until that Wicked/Moana stretch. I will say that if it's kind of a bad idea to release an animated movie in September, it's definitely a bad idea to release two of them, both about robots, in back to back weeks. Pretty inexplicable.

[Speedorito]

6 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

Guess I'll say it here to...

 

Given how Transformers One and The Wild Robot have done/are doing, especially when compared to the trackers, I’m not sure if I can ever trust personal trackers on BOT ever again. These two movies deserved better.
 

I’m hoping for somewhere between 35-45 million for TWR at this point, but who the hell knows anymore.

I know it’s disappointing but I don’t think it’s fair to throw away years of hard work over just two animated films underperforming on opening weekend.

[filmlover]

31 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Wicked and Venom both breakout to offset these disappointments somewhat but given the billion dollar deficit against 2023, it's not gonna be quite enough. A good effort though.

It's starting to feel like Wicked is going to be a smaller scale Beauty and the Beast '17/Barbie in that it's a female-driven tentpole with high interest among its target audience but with enough 4 quad appeal to help it break out with other demos. An opening over $100M doesn't seem that crazy if the stars align perfectly for it.

 

I will say that if both The Wild Robot and Transformers end up underperformers, it just goes to show how dicey animated sci-fi is at the box office after decades of movies that failed to launch. In retrospect, it's probably a miracle WALL-E made as much as it did. Good luck to Elio breaking the curse next year, I guess.

Edited Friday at 07:27 PM by filmlover

[Maggie]

I wish everyone post their Joker 2 predictions. I don't wanna be shocked by the numbers when next weekend arrives

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Maggie said:

I wish everyone post their Joker 2 predictions. I don't wanna be shocked by the numbers when next weekend arrives

Everyone knows The Numbers will likely be  bad, why derail a weekend thread about other movies talking about how bad Joker can be next weekend?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

I wish everyone post their Joker 2 predictions. I don't wanna be shocked by the numbers when next weekend arrives

The same $45-55M range as The Marvels and The Flash seems about right at this point. A nasty fall from the first movie (that will look worse in the long run since it has no chance at duplicating that movie's staying power), but the writing's been on the wall for a while.

[AniNate]

I'm already sick of Joker

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I'm already sick of Joker

[filmlover]

Will say that as a jumping point October does look weak overall. Saturday Night is looking to come and go without much fanfare despite all the free press SNL is about to receive this season (their 50th). Smile 2 is unlikely to duplicate the surprise run of its predecessor, though should still benefit from being the most high-profile horror movie released around Halloween.

 

If Venom also underperforms then maybe we can say studios were wise to mostly steer clear of the weeks leading up to the election.

[AniNate]

56 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont see this hitting 30m. Looking at even big markets, sales for saturday look just meh. I am thinking mid 20s OW at this point. With this release date even 100m is a question at this point. I am not convinced its going to do well overseas as well. 

 

I find it hard to believe TWR would end up finishing behind IF for the weekend even after bigger Thursday previews stifled by a hurricane and better Friday MTC1 pace. I'm sure the walkups will come.

 

Have to admit it would be pretty legit disappointing if they didn't though. 

[Speedorito]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Will say that as a jumping point October does look weak overall. Saturday Night is looking to come and go without much fanfare despite all the free press SNL is about to receive this season (their 50th). Smile 2 is unlikely to duplicate the surprise run of its predecessor, though should still benefit from being the most high-profile horror movie released around Halloween.

 

If Venom also underperforms then maybe we can say studios were wise to mostly steer clear of the weeks leading up to the election.

Hmm, I did speculate that Joker coming in significantly below expectations could be the canary in the coal mine for the fall/holiday season…

 

Hopefully Wicked, Moana 2, and Venom deliver though.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's starting to feel like Wicked is going to be a smaller scale Beauty and the Beast '17/Barbie in that it's a female-driven tentpole with high interest among its target audience but with enough 4 quad appeal to help it break out with other demos. An opening over $100M doesn't seem that crazy if the stars align perfectly for it.

 

I will say that if both The Wild Robot and Transformers end up underperformers, it just goes to show how dicey animated sci-fi is at the box office after decades of movies that failed to launch. In retrospect, it's probably a miracle WALL-E made as much as it did.

Dune on film being as big as it has been so far is an even bigger miracle. Especially considering how dense the source material is.

24 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Honestly I think it’s just lack of interest in either film, not two films eating into each other.

 

Plus I know it was a while ago, but maybe the masses got their fill with Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 in the same summer.

This is sadly something we have to accept. People sometimes simply don't give a shit. No matter how good your work is, or how hard you try, people simply aren't interested. Not every story is going to be for everyone. And that's what makes us human.

 

I also think you're bringing up a very good point with the second paragraph. Families don't have the disposable income to spend on every animated movie that gets released. And so it makes sense for them to strategically save their money for the safe, warm and familiar names they know will deliver. And the next movie to fit that bill is Moana 2, which I'm increasingly thinking is sucking the air out of other animated releases inbetween Despicable Me 4 and it. Meanwhile, Transformers is a brand barely any kida today care about, and Wild Robot might as well be an original property. Spending hard-earned money on those is a big risk for families, while something like Moana 2 is an easy sell given how big the first one has become. It is what it is, and us proponents of these underdogs will have to accept that. 

 

All this is making me wonder how Sonic 3 plays out, given that it's set for just a month after Moana 2. Hopefully it'll be a good companion piece like Despicable Me 4 was to Inside Out 2 in a sense.

[Shawn Robbins]

TWR should still be good for 30-40. 1.95 Thu is a very good start for fall season with school and legs will follow.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I think for it to only hit mid-20s would require a historically bad IM for an animated movie without early access screenings. Not saying I couldn’t see it but that would be drastically weak.

 

that said, I do think there’s something to be said about Transformers and Wild Robot (hell, throw Beetlejuice in there too) cannibalizing each other. It’s been said before, but TFO genuinely had an awful release date.

 

I do think we have to prepare for similar cases happening to Moana/Wicked and Sonic/Mufasa, even if the impact of the holidays will ultimately lessen the blow. Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 feel like rare exceptions, but even then IO2 hit most of its earnings before DM4 dropped.

 

just…fuck, at least make it to 30m. Most Soul Crushing Run is gonna be a crowded enough field as is.

[Claire of Themyscira]

The Wild Robot needed an original track from Xtina to make a splash! But, I hope it can manage good walkups to reach $40M.

 

Paw Patrol lucked out last year with ha blessing.

 

 

Anyone see this? She GAGGED the world.