JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Corpse]

So it looks like Stand By Me, Doraemon is going to be a huge hit.  It's outselling Transformers 4 so far this morning by almost 3:1, maybe more since it'll be huge at Aeon cinemas.  

[Cynosure]

A 1 billion yen opening weekend perhaps ?

 

Why are they releasing on a friday btw ?

Edited August 8, 2014 by Cynosure

[Corpse]

It won't open that high.  

 

They're releasing it on Friday so they can have another day of Summer vacation and Obon begins this weekend.  

[Cynosure]

I see, thanks for that.

 

Doraemon's friday at Toho was almost as big as Rurouni Kenshin's saturday.

[rockNrollaDIM]

It won't open that high.  

 

They're releasing it on Friday so they can have another day of Summer vacation and Obon begins this weekend.  

 

Is Obon the big busy period for movie-going? So will this weekend see epic holds?

[KushAboveAll]

Only in japan you can see the phrase "Doraemon smash Transformers"

[Corpse]

Is Obon the big busy period for movie-going? So will this weekend see epic holds?

This weekend is a little too early to see much of an Obon effect I think.  The busiest days are usually the 10th-16th every year, so Monday through Friday is where the real money will be made this time, and we might see some increases next weekend.  

[Corpse]

I see, thanks for that.

 

Doraemon's friday at Toho was almost as big as Rurouni Kenshin's saturday.

 

Yeah, it came in even higher than I was expecting.  Doraemon usually dies in the evening/night, but this one played well during those times.  

 

I know it's summer vacation now, but even still, its Friday looks abnormally huge for such a young skewing franchise (Pokemon for example, which is released every year during this time, never plays that strong in the evening).

 

 I'm really interested to see what happens over the weekend.  

Edited August 8, 2014 by Corpse

[Corpse]

Weekend Forecast (08/09-10)

 

 

01 (--) ¥560 million ($5.4 million), 0, ¥750 million ($7.3 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho) NEW

02 (--) ¥450 million ($4.3 million), 0, ¥590 million ($5.7 million), Transformers: Age of Extinction (Paramount) NEW

03 (01) ¥379 million ($3.7 million), -36%, ¥1.75 billion ($17.1 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Warner Bros.) Week 2

04 (02) ¥220 million ($2.1 million), -36%, ¥2.10 billion ($20.5 million), Godzilla (Toho) Week 3

05 (04) ¥162 million ($1.5 million), -12%, ¥2.05 billion ($20.1 million), Memories of Marnie (Toho) Week 4

06 (03) ¥151 million ($1.4 million), -35%, ¥5.20 billion ($50.9 million), Maleficent (Disney) Week 6

07 (05) ¥126 million ($1.2 million), -26%, ¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million), Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Toho) Week 4

[highlight=yellow]08 (--) ¥120 million ($1.1 million), 0, ¥120 million ($1.1 million), Space Brothers 0 (Warner Bros.) NEW[/highlight]

09 (06) ¥44 million ($0.4 million), -34%, ¥630 million ($6.1 million), Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Toei) Week 4

10 (07) ¥36 million ($0.3 million), -37%, ¥390 million ($3.7 million), Eight Ranger 2 (Toho) Week 3

 

There's a typhoon hitting Japan this weekend so the drops may end up slightly higher, but morning ticket sales look fine to me.  And unless it's a huge storm that effects central Japan (70/80% of the box-office comes from here), very, very few storms ever affect the box-office really.

 

>Stand By Me, Doraemon beat Transformers: Age of Extinction yesterday by approx. 40%(!), so it's very likely to go on to win the weekend, too.  It's currently outpacing Transformers by about 2:1 today.  And although Transformers will narrow the gap in the evening/night; this is the first 3D Doraemon film in the franchise, and it appears to be bringing in more than just kids/families judging by yesterday's evening/night business.  

 

And it helps to have acclaimed upcoming director Yamazaki Takashi (Always, The Eternal Zero) directing the film, too.

 

[Cynosure]

Hopefully 'Transformers' does even less than your forecast.

 

That seems a bit low for Doraemon. I was expecting a franchise record for the opening. Guess the friday release obviously made that impossible.

Edited August 9, 2014 by Cynosure

[Corpse]

It'll most likely be the biggest first 3 days for a Doraemon film at the very least.  I'm not sure how the weather is going to really impact the box-office either.  I know some parts are really getting hammered, so the weekend might be a little deflated due to that.

 

The typhoon may also be one reason that Doraemon was so big on Friday.  A lot of people going then to see it before the storm hit today.  

[Quigley]

Screendaily has a very high overseas total for Maleficent until wednesday (497 million). It had 492,5 million sunday with a 3.3 million weekend total, 2.2 million coming from Japan.The 497 million is only possible with wonderful weekdays numbers from Japan this week, almost 4 million in 3 days.Seems impossible, and probably screendaily number is incorrect. Or Disney had a wrong weekend total.

 

Your argument is plausible. The weekday numbers are indeed too high. No holidays during the weekdays in either Japan or Venezuela, so I don't see how it could earn so much.UPDATE: Actually the weekend gross seems to be closer to $3.8M and the total gross as of Sunday is $493.0M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2014W31&id=maleficient.htm). BOM says the the $497.2M is as of Friday (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=maleficient.htm), which seems unlikely since the ScreenDaily article appeared Friday morning. However, if it was actually a projection of the total as of Friday, that would make more sense.

Edited August 9, 2014 by Quigley

[Ajbg]

Weekend Forecast (08/09-10)

 

 

01 (--) ¥560 million ($5.4 million), 0, ¥750 million ($7.3 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon (Toho) NEW

02 (--) ¥450 million ($4.3 million), 0, ¥590 million ($5.7 million), Transformers: Age of Extinction (Paramount) NEW

03 (01) ¥379 million ($3.7 million), -36%, ¥1.75 billion ($17.1 million), Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Warner Bros.) Week 2

04 (02) ¥220 million ($2.1 million), -36%, ¥2.10 billion ($20.5 million), Godzilla (Toho) Week 3

05 (04) ¥162 million ($1.5 million), -12%, ¥2.05 billion ($20.1 million), Memories of Marnie (Toho) Week 4

06 (03) ¥151 million ($1.4 million), -35%, ¥5.20 billion ($50.9 million), Maleficent (Disney) Week 6

07 (05) ¥126 million ($1.2 million), -26%, ¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million), Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Toho) Week 4

[highlight=yellow]08 (--) ¥120 million ($1.1 million), 0, ¥120 million ($1.1 million), Space Brothers 0 (Warner Bros.) NEW[/highlight]

09 (06) ¥44 million ($0.4 million), -34%, ¥630 million ($6.1 million), Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Toei) Week 4

10 (07) ¥36 million ($0.3 million), -37%, ¥390 million ($3.7 million), Eight Ranger 2 (Toho) Week 3

 

There's a typhoon hitting Japan this weekend so the drops may end up slightly higher, but morning ticket sales look fine to me.  And unless it's a huge storm that effects central Japan (70/80% of the box-office comes from here), very, very few storms ever affect the box-office really.

 

>Stand By Me, Doraemon beat Transformers: Age of Extinction yesterday by approx. 40%(!), so it's very likely to go on to win the weekend, too.  It's currently outpacing Transformers by about 2:1 today.  And although Transformers will narrow the gap in the evening/night; this is the first 3D Doraemon film in the franchise, and it appears to be bringing in more than just kids/families judging by yesterday's evening/night business.  

 

And it helps to have acclaimed upcoming director Yamazaki Takashi (Always, The Eternal Zero) directing the film, too.

 

Corpse, is the Maleficent total right?

If so, it did much more in weekdays than in weekends.

It had 46 million in the end of last weekend. If it'll have 50.9 million with 1.4 million this weekend, then it made 3.5 million from monday to friday.

And this explain the high number for Maleficent overseas (497.2 million), since it only had 492.5-493 million last weekend.

[Corpse]

Weekdays are stronger than weekends right now and will be until the end of August.  

[Ajbg]

Weekdays are stronger than weekends right now and will be until the end of August.

Thank You.

[Corpse]

Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissiosn (08/09)

51,181 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (NEW)

32,618 - Transformers: Age of Extinction (NEW)

25,320 (-33%) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Week 2)

13,239 (-16%) - Maleficent (Week 6)

12,894 (-45%) - Godzilla (Week 3)

11,263 (-02%) - Memories of Marnie (Week 4)

8,470 (-13%) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Week 4)

4,152 - Space Brothers 0 (NEW)

3,155 (-48%) - Eight Ranger 2 (Week 3)

2,221 (-18%) - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Week 4)

 

Toho, Movix, 109, Kinezo Cinema Chains Saturday Admissions (08/09)

89,145 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (NEW)

58,488 - Transformers: Age of Extinction (NEW)

50,573 (-34%) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (Week 2)

23,319 (-17%) - Maleficent (Week 6)

21,946 (-48%) - Godzilla (Week 3)

20,366 (-02%) - Memories of Marnie (Week 4)

16,115 (-13%) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (Week 4)

9,824 - Space Brothers 0 (NEW)

5,097 (-46%) - Eight Ranger 2 (Week 3)

4,625 (-25%) - Kamen Rider Gaim the Movie: The Great Soccer Match! (Week 4)

 

>Just wow at Stand By Me, Doreamon... it may be aiming for the biggest debut of the year.

 

It's Saturday is approx.:

 

+17% higher than Rurouni Kenshin 2

+27% higher than Godzilla

+53% higher than Pokemon XY

 

And it's Saturday was probably even deflated slightly due to the Typhoon, so Sunday should come in even higher than it normally would have (pre-sales already look well ahead of yesterday's).  

 

I'm thinking a debut around ¥700-800 million ($7-8 million), and with such a huge debut and Obon Week coming up, it'll become Maleficent's challenger for biggest Summer 2014 release with ¥5 billion ($50 million+) very likely.  

 

>Transformers: Age of Extinction is about 15% behind Godzilla's opening right now, so maybe ¥425-450 million ($4.2-4.5 million) for it over the weekend.  If it has a stronger than expected Sunday, too, though, it could reach ¥500 million ($5 million).  It's on track to debut 15-25% behind Transformers: Dark of the Moon at the moment.  

[Cynosure]

51,181 at Toho for Doraemon. Using the multipliers of the movie which came out in march would give us 113,873 for the weekend at Toho and 637,689 admissions overall.

 

That would still be less admissions than Conan's 18th movie...Will it have a higher average ticket price because of the 3D ?

[Corpse]

51,181 at Toho for Doraemon. Using the multipliers of the movie which came out in march would give us 113,873 for the weekend at Toho and 637,689 admissions overall.

 

That would still be less admissions than Conan's 18th movie...Will it have a higher average ticket price because of the 3D ?

If it does those exact admissions, then it should come in slightly higher due to the 3D prices.  

[Corpse]

Toho Cinemas Saturday/Weekend Admissions (Overall Weekend Admissions) [2013-]

 

Opening Day/Weekend (Overall), OD/OW multiplier (OW/Overall Weekend multiplier)

85,115/167,188 (747,451), x1.96 (x4.47) - The Wind Rises (07/20/13)

64,398/133,273 (649,865), x2.07 (x4.88) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (04/19/14)

62,250/120,489 (500,837), x1.94 (x4.16) - Maleficent (07/05/14)

59,492/121,802 (614,969), x2.05 (x5.05) - Monsters University (07/06/13)

59,192/123,606 (602,347), x2.09 (x4.87) - Frozen (03/15/14)

51,800/108,724 (539,132), x2.10 (x4.96) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (12/07/13)

51,181/??,??? (???,???), x?.?? (x?.??) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (08/09/14)

43,669*/75,635 (322,162), x1.73 (x4.26) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (08/03/13)

42,541/94,650 (530,544), x2.22 (x5.60) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (03/08/14)

42,537/91,182 (429,918), x2.14 (x4.71) - The Eternal Zero (12/21/13)

40,635/79,373 (339,048), x1.95 (x4.27) - Godzilla (07/26/14)

40,414*/74,131 (363,451), x1.83 (x4.90) - Midsummer Formula (06/29/13)

39,836/84,982 (365,356), x2.13 (x4.30) - Thermae Romae II (04/26/14)

38,885/85,462* (464,839), x2.20 (x5.44) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (07/13/13)

37,960/88,488* (393,522), x2.33 (x4.45) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 2 (11/30/13)

37,829/78,485 (433,346), x2.08 (x5.52) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (08/02/14)

36,995/79,454 (386,994), x2.15 (x4.87) - The Kiyosu Conference (11/09/13)

35,447/68,592 (330,385), x1.94 (x4.91) - Fast and Furious 6 (07/06/13)

33,778/67,625 (360,190), x2.00 (x5.33) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (07/19/14)

33,358/76,023 (345,921), x2.28 (x4.55) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 1 (11/02/13)

32,618/??,??? (???,???), x?.?? (x?.??) - Transformers: Age of Extinction (08/09/14)

30,000+/60,000+

 

*Stage Greeting/Discount Day boost.

[baumer]

So what is Japan's OW for TRF4 looking like dollar wise?