baumer's 2012 Summer Game: Domestic Top 12 Prediction Standings

[baumer]

Nope.....I don't think MM is in anyones top 11.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Damn it I should listen to my gayness. I could called Magic Mike.

[Jake Gittes]

Absolutely no one called MM. BTW, has something that ever happened before? I know 3 people picked Bridesmaids last year and someone ought to have picked ROTPOTA. What about Despicable Me and The Other Guys in 2010, The Hangover and The Proposal in 2009, and Mamma Mia in 2008? At least someone should have got them, but who knows.

[baumer]

The Hangover, Proposal, Despicable Me and Apes were all taken by a few players.

[MovieMan89]

I'm frankly shocked that some people actually had Ted in there. That seemed just as unlikely to make the top 12 as MM to me at the start of the summer.

[Jake Gittes]

I thought that, in the most realistically optimistic (lol) scenario, Ted would perform just like or a bit better than Horrible Bosses. I never considered anything above 125m for it.

[iceroll]

I had Ted but it definitely just squeaked in there for me. I was debating between a few comedy films (That's My Boy, The Watch, Ted) and finally settled on Ted, and I'm so glad I did.

[baumer]

I debated between ROA and MM in my top 12. I chose....poorly.

[Fake]

I had absolutely no idea about the last spot..... so I just winged it...... I had considered Ted for a minute but didn't even know MM existed.

[iceroll]

After the success of Twilight I should have known not to underestimate the power of horny women.

[Fake]

Projected Summer Top-111. Avengers - 618M2. TDKR - 430M3. TASM - 259M4. Brave - 231M5. Ted - 217M6. Madagascar 3 - 214M7. MIB3 - 179M 8. Ice Age 4 - 156M9. Snow White - 155M10. Prometheus - 127M11. Magic Mike - 113M- The Bourne Legacy - 95M

[Fake]

A question B......"For every film you call correctly in the top 12, in any order, you will get 15,000 points. For every film you call in the exact spot, you will get 25,000 points."Do we get 25,000 in addition to 15,000 for calling it in correct spot, or just 25,000 total?

[baumer]

A question B......"For every film you call correctly in the top 12, in any order, you will get 15,000 points. For every film you call in the exact spot, you will get 25,000 points."Do we get 25,000 in addition to 15,000 for calling it in correct spot, or just 25,000 total?

25,000.It's just a bonus for being accurate.

[Fake]

So my score with projected numbers:

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 465M 15 + 0 = 15

2. The Avengers - 430M 15 - 12 = 3

3. The Amazing Spider-Man - 285M 15 + 25 + 5 = 45

4. Brave - 235M 15 + 25 + 10 + 20 = 70

5. Men in Black 3 - 195M 15 + 10 = 25

6. Prometheus - 185M 15 - 5 = 10

7. Snow White & The Huntsman- 165M 15 + 10 = 25

8. Ice Age: Continental Drift- 160M 15 + 25 + 10 + 20 = 70

NO MORE JOE

9. Madagascar 3 - 140M 15 - 6 = 9

10. The Bourne Legacy - 132M -10 + 0 = -10

11. Rock of Ages - 110M -10 - 6 = -16

Total: 246k

Am I doing this right?

Edited August 20, 2012 by Fake

[baumer]

Yes, you are doing it right, give or take a few thousand points.But I don't think you are doing the point totals totally correctly. Why would you give yourself 0 on TDKR? You know you are going to be within at least 40K.EDIT.....I'm not sure what all the numbers are you have there. Let's just wait and see. I don't really have time right now to go over it all. I'll take a look at it tonight and let you know.

Edited August 20, 2012 by Expendable baumer

[baumer]

Here's the original post: Note, when it says you get a 20,000 point or 25,000 bonus, that is not on top of the 10,000 you already get, it just means you get a total of 20 or 25,000.POINT SYSTEM: The point system will be very similar to last year, but with a few changes. You will rewarded even more for accuracy.For every film you call correctly in the top 12, in any order, you will get 15,000 points. For every film you call in the exact spot, you will get 25,000 points. So you must think this out thoroughly. You will also lose 10,000 points for every film in the top 12 that you call incorrectly. So, for example, if say The Dark Knight Returns will be in the top 12 twelve, and it misses the top 12, you will lose 10000 points PLUS whatever you miss the gross by.And one more caveat to this is the double whammy rule. If you call a film to hit the top 12 and it misses, you will lose points for missing the top 12 and you will lose points if the gross misses by more than the 40 million allotted to you. If however you call a film incorrectly in the top 12 but you are within the 40 million, YOU WILL NOT GET CREDIT FOR THOSE POINTS. This is a rule that I have always wanted to be in the game but through unclear wording, it never has been. That changes this year. This is a game of accuracy and as such your rewards are high as is your punishment.Back to the scoring.If you are able to call the top three positions right, in order, regardless of the gross, you will get a 75,000 point bonus.If you are able to call the top four positions right, in order, regardless of the gross, you will get a 100,000 point bonus.If you can call the top five positions right, in order, regardless of gross, you will get a 250,000 point bonus.If you are a genius and can call all 12 right, in order, regardless of gross, you will get a 750,000 point bonus and basically win the game.As a side note, in the FOUR previous years in this game, no one has called the top five correct yet.OTHER ADD ONS:Call SPOTS 3-5 correct, regardless of order, and receive a 150,000 point bonus.Call 6 of the 12 films correctly, regardless of the order, and receive a 150,000 point bonus.Call 9 of the top 12 correct, regardless of order, receive a 300,000 point bonus.Call all 12 correct, regardless of order, and you get a 500,000 point bonus.This does not eliminate the bonus points originally mentioned, it will just add to them. So for example, if you happen to call the top five positions correctly, you will get the 250K bonus for having the top 5 in any order, PLUS YOU WILL GET THE 150k BONUS FOR HAVING POSITIONS 3-5 IN ORDER.So even if you are not doing so well with the bonus points, a huuuuuuge premium is put on calling the films in the right order, so do your research.For the gross that you predict, for every film that you call within 20 mill, you will get 10,000 points. If you call it within 30 mill, you get 5000 bonus points. If you miss the films gross by 30.01-40 mill you will not lose any points. From 40.01 to 60 mill you lose 5000 points. For every 20 mill you miss after the first 60 mill, you will lose 1000 points per 20 mill. Even if you miss the gross by 61 mill, that extra 1 mill will cause you to lose a full 1000 points.For even more of an accuracy bonus, if you can call any film within 5 million of the actual gross, you will receive a bonus of 20,000. If you can call the gross within 2 million, you get a bonus of 25,000.Predicting the top 12 and their gross is very, very difficult, especially since you have to have this in before May 2nd. ONCE YOUR PREDICTIONS ARE IN, YOU CANNOT CHANGE THEM AFTER May 2nd.

[baumer]

1. The Avengers: 460.1 25,0002. The Dark Knight Rises: 459.5 25,0003. Brave: 233.9 15,0004. Spiderman Rebooted: 194.9 15,0005. Men In Black 3: 185 15,000No more Joe6. Madagascar 3: 170 25,0007. Snow White: 167.4 15,0008. Ice Age: 155 25,0009. The Expendables 2: 135.5 -10,00010. Rock of Ages: 131.1 -10,00011. Prometheus: 130.1 15,000155 for the slots, plus 300,000 bonus for having 9 of 11 correct. You would get this bonus too Fake.

Edited August 20, 2012 by Expendable baumer

[Fake]

But I don't think you are doing the point totals totally correctly. Why would you give yourself 0 on TDKR? You know you are going to be within at least 40K.

30-40m off is 0 points, no?

[baumer]

30-40m off is 0 points, no?

Yes, you are correct. I thought perhaps it would have more by the end of the game, but your calculation is correct.

[Fake]

Actually, my points should be:

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 465M 15 + 0 = 15

2. The Avengers - 430M 15 - 12 = 3

3. The Amazing Spider-Man - 285M 25 + 5 = 30

4. Brave - 235M 25 + 10 + 20 = 55

5. Men in Black 3 - 195M 15 + 10 = 25

6. Prometheus - 185M 15 - 5 = 10

7. Snow White & The Huntsman- 165M 15 + 10 = 25

8. Ice Age: Continental Drift- 160M 25 + 10 + 20 = 55

NO MORE JOE

9. Madagascar 3 - 140M 15 - 6 = 9

10. The Bourne Legacy - 132M -10 + 0 = -10

11. Rock of Ages - 110M -10 - 6 = -16

Total: 201k + 300k bonus

Points: Slots points

Points: Accuracy points

Points: Extra accuracy bonus (20k for getting within 5 mill, 25k for within 2 mill)

Your points:

1. The Avengers: 460.1 25 - 10 = 15

2. The Dark Knight Rises: 459.5 25 + 5 = 30

3. Brave: 233.9 15 + 10 + 20 = 45

4. Spiderman Rebooted: 194.9 15 - 6 = 9

5. Men In Black 3: 185 15 + 10 = 25

No more Joe

6. Madagascar 3: 170 25 - 5 = 20

7. Snow White: 167.4 15 + 10 = 25

8. Ice Age: 155 25 + 10 + 25 = 60

9. The Expendables 2: 135.5 -10 - 6 = -16

10. Rock of Ages: 131.1 -10 - 7 = -17

11. Prometheus: 130.1 15 + 10 + 20 = 45

Total: 241k + 300k bonus