baumer's 2012 Summer Game: Domestic Top 12 Prediction Standings

[baumer]

Baumer you have high hopes for TE. Is it tracking strongly?

It doesn't matter. I have faith that this will open to 50 mill. I don't care what tracking has it at. There are a lot of people interested in this film.

[MovieMan89]

I'm sure TE2 will open well above tracking. However I think it will be a close race between it and MM for #11. I could see it doing something like this:

OW: $52m

2nd weekend: $22m (-58%)

Labor day 4 day weekend: $12m (-45%)

8 day weekday cume: $32m

Total: $118m

So if it follows that trajectory it should just barely win.

Edited August 15, 2012 by MovieMan89

[rockNrollaDIM]

It doesn't matter. I have faith that this will open to 50 mill. I don't care what tracking has it at. There are a lot of people interested in this film.

I think you're way off and it opens closer to Bourne. We shall see!

[Cedarpoint1111]

Yeah I see it opening around 39-42M. MM>old farts

[iceroll]

I really don't like Chuck Norris so I hope TE2 disappoints.

[Fake]

I think it opens with 45m, but that won't be enough to get it to Top-11 by Labor Day.

[baumer]

I think it opens with 45m, but that won't be enough to get it to Top-11 by Labor Day.

45 mill gives it very close to 110 mill by LD in my estimation.

[Jake Gittes]

The best comparison here is Inglourious Basterds, which was released in the same exact weekend, and made $95m by LD off a $38m OW... and it had a sub-50% drop in its second weekend. 45 million on OW won't be enough to get TE2 above MM by Labor Day, and with 50 million it's not exactly a guarantee either.

[baumer]

The best comparison here is Inglourious Basterds, which was released in the same exact weekend, and made $95m by LD off a $38m OW... and it had a sub-50% drop in its second weekend. 45 million on OW won't be enough to get TE2 above MM by Labor Day, and with 50 million it's not exactly a guarantee either.

You guys are assuming its going to collpase in the second weekend. I see no reason why it will.

[iceroll]

The first one was frontloaded enough already and this is a sequel. It will have a hard time getting over a 2.5 multiplier.

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, it needs at least 50m OW to have a shot to beat MM by labor day,

[baumer]

The first one was frontloaded enough already and this is a sequel. It will have a hard time getting over a 2.5 multiplier.

The first one had a 2.9 multiplier. It was hardly frontloaded.

[baumer]

Here's how I see it playing out....I know I am obviously on the high side but....Friday: 21.5 mill (hoping for 1.5 in midnights)Sat: 18.3 (-15%)Sun: 14.7 (-20%)54.5 OWMon: 6.1 (-59%)Tue: 6.0Wed: 4.7 (-22%)Thur: 4.0 (-10%)Fri: 7.2Sat: 10.0 (+38%)Sun: 8.0 (-20%)-54% second weekendTotal after second weekend 100 mill. Easily enough to get to top ten after LD.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Doubt it gets over 50m OW, but if it does, you can bet on at least a 60% drop second weekend.

[baumer]

Doubt it gets over 50m OW, but if it does, you can bet on at least a 60% drop second weekend.

I don't buy that it will drop 60%. No reason for it too.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Sequel to a surprise hit? Bad WOM? Big midnight gross? There are many reasons it could fall 60%.

[baumer]

Sequel to a surprise hit? Bad WOM? Big midnight gross? There are many reasons it could fall 60%.

Won't have bad WOM and it won't gross a lot at midnight. I've called around Toronto and it's not even playing at midnight here which pisses me off. So I don't think this makes more than 2 mill at the very most for midnights.

[Jake Gittes]

You guys are assuming its going to collpase in the second weekend. I see no reason why it will.

It doesn't need to collapse. Like I said, Basterds dropped 49% in its 2nd weekend, also had terrific weekdays, and still only managed 2.5x multi by Labor Day. Expendables opens to 45 million, drops over 50% next weekend (and the first movie dropped 51%), and it's almost certainly out of Top 11 right then and there. In order for its chances to make it not to fly out the window immediately, it will need to open to $50m, or to $48-49m at the very least. That's possible, but not very likely, in my opinion.

[baumer]

It doesn't need to collapse. Like I said, Basterds dropped 49% in its 2nd weekend, also had terrific weekdays, and still only managed 2.5x multi by Labor Day. Expendables opens to 45 million, drops over 50% next weekend (and the first movie dropped 51%), and it's almost certainly out of Top 11 right then and there. In order for its chances to make it not to fly out the window immediately, it will need to open to $50m, or to $48-49m at the very least. That's possible, but not very likely, in my opinion.

And that's why you didn't take it in the top 11. I did.

[MovieMan89]

So it's officially settled now. Magic Mike will be #11 for the summer. Who saw that coming!? Did anyone have it in their top 12?