May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[RichWS]

It's high but I think it's going to play very well on Saturday.

[blackspider]

Nikki's current estimate is $70m. Some of us here think it will end up around $75m.

I am in that boat as well. Night business was unreal. We had to add like 5 extra shows beyond 10:30 pm to meet the demand. It was crazy.

[druv10]

That's a 14% increase on Saturday from Friday without midnights. That's higher than any of the previous Avengers films

But WOM for TA is as good as it was for TDK.

[spizzer]

FWIW, with 70M, that's still below IM2's Friday without midnight attendance.

[riczhang]

But WOM for TA is as good as it was for TDK.

It's better.

[spizzer]

But WOM for TA is as good as it was for TDK.

Yes, but WOM will not have such a drastic effect on performance on the OW alone, it takes time for it to kick in. Nor is the volume of business is large enough for a massive spillover effect. Remember, the nominal figure is high, but in terms of tickets sold, the Friday without midnights is still below IM2 with that 70M figure. Edited May 5, 2012 by spizzer

[Ariadne]

MTC has always had issues with 3D films. It makes sense that they would, because it's not a factor they'd be able to as effectively measure

Makes sense, so they've never tried to adjust their prediction for 3D?

I can't really remember MTC ever going much higher than 140 so I wasn't surprised by their number

That's strange, I didn't realise that.

[Cedarpoint1111]

I really hope this beats Saturday record.

[Chewy]

It's better.

I don't know about that. But both basically amount to everyone recommending it to everyone else.

[riczhang]

Yes, but WOM will not have such a drastic effect on performance on the OW alone, it takes time for it to kick in. Nor is the volume of business is large enough for a massive spillover effect. Remember, the nominal figure is high, but in terms of tickets sold, the Friday without midnights is still below IM2 with that 70M figure.

But spillover will happen with the Sunday drop.

[Noctis]

Oh, fuck, this might beat Potter now with $70m.

[redfirebird2008]

I am in that boat as well. Night business was unreal. We had to add like 5 extra shows beyond 10:30 pm to meet the demand. It was crazy.

Nothing quite like a big opener on Friday and Saturday in early May. People are so busy with work and school that the moviegoing has to be crammed into Friday night and all day Saturday for the most part.

[riczhang]

I don't know about that. But both basically amount to everyone recommending it to everyone else.

TDK wasn't quite as universally loved among my friends, and from staying behind in the theatre there was some more negative feedback for TDK than for TA.

[spizzer]

Makes sense, so they've never tried to adjust their prediction for 3D?

They have tried, but remember, it's a variable. Getting a gauge on anticipation and buzz is hard enough. Trying to gauge what % of the audience will see it in 3D vs 2D is even more difficult, especially when you considers that factors are sometimes outside even the audience's direct control here (ie 2D sellouts, # of 3D screens, etc.)

[Ariadne]

Yes, but WOM will not have such a drastic effect on performance on the OW alone, it takes time for it to kick in. Nor is the volume of business is large enough for a massive spillover effect. Remember, the nominal figure is high, but in terms of tickets sold, the Friday without midnights is still below IM2 with that 70M figure.

I find that shocking - surely that means the number is going to go up - all theatre reports point to much bigger attendance than IM2!

[redfirebird2008]

It's better.

A little early to say that, isn't it? How about we wait to see how the legs turn out first?

[spizzer]

But spillover will happen with the Sunday drop.

It will, but again, not to an extent where it ends up grossing 10M more than historic trends would indicate it should have. Spillover is effected by VOLUME of business, not total revenue. The VOLUME simply isn't anywhere near an all time level

[spizzer]

I find that shocking - surely that means the number is going to go up - all theatre reports point to much bigger attendance than IM2!

Precisely why I think it will go up.

[riczhang]

A little early to say that, isn't it? How about we wait to see how the legs turn out first?

I'm basing it on my friends, who do actually have a wide range of movie tastes, but they've all seen the movie, and they all raved, and raved, and raved about it.

[Fullbuster]

Great number It will beat HP:DH2 I feel it