JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

[edroger3]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Alright, it's late enough, so these numbers probably aren't going to change.

 

Monday Sample:

 

　*1　*22099　６４－ロクヨン－前編 (64 Prequel)

　*2　*20070　ズートピア (Zootopia)

　*3　*18799　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・… (Captain America 3)

 

Zootopia is showing great strength in the evenings. Also, this is a 20.3% drop from two weeks ago. Who knows what will happen on Wednesday, ladies' discount day?

A 20% drop (from the deflated pre-GW monday) can be good. However the overall number of tickets sold is so low that I don't think it is really significant.  

[edroger3]

Zootopia actuals by Sunday: 2,356,413 admissions / 2.987.764.600 Yen (27,5M at today ER)

[cannastop]

Just now, edroger3 said:

Zootopia actuals by Sunday: 2,356,413 admissions / 2.987.764.600 Yen (27,5M at today ER)

Sorry for being annoying, but where did you get that data?

[edroger3]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Sorry for being annoying, but where did you get that data?

 

 

[cannastop]

Just now, edroger3 said:

 

 

Oh, wow that is hard for me to read. Good thing you understand Japanese numerals.

[edroger3]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Oh, wow that is hard for me to read. Good thing you understand Japanese numerals.

According to Google Translate:

 

Mobilization first place "Zootopia" is 16 days mobilized 2,356,413 people in the cumulative total of up to 5/8, has become a 2.9 billion 87,764,600 yen

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, edroger3 said:

According to Google Translate:

 

Mobilization first place "Zootopia" is 16 days mobilized 2,356,413 people in the cumulative total of up to 5/8, has become a 2.9 billion 87,764,600 yen

Well, that works too.

[edroger3]

8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well, that works too.

BTW the average ticket price is 1,268 (higher than expected, maybe more adult moviegoers, so I underestimate a bit the weekend) and Mimorin share is 61,13%

[sfran43]

2 hours ago, edroger3 said:

According to Google Translate:

 

Mobilization first place "Zootopia" is 16 days mobilized 2,356,413 people in the cumulative total of up to 5/8, has become a 2.9 billion 87,764,600 yen

 

Can you dumb that down for me? In US dollars, how much did it make over the weekend, and how much has it accumulated in total $ so far?

[edroger3]

32 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Can you dumb that down for me? In US dollars, how much did it make over the weekend, and how much has it accumulated in total $ so far?

3,5M / 27,5M with today ER

[sfran43]

4 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

3,5M / 27,5M with today ER

 

Thank you!

[Foul01]

On 5/8/2016 at 0:32 AM, Foul01 said:

 

I think it's still a little early to say if the Billion bid is dead yet.

 

Based on BoxOfficeMojo's data, Zootopia still had a OS-Japan gross of 6.4 million in the past week.

(calculated by deducting Japan gross from Foreign Total)

 

	Foreign Total	Japan	OS-Japan	OS-Japan Weekly Gross
April 18-24	592,100,000	3,988,949	588,111,051
April 25-May 1	609,000,000	13,531,841	595,468,159	7,357,108
May 2-8	628,800,000	26,900,000	601,900,000	6,431,841

 

By this number, we could very well end up with another $10 million from OS-Japan... totaling to around $612M
(we also still have Turkey, which could give a boost of around $1~$3M)

Domestic had a huge drop in the weekend, but even if it continues with the weekly drop of 50%, we can still end up with $334M... which it most likely will not 

 

Which means Japan will need to make around $54M to hit the Billion mark... $60~$65M for safety. 

This is not far off from what we estimated a few days ago.
Japan has done 45~50% of the target box office already... if Japan can be like a showgirl and show some more legs, the bid is very much still alive.

 

	Domestic	OS-Japan	Japan	Total World Wide
May 8, 2016	327,624,990	601,900,000	26,900,000	956,424,990
Final Prediction	334,000,000	612,000,000	54,000,000	1,000,000,000

 

 

 

BoxOfficeMojo just adjusted their Foreign Gross as of May 8 from 628,800,00 to 630,000,000

This increase of $1.2M may seem small, but it could make a huge difference.

 

For one, this means the OS-Japan Gross from last week is actually higher than the week before:

 

	Foreign Total	Japan	OS-Japan	OS-Japan Weekly Gross
April 18-24	592,100,000	3,988,949	588,111,051
April 25-May 1	609,000,000	13,531,841	595,468,159	7,357,108
May 2-8	630,000,000	26,900,000	603,100,000	7,631,841

 

*numbers calculated by deducting the total Japan gross from the total foreign gross of each week

 

Suddenly, the final estimation of OS-Japan at $612M (based on another $10M more) seems very conservative.

 

Not only that, the final estimation of $334M for Domestic Gross is based on 50% drop for every week starting next week... which is very unlikely considering its previous weekly holds.

Other estimations could put it as high as $338.3M (50% drop next week and 30% drop every week after)

 

For all we know, Japan might just need to do $50M to pass through the Billion Mark.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by Foul01

[LMAbacus]

I have to wonder, though how accurate BOM is with their totals. Hopefully their overall total is accurate, because if you look at some of their individual country totals:

 

Australia

 

Apr. 28–May 1							$20,907,849
May 5–8							$20,471,862

 

France

 

Apr. 13–17							$31,147,097
Apr. 27–May 1							$31,463,000
May 4–8							$36,449,253

 

Also, a 50% drop in domestic next week seems unlikely. There's only one wide release next weekend, which is rated R, and Zootopia has held up very well the week after a blockbuster comes out, with a 19.6% drop after BvS and 19.2% after Jungle Book. Angry Birds two weeks later is the most likely culprit to push its drop to 50%, because it's going to directly lose screens to it. On the other hand, Angry Birds is getting released in most European markets this week, which is probably going to quash the foreign gross.

Edited May 9, 2016 by LMAbacus

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

I have to wonder, though how accurate BOM is with their totals. Hopefully their overall total is accurate, because if you look at some of their individual country totals:

 

Australia

 

Apr. 28–May 1							$20,907,849
May 5–8							$20,471,862

 

France

 

Apr. 13–17							$31,147,097
Apr. 27–May 1							$31,463,000
May 4–8							$36,449,253

 

Also, a 50% drop next week seems unlikely. There's only one wide release next weekend, which is rated R, and Zootopia has held up very well the week after a blockbuster comes out, with a 19.6% drop after BvS and 19.2% after Jungle Book. Angry Birds two weeks later is the most likely culprit to push its drop to 50%, because it's going to directly lose screens to it.

Keep in mind that Angry Birds is probably going to fuck up Ratchet and Clank even harder.

But this is supposed to be about Japan.

Edited May 9, 2016 by cannastop

[bambam]

1 hour ago, Foul01 said:

 

BoxOfficeMojo just adjusted their Foreign Gross as of May 8 from 628,800,00 to 630,000,000

This increase of $1.2M may seem small, but it could make a huge difference.

 

For one, this means the OS-Japan Gross from last week is actually higher than the week before:

 

	Foreign Total	Japan	OS-Japan	OS-Japan Weekly Gross
April 18-24	592,100,000	3,988,949	588,111,051
April 25-May 1	609,000,000	13,531,841	595,468,159	7,357,108
May 2-8	630,000,000	26,900,000	603,100,000	7,631,841

 

*numbers calculated by deducting the total Japan gross from the total foreign gross of each week

 

Suddenly, the final estimation of OS-Japan at $612M (based on another $10M more) seems very conservative.

 

Not only that, the final estimation of $334M for Domestic Gross is based on 50% drop for every week starting next week... which is very unlikely considering its previous weekly holds.

Other estimations could put it as high as $338.3M (50% drop next week and 30% drop every week after)

 

For all we know, Japan might just need to do $50M to pass through the Billion Mark.

 

 

 

Good info. Glad to see Japan's needed total get a bit smaller. Also, domestic weekend actuals were 20% higher than estimates so, that helps too.

[Foul01]

5 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

I have to wonder, though how accurate BOM is with their totals. Hopefully their overall total is accurate, because if you look at some of their individual country totals:

 

BoxOfficeMojo seems to have a habit of giving lower estimations first before adjusting higher

The Foreign Total two weeks ago was 607,900,000 before they adjusted it to 609,000,000
The Foreign Total last week was 628,800,000 before it got changed to 630,000,000 yesterday

 

same thing goes for the Domestic Gross,

the Sunday week over week drop was 57% before they adjusted to 26.9%
that was not the only time too... this has happened in previous weekends as well

 

Seems like BoxOfficeMojo is conservative.

They are much more likely to estimate low at first.

 

That said, regardless of how accurate BoxOfficeMojo is, they seem to be the source of Box Office numbers that all major medias are citing.

Which is pretty surprising to me that there isn't a more official record keeper of box office numbers.

[Tower]

5 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

I have to wonder, though how accurate BOM is with their totals. Hopefully their overall total is accurate, because if you look at some of their individual country totals:

 

Australia

 

Apr. 28–May 1							$20,907,849
May 5–8							$20,471,862

 

France

 

Apr. 13–17							$31,147,097
Apr. 27–May 1							$31,463,000
May 4–8							$36,449,253

 

 

There is no connection between the the total OS number and the individual country numbers. The total OS number comes from the studios themselves, while the individual country numbers come from a bunch of different local sources not related to the studio, these sources tend to come in local currency which BOM converts in a poor way. This means that you can't take the country dollar totals as exactly accurate, but the total OS numbers should be fine.

[Jason]

7 hours ago, Foul01 said:

Suddenly, the final estimation of OS-Japan at $612M (based on another $10M more) seems very conservative.

 

Not only that, the final estimation of $334M for Domestic Gross is based on 50% drop for every week starting next week... which is very unlikely considering its previous weekly holds.

Other estimations could put it as high as $338.3M (50% drop next week and 30% drop every week after)

 

For all we know, Japan might just need to do $50M to pass through the Billion Mark.

 

After this weekend's updated results, I'm pretty convinced we could need at little as $50M from Japan to pass $1B. Even a bit less, considering Turkey's got a decent chance of chipping in $3M or so. So question is - how likely is $50M from Japan at this point? What's the range of what we can expect from Japan? Is it still hard to tell?

[LMAbacus]

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

But this is supposed to be about Japan.

 

This is about whether or not Japan's total will push Zootopia over $1 billion, and the other markets are part of that equation.

 

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

Keep in mind that Angry Birds is probably going to fuck up Ratchet and Clank even harder.

 

This is supposed to be about Japan.