baumer Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Baumer you have high hopes for TE. Is it tracking strongly?It doesn't matter. I have faith that this will open to 50 mill. I don't care what tracking has it at. There are a lot of people interested in this film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 (edited) I'm sure TE2 will open well above tracking. However I think it will be a close race between it and MM for #11. I could see it doing something like this: OW: $52m 2nd weekend: $22m (-58%) Labor day 4 day weekend: $12m (-45%) 8 day weekday cume: $32m Total: $118m So if it follows that trajectory it should just barely win. Edited August 15, 2012 by MovieMan89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 It doesn't matter. I have faith that this will open to 50 mill. I don't care what tracking has it at. There are a lot of people interested in this film.I think you're way off and it opens closer to Bourne. We shall see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Yeah I see it opening around 39-42M. MM>old farts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceroll Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I really don't like Chuck Norris so I hope TE2 disappoints. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I think it opens with 45m, but that won't be enough to get it to Top-11 by Labor Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I think it opens with 45m, but that won't be enough to get it to Top-11 by Labor Day.45 mill gives it very close to 110 mill by LD in my estimation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The best comparison here is Inglourious Basterds, which was released in the same exact weekend, and made $95m by LD off a $38m OW... and it had a sub-50% drop in its second weekend. 45 million on OW won't be enough to get TE2 above MM by Labor Day, and with 50 million it's not exactly a guarantee either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The best comparison here is Inglourious Basterds, which was released in the same exact weekend, and made $95m by LD off a $38m OW... and it had a sub-50% drop in its second weekend. 45 million on OW won't be enough to get TE2 above MM by Labor Day, and with 50 million it's not exactly a guarantee either.You guys are assuming its going to collpase in the second weekend. I see no reason why it will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceroll Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The first one was frontloaded enough already and this is a sequel. It will have a hard time getting over a 2.5 multiplier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Yeah, it needs at least 50m OW to have a shot to beat MM by labor day, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The first one was frontloaded enough already and this is a sequel. It will have a hard time getting over a 2.5 multiplier.The first one had a 2.9 multiplier. It was hardly frontloaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Here's how I see it playing out....I know I am obviously on the high side but....Friday: 21.5 mill (hoping for 1.5 in midnights)Sat: 18.3 (-15%)Sun: 14.7 (-20%)54.5 OWMon: 6.1 (-59%)Tue: 6.0Wed: 4.7 (-22%)Thur: 4.0 (-10%)Fri: 7.2Sat: 10.0 (+38%)Sun: 8.0 (-20%)-54% second weekendTotal after second weekend 100 mill. Easily enough to get to top ten after LD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Doubt it gets over 50m OW, but if it does, you can bet on at least a 60% drop second weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Doubt it gets over 50m OW, but if it does, you can bet on at least a 60% drop second weekend.I don't buy that it will drop 60%. No reason for it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Sequel to a surprise hit? Bad WOM? Big midnight gross? There are many reasons it could fall 60%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Sequel to a surprise hit? Bad WOM? Big midnight gross? There are many reasons it could fall 60%.Won't have bad WOM and it won't gross a lot at midnight. I've called around Toronto and it's not even playing at midnight here which pisses me off. So I don't think this makes more than 2 mill at the very most for midnights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 You guys are assuming its going to collpase in the second weekend. I see no reason why it will.It doesn't need to collapse. Like I said, Basterds dropped 49% in its 2nd weekend, also had terrific weekdays, and still only managed 2.5x multi by Labor Day. Expendables opens to 45 million, drops over 50% next weekend (and the first movie dropped 51%), and it's almost certainly out of Top 11 right then and there. In order for its chances to make it not to fly out the window immediately, it will need to open to $50m, or to $48-49m at the very least. That's possible, but not very likely, in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 It doesn't need to collapse. Like I said, Basterds dropped 49% in its 2nd weekend, also had terrific weekdays, and still only managed 2.5x multi by Labor Day. Expendables opens to 45 million, drops over 50% next weekend (and the first movie dropped 51%), and it's almost certainly out of Top 11 right then and there. In order for its chances to make it not to fly out the window immediately, it will need to open to $50m, or to $48-49m at the very least. That's possible, but not very likely, in my opinion.And that's why you didn't take it in the top 11. I did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 So it's officially settled now. Magic Mike will be #11 for the summer. Who saw that coming!? Did anyone have it in their top 12? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...