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[Corpse]

Weekend Estimates (08/09-10)

 

 

01 (--) ¥812 million ($8.0 million), 0, ¥1.01 billion ($9.9 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho) DEBUT

02 (--) ¥426 million ($4.2 million), 0, ¥560 million ($5.4 million), Transformers: Age of Extinction (Paramount) DEBUT

03 (01) ¥402 million ($4.0 million), -32%, ¥1.80 billion ($17.6 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Warner Bros.) Week 2

04 (03) ¥185 million ($1.8 million), -20%, ¥5.20 billion ($50.9 million), Maleficent (Disney) Week 6

05 (02) ¥181 million ($1.7 million), -47%, ¥2.05 billion ($20.1 million), Godzilla (Toho) Week 3

06 (04) ¥172 million ($1.6 million), -06%, ¥2.05 billion ($20.1 million), Memories of Marnie (Toho) Week 4

07 (05) ¥133 million ($1.3 million), -22%, ¥1.90 billion ($18.5 million), Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Toho) Week 4

08 (--) ¥60 million ($0.5 million), 0, ¥60 million ($0.5 million), Space Brothers 0 (Warner Bros.) DEBUT

09 (06) ¥46 million ($0.4 million), -31%, ¥640 million ($6.2 million), Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Toei) Week 4

10 (07) ¥33 million ($0.3 million), -42%, ¥380 million ($3.6 million), Eight Ranger 2 (Toho) Week 3

 

>Stand By Me, Doraemon will have the biggest opening weekend of the year if this holds, and potentially the biggest 3-day total since The Wind Rises, too.  It's also by far the biggest debut for a Doraemon film.  

 

An opening of this caliber before Obon Week is huge, and will result in a total no less than ¥5 billion ($50 million), but ¥6-7 billion ($60-70 million) would be more likely.  

 

>Transformers: Age of Extinction looks to have debuted with comparable numbers as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 earlier this year.  And both films opened before a major holiday week (Golden Week/Obon), too, so they'll be very easy to compare week-to-week.  The Amazing Spider-Man 2 finished with ¥3.10 billion ($30.3 million).  

 

If Transformers: Age of Extinction follows The Amazing Spider-Man 2's run and reaches ¥3 billion, it'll be the 3rd highest-grossing film in the series behind Transformers and Transformers: Dark of the Moon.  

 

>Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc held up really well against big new competition, making its path to ¥4 billion ($40 million) a lot easier here on out.  

 

>Memories of Marnie barely saw any drop this weekend and is likely going to have very long legs.  Exceeding ¥4 billion ($40 million) shouldn't be too difficult now, and depending on how badly audiences want to see Studio Ghibli's last theatrical release for a long while, it could go a bit higher still.

Edited August 10, 2014 by Corpse

[Ajbg]

Weekend Estimates (08/09-10)

 

 

01 (--) ¥812 million ($8.0 million), 0, ¥1.01 billion ($9.9 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho) DEBUT

02 (--) ¥426 million ($4.2 million), 0, ¥560 million ($5.4 million), Transformers: Age of Extinction (Paramount) DEBUT

03 (01) ¥402 million ($4.0 million), -32%, ¥1.80 billion ($17.6 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Warner Bros.) Week 2

04 (03) ¥185 million ($1.8 million), -20%, ¥5.20 billion ($50.9 million), Maleficent (Disney) Week 6

05 (02) ¥181 million ($1.7 million), -47%, ¥2.05 billion ($20.1 million), Godzilla (Toho) Week 3

06 (04) ¥172 million ($1.6 million), -06%, ¥2.05 billion ($20.1 million), Memories of Marnie (Toho) Week 4

07 (05) ¥133 million ($1.3 million), -22%, ¥1.90 billion ($18.5 million), Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Toho) Week 4

08 (--) ¥60 million ($0.5 million), 0, ¥60 million ($0.5 million), Space Brothers 0 (Warner Bros.) DEBUT

09 (06) ¥46 million ($0.4 million), -31%, ¥640 million ($6.2 million), Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Toei) Week 4

10 (07) ¥33 million ($0.3 million), -42%, ¥380 million ($3.6 million), Eight Ranger 2 (Toho) Week 3

 

>Stand By Me, Doraemon will have the biggest opening weekend of the year if this holds, and potentially the biggest 3-day total since The Wind Rises, too.  It's also by far the biggest debut for a Doraemon film.  

 

An opening of this caliber before Obon Week is huge, and will result in a total no less than ¥5 billion ($50 million), but ¥6-7 billion ($60-70 million) would be more likely.  

 

>Transformers: Age of Extinction looks to have debuted with comparable numbers as The Amazing Spider-Man 2 earlier this year.  And both films opened before a major holiday week (Golden Week/Obon), too, so they'll be very easy to compare week-to-week.  The Amazing Spider-Man 2 finished with ¥3.10 billion ($30.3 million).  

 

If Transformers: Age of Extinction follows The Amazing Spider-Man 2's run and reaches ¥3 billion, it'll be the 3rd highest-grossing film in the series behind Transformers and Transformers: Dark of the Moon.  

 

>Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc held up really well against big new competition, making its path to ¥4 billion ($40 million) a lot easier here on out.  

 

>Memories of Marnie barely saw any drop this weekend and is likely going to have very long legs.  Exceeding ¥4 billion ($40 million) shouldn't be too difficult now, and depending on how badly audiences want to see Studio Ghibli's last theatrical release for a long while, it could go a bit higher still.

Is Maleficent going to 60+?

[Corpse]

Of course.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Good debut for TF4.

Edited August 10, 2014 by Raphael Potter

[RexTheMan14]

How much is Godzilla expected to earn in its run? $30-$40 million?

[Bishop54]

Ugh, Godzilla with a less than stellar weekend.

[superstancer]

Good debut for TF4! What is the total of PR there?

$14.5M 

[Corpse]

Good debut for TF4! What is the total of PR there?

It earned ¥1.55 billion ($16.1 million) with 1.21 million admissions.

[Corpse]

How much is Godzilla expected to earn in its run? $30-$40 million?

Yeah, closer to $30 million than $40 million, though.  Doraemon/Transformers hit it pretty hard.  

[Mockingjay Raphael]

$14.5M

Just 14.5M? Glad that T4 will make more. Thanks!

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Yeah, closer to $30 million than $40 million, though. Doraemon/Transformers hit it pretty hard.

This is pretty weak for Godzilla, right? This is so popular there.. I was expecting big numbers in both Japan & China. :/

[Corpse]

This is pretty weak for Godzilla, right? This is so popular there.. I was expecting big numbers in both Japan & China. :/

It's a common misconception that Godzilla is really popular in Japan and would do blockbuster numbers.  Godzilla, and the franchise, peaked nearly 50 years ago.  And while some of the 90s films did alright (the same or a little better than the current film will do), they weren't blockbuster hits.

 

The new film is doing just fine, if not better than some expectations even. 

 

Like, you wouldn't imagine a Mickey Mouse movie or some other old character revival film to do $300 million in the US.  Similar situation with Godzilla in Japan.  

Edited August 10, 2014 by Corpse

[Mockingjay Raphael]

It's a common misconception that Godzilla is really popular in Japan and would do blockbuster numbers. Godzilla, and the franchise, peaked nearly 50 years ago. And while some of the 90s films did alright (the same or a little better than the current film will do), they weren't blockbuster hits.The new film is doing just fine, if not better than some expectations even. Like, you wouldn't imagine a Mickey Mouse movie or some other old character revival film to do $300 million in the US. Similar situation with Godzilla in Japan.

I understand now, thanks!

[Corpse]

Biggest August Opening Weekends (1998-)

 

01. ¥812.0 million ($8.0 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014) *estimate*

02. ¥805.0 million ($6.7 million) - Jurassic Park III (2001) 

03. ¥766.3 million ($7.1 million) - The Mummy 3: The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (2008)

04. ¥748.0 million ($6.2 million) - Planet of the Apes (2001)

05. ¥644.5 million ($5.7 million) - The Suspect: Muroi Shinji (2005) 

06. ¥631.4 million ($5.3 million) - Transformers (2007)

07. ¥625.6 million ($5.8 million) - 20th Century Boys (2008)

08. ¥601.3 million ($5.1 million) - Ocean's Thirteen (2007)

09. ¥592.2 million ($5.8 million) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (2014)

10. ¥545.9 million ($4.5 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)

11. ¥500.9 million ($6.4 million) - The Avengers (2012)

12. ¥477.5 million ($5.0 million) - Kamen Rider Decade: All Riders vs. Dai-Shocker (2009)

13. ¥426.0 million ($4.2 million) - Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014) *estimate*

14. ¥399.5 million ($5.1 million) - Rurouni Kenshin (2012)

15. ¥399.2 million ($4.6 million) - Flowering Dogwood (2010)

 

If Stand By Me, Doraemon's weekend estimate holds, then it just earned the biggest opening weekend for the month of August (since 1998).  

 

And August 2014 has been really strong.  With Stand By Me, Doraemon and Transformers 4 (even if it had the worst opening weekend in the franchise...) debuting this weekend, August 2014 has now produced 3 films in the Top 15 with Rurouni Kenshin 2 making it last week.  

Edited August 10, 2014 by Corpse

[Godzilla]

Can Dawn of the Apes do $50M+ in Japan? Rise did a nice $30M.

[Corpse]

Rise was also released in 2011 with one of the most favorable exchange rates ever.

 

I do think Dawn will do well, though, and could reach 3 billion ($30 million).  That's not an increase in USD, but in Yen and admissions it'll be close to a 25% increase.  It won't be increasing 107% in yen which is needed to reach $50 million.  

[LABAS]

Rise was also released in 2011 with one of the most favorable exchange rates ever.

 

I do think Dawn will do well, though, and could reach 3 billion ($30 million).  That's not an increase in USD, but in Yen and admissions it'll be close to a 25% increase.  It won't be increasing 107% in yen which is needed to reach $50 million.  

Corpse , according to your estimate, what is the rough total adm of Frozen ?  19.94 m ?

[Corpse]

Yeah, that should be the updated total.  

[Corpse]

So it looks like Stand By Me, Doraemon may be heading toward a Monday that's nearly as big as Saturday or even Sunday.

 

It could be very close to or even above 3 billion ($30 million) by Sunday at this pace thanks to Obon Week (dailies will continue to get even stronger), and while I don't think it'll get there, it could be a contender for 10 billion ($100 million). *mind blown*  

[KushAboveAll]

So it looks like Stand By Me, Doraemon may be heading toward a Monday that's nearly as big as Saturday or even Sunday.It could be very close to or even above 3 billion ($30 million) by Sunday at this pace thanks to Obon Week (dailies will continue to get even stronger), and while I don't think it'll get there, it could be a contender for 10 billion ($100 million). *mind blown*

Frozen V2?