baumer's 2012 Summer Game: Domestic Top 12 Prediction Standings

[rockNrollaDIM]

Copied from/using Infamous projections:

[My predictions in brackets]

The Avengers: $623m [$385m]

Dark Shadows: $79m [N/A]

Battleship: $65m [N/A]

Men in Black 3: $170m [$152m]

Snow White: $147m [$190m]

Prometheus: $146m [$163m]

Madagascar 3: $175m [$175m]

So according to the rule above, here is where I'm at:

The Avengers: -$238m < -14,000 points!

Men in Black 3: -$18m < 10,000 points!

Snow White: -$43m < -5,000 points!

Prometheus: -$17m < 10,000 points!

Madagascar 3: -$0m (exact) < 25,000 points!

So, from my predictions so far with Infamous' projections, I'm at..

+26,000 points

Go MADAGASCAR!!! But not too far

[baumer]

That's good so far adim.....really nice.But don't forget you get points for calling the film in the top 12 and others will lose points for calling a film that is not in the top 12....so there are a lot more points to be made and lost.

[rockNrollaDIM]

That's good so far adim.....really nice.But don't forget you get points for calling the film in the top 12 and others will lose points for calling a film that is not in the top 12....so there are a lot more points to be made and lost.

True... so I will also benefit from snubbing Battleship/Dark Shadows, so far, plus the positioning that all these films end up in- tons of variables.It's nice to see the projected points so far though, but the final order of the top 12 will play a huge part.

[Fake]

Any chance MIB3 still finishes at #5?

[Jake Gittes]

Any chance MIB3 still finishes at #5?

Madagascar 3 would need to have horrible legs and Ice Age would need to go under $165m.

[Fake]

Madagascar 3 would need to have horrible legs and Ice Age would need to go under $165m.

I think MIB3 could hold well the next couple of weeks and finish over 170m.And there are three big movies coming up which appeal to kids over the next few weeks, so Mad3 is bound to have some harsh drops and there is a chance it might finish below that.IA4 can also finish under 170M.

[Jake Gittes]

Well any chance there is is very slim. Mad3 has opened too well and will have made too much money prior to June 22 to fail to achieve $170+m after Brave opens. In the worst case scenario it will drop around 60% in its third weekend, and even then it won't just fall off the face of the Earth. Summer weekdays and lack of competition on, for example, June 29 will keep it from disappearing for a while. TASM won't destroy its run either.

Edited June 14, 2012 by Jake Gittes

[Fake]

well let's see what happens.... if TASM and Brave do finish at #3 and #4 respectively then MIB's position will decide the game for me.

[Fake]

Worldwide Top 5 Standings

MIB 3 (5)

ShawnMR - $770M

Neo - $755M

baumer - $700M

Fake - $640M

Tower - $600M

CURRENT TOTAL - $488.00M

Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (17)

KDS - $806M

Junkshop36 - $738M

Goffe Rises - $735M

Goffe Rises - $710M

Iceroll Rises - $710M

Accused Arachnid - $700M

rockNrollaDIM - $700M

Crusader - $700M

Jake Gittes - $680.1M

The Dark Zombie Rises - $680M

Katyperry - $680M

Hallowed Prince - $677M

CEDAR - $660M

JohnnY - $650M

Gopher - $630M

Brand New Rises - $610M

laguy03 - $610M

CURRENT TOTAL - $135.82M

Pretty surprising that so many went for Mad 3 and so few went for MIB3.

MIB3 will be the #5 movie unless Brave really breaks out.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Pretty surprising that so many went for Mad 3 and so few went for MIB3.MIB3 will be the #5 movie unless Brave really breaks out.

You think MAD will be #6?

[Fake]

You think MAD will be #6?

#6 or #7(after Brave).For total gross, Mad3 would very likely have beat both MIB3 and Brave, but for Summer Game purposes, it will not. Australia, Germany, UK etc. are opening after the game ends and rest of the European markets are opening in August. So over 30% of Mad3's OS gross will come after the Game.http://www.madagascarinternational.com/intl/releasedates/release-dates.html

[Cedarpoint1111]

Pixar hardly ever makes more OS than Dreamworks.

[Fake]

Baumer has, without any doubt, the best Top-11 and will most likely win this game.He should be within 5M for Prometheus too, it seems.

[iceroll]

Wow he's doing really good with the grosses but he needs TE2 and ROA to make it. But if Ted/That's My Boy/The Watch/Bourne Legacy make it to the top 11 instead he could lose a lot of points though.

[HeyItsMoses]

Bourne Legacy will be in the top 11.I think The Watch is this summers sleeper. Tropic Thunder numbers at the very least.

[baumer]

Thanks Fake. But there is so much that can happen still. There are a lot of wildcards left.I feel very confident that TE2 will make the top 11 but anything can happen.I don't think Bourne gets there. I think this is a transitional film for the franchise.

[Ariadne]

Doesn't look like TMB or ROA will make the top 11. Good for my summer game!

[Jake Gittes]

ROA is my GL of this year. I put it in the last spot and it's not going to make it even there.I wonder what's going to be #11 now - Ted? Watch? Campaign? Expendables? Ted probably has the most chance, Watch and Campaign don't look like $100m grossers (and they are coming out pretty late) and TE2 would need a monster opening, like $45m at the very least. But I'm not Baumer so I'm not predicting that kind of numbers for it.

[HeyItsMoses]

Whoever has TMB or ROA in their Top 11....is FUCKED!Won't even hit $50m, lmao.

[Cedarpoint1111]

I think The Watch will make it to top 11. I am so pissed I didn't put it in. Either way though, it was going in my #12 spot which is pointless now anyway.