baumer's 2012 Summer Game: Domestic Top 12 Prediction Standings

[BK007]

Such cocky asses your wild cards could fuck up even worse...

[baumer]

Such cocky asses your wild cards could fuck up even worse...

I don't get what this means?

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Damn, Dexter's prediction is epic and probably he'll end up in the red zone as well.

I did have at 200/600 but changed before the deadline. I knew this going to blowup but nobody believed me. I am still happy that I called the best.

[HeyItsMoses]

We screwed with TA, but it doesn't really matter as nobody will get points. DS however really messed up a lot of players top 12 already. Battleship is the next one to flop hopefully. I left both DS and Battleship out of my top 12.

I got Battleship at #12 with $144. No matter how bad it's WOM is, any opening above $40m will still guarantee $100m. Look at TF2, it has an mp of 3.7, and people hated it (i thought it was pretty good). With this movie having a same feel to it, but looking much more serious, it shouldn't have a hard time with a 3.0 mp, and its gonna end up in the Top 12.What I worry, is that I think I might've underestimated Snow White, the tv spots makes it look really good; but I hate that Kristen bitch, hopefully she's asleep the entire time, lol.

[Jake Gittes]

TF2 was a Wednesday release. Take away $91m it made in its first two days, its total gross is $311m. Which would result in a 2.85 multiplier. And that movie was released in late June, not mid-May.

[HeyItsMoses]

Opens with $45m and give it a 2.7 multiplier, that's $121m. I got it at $144m, and yeah, it's entering the Top 12.

[BK007]

I don't get what this means?

Was a joke, haha I meant that people seem so sure that Dark Shadows and Battleship are already out of contention, which certainly looks likely, but whatever people decided to replace them with, Rock of Ages, for example, may do even worse, so while they may not hit the overpredicted numbers that required them to enter people's top 12's they could make it by being the least disappointing performers out of a whole host of other disappointing and dispiriting runs.

[baumer]

Was a joke, haha I meant that people seem so sure that Dark Shadows and Battleship are already out of contention, which certainly looks likely, but whatever people decided to replace them with, Rock of Ages, for example, may do even worse, so while they may not hit the overpredicted numbers that required them to enter people's top 12's they could make it by being the least disappointing performers out of a whole host of other disappointing and dispiriting runs.

If everyone knew everything, there'd be no point in playing the game. Right now I'm pretty sure DS doesn't make the top 12. But Battleship could and for all we know it could make 200-300-400 mill. It could make 50 mill too. No one knows. There's always a few films every year that really come out of nowhere (Bridesmaids, Rise of Planet of the Apes, The Proposal, Smurfs, Grown Ups, The Hangover) to do well and there are always films that disappoint (T-4, Angels and Demons, Super 8, Cowboys and Aliens to name a few). So this year is wide open. We all know TA, TDKR, Brave Spidey and MIB are locked to hit the top 12. But after that, there are a lot of wildcards.....Prometheus, Expendables Rock of Ages and many others. So this game has just begun. And no one knows anything at this point.

[kayumanggi]

A lot of people has DARK SHADOWS on their top 12.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

A lot of people has DARK SHADOWS on their top 12.

a lot people did not predict above 530m for Avengers

which is this by the way I copied your smiley?

[kayumanggi]

Is that a question?

[townzy89]

I got Battleship at #12 with $144. No matter how bad it's WOM is, any opening above $40m will still guarantee $100m. Look at TF2, it has an mp of 3.7, and people hated it (i thought it was pretty good). With this movie having a same feel to it, but looking much more serious, it shouldn't have a hard time with a 3.0 mp, and its gonna end up in the Top 12.What I worry, is that I think I might've underestimated Snow White, the tv spots makes it look really good; but I hate that Kristen bitch, hopefully she's asleep the entire time, lol.

You were saying.....

[baumer]

Yep, BS is not making the top 12.

[JJ-8]

And while i have DS in my top 12, battleship missed out for me Weekend coming is my first real test... MIB 3 - 253m.... (looking for a 90m+ 4 Day to get there though)

[rockNrollaDIM]

Very happy I passed on DS and BS in the top 12... Come onnnnn Rock of Ages!!

[HeyItsMoses]

You were saying.....

I was still right. I said anything above $40m ow will guarantee $100m. I didn't say that it will gross $100m no matter what.Technically I'm still right..

[The Dark Alfred]

RoA can't flop this bad. And it will have definitely better legs than BS.

[Cedarpoint1111]

I don't see Rock of Ages making more than 100m. I left it out so I hope I am right.

[AASixteen16]

It's not looking good for me so far. Gonna be a good $150M-$200M off Avengers (O.o) and Dark Shadows is topping out around $80M AND will not make the the top 12. Only thing good is that I didn't put BS into my Top 12, other than that, my predictions suck ass.

[Ariadne]

So glad I didn't have Dark Shadows or Battleship in my top 12. But I took a risk and put The Dictator as my wildcard - but I'm pretty sure it'll end up grossing more than Battleship anyway even if it doesn't reach 100m!