JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

19 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

That's a great hold for Zootopia. Now I'm on the $1B train.

We should probably compare this weekend to Zootopia's 1st.

[Cynosure]

It will probably fall less than 10% compared to its OW which will be a great result.

[Olive]

Friday drop is 20%..

Last Sunday was inflated though, 20%-30% weekend drop likely.

Edited May 7, 2016 by Olive

[Cynosure]

In admissions, yes. But Sunday's average ticket price will rise compared to last Sunday, the drop in revenue won't be as significant.

[edroger3]

 

From Sat 1 - 13%

From Sat 2 - 19%

[cannastop]

　*1　*25141　ズートピア(Zootopia)
　*2　*16235　６４－ロクヨン－前編 (Nintendo 64)
　*3　*15554　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の… (Detective Conan 2016)

And here we have Zootopia winning by a huge margin.

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

 

Edited May 8, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

Alright, it looks like Zootopia is easily taking the top spot, and it's a close race for 2nd place. But you know why I'm here.

 

Anyways, from the sample, Zootopia sold about 83,000 tickets on Saturday and 88,000 tickets on Sunday. 171,000 tickets in total. Adjusting for the overall theaters, that's about 263,000 tickets overall. If the average price was ¥1,320, the total gross in local currency is ¥347,160,000. The current exchange rate makes that:

 

$3,240,000

Edited May 8, 2016 by cannastop

[edroger3]

 

 

Drop in $$$ is better, -33% in line with past years movies (Cinderella -35% - Frozen -34%) post GW. 

 

Edit

WW total is now at 956,4. 22M added this week (14 Jap - 4 Usa - 4 Oth). In Usa the weekend is -50%, so next week should be under 10M (4/5 Jap - 2,5 Usa - 2,5 Other>). R.I.P. Billion.

Edited May 8, 2016 by edroger3

[Jason]

4 hours ago, edroger3 said:

WW total is now at 956,4. 22M added this week (14 Jap - 4 Usa - 4 Oth). In Usa the weekend is -50%, so next week should be under 10M (4/5 Jap - 2,5 Usa - 2,5 Other>). R.I.P. Billion.

 

Last week's WW total after Monday actuals came in was $932.8M. OS-Japan was at $595.5M, now at $602M (estimate), so about +$6.5M. Ultimately WW-Japan should still come to at least $940M, up to $945M. Amount required from Japan of $55M-$60M is not much higher than earlier estimates, so I don't think anything from this week's US or OS-Japan results is likely to change whether or not Zootopia hits $1B. Unless Zootopia ends up falling just short of $1B.

Edited May 8, 2016 by Jason

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved

Weekend Estimates (05/07-08)/2016年05月07日-2016年05月08日
01 (02) ¥346,000,000 ($3.2 million), -32%, ¥2,925,000,000 ($27.3 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK3
02 (01) ¥269,000,000 ($2.5 million), -52%, ¥5,020,000,000 ($46.3 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK4
03 (---) ¥235,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥235,000,000 ($2.2 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) NEW
04 (03) ¥228,000,000 ($2.1 million), -49%, ¥1,760,000,000 ($16.4 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK2
05 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), Road to High & Low (Shochiku) NEW
06 (03) ¥109,000,000 ($1.0 million), -52%, ¥1,660,000,000 ($15.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK4
07 (05) ¥102,000,000 ($950,000), -53%, ¥785,000,000 ($7.3 million), Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) WK2
08 (06) ¥97,000,000 ($905,000), -43%, ¥1,085,000,000 ($10.3 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) WK3
09 (09) ¥73,000,000 ($685,000), +09%, ¥445,000,000 ($4.1 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) WK3
10 (07) ¥60,000,000 ($560,000), -60%, ¥540,000,000 ($5.1 million), Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) WK2

A lot of rough drops this weekend, but post-Golden Week considered, these aren't too bad.

>Zootopia claims its first weekend atop the box office over its third weekend in release, and delivered a very nice hold that's slightly better than Cinderella's from last year. It's edging closer and closer to the ¥3 billion milestone and should also exceed the ¥4 billion ($35 million) near the end of May. From there, it begins its mission of reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone; chances being about 50/50 at the moment.

>Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare is finally dethroned after enjoying three-consecutive weeks in first place. The Detective Conan films always drop over 50% over the post Golden Week weekend, so the large decline here isn't surprising (in fact, if estimates hold, it's slightly better than most previous entries). It's either barely below or just above the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone after this weekend, and having accomplished that achievement and becoming the highest-grossing film in the series, the only thing left for it to do now is to add more to it's incredible total as it aims for ¥6 billion ($55 million).

>Captain America: Civil War also experiences a rough second weekend drop, however, given the frontloaded nature of superhero films in the market and with it coming off of Golden Week, a decline around 50% is actually quite good. It remains on course to exceed the ¥2.5 billion milestone, and while I doubt it'll have the legs required to reach the ¥3 billion mark, as long as it can reach ¥2.58 billion (beating Iron Man 3), it'll claim the title of highest-grossing non-Spider-Man/Avengers film.

>64: Part 1 managed to surprise a bit over the weekend, coming in much higher than its pre-sales indicated on Friday. This was largely due to how strongly its walk-up business was in the morning/afternoon hours, suggesting it has significant senior appeal. The police drama starring Koichi Sato looks to have comfortably debuted above ¥200 million, unless its senior audience drove its avg. ticket price down too much, so it's likely to become another ¥1 billion earner this year.

>Road to High & Low... I really misread this one on Friday when I posted the weekend forecast. Its pre-sales represented a very high percentage of its weekend admissions, and I didn't check beforehand to notice it had a limited number of showtimes as well. Still, an opening above ¥100 million on just 141 screens for a preview of the actual film that'll open on July 16th is still impressive.

>Terra Formars pretty much collapsed. Its admissions were down nearly 70%, and with a weekend drop around the 60% mark (very, very rare in Japan), it'll be losing seating/screens very, very fast. It's unlikely to reach the ¥1 billion milestone now as well, making this film a bomb for Warner Bros..

[Foul01]

2 hours ago, edroger3 said:

 

WW total is now at 956,4. 22M added this week (14 Jap - 4 Usa - 4 Oth). In Usa the weekend is -50%, so next week should be under 10M (4/5 Jap - 2,5 Usa - 2,5 Other>). R.I.P. Billion.

 

I think it's still a little early to say if the Billion bid is dead yet.

 

Based on BoxOfficeMojo's data, Zootopia still had a OS-Japan gross of 6.4 million in the past week.

(calculated by deducting Japan gross from Foreign Total)

 

	Foreign Total	Japan	OS-Japan	OS-Japan Weekly Gross
April 18-24	592,100,000	3,988,949	588,111,051
April 25-May 1	609,000,000	13,531,841	595,468,159	7,357,108
May 2-8	628,800,000	26,900,000	601,900,000	6,431,841

 

By this number, we could very well end up with another $10 million from OS-Japan... totaling to around $612M
(we also still have Turkey, which could give a boost of around $1~$3M)

Domestic had a huge drop in the weekend, but even if it continues with the weekly drop of 50%, we can still end up with $334M... which it most likely will not 

 

Which means Japan will need to make around $54M to hit the Billion mark... $60~$65M for safety. 

This is not far off from what we estimated a few days ago.
Japan has done 45~50% of the target box office already... if Japan can be like a showgirl and show some more legs, the bid is very much still alive.

 

	Domestic	OS-Japan	Japan	Total World Wide
May 8, 2016	327,624,990	601,900,000	26,900,000	956,424,990
Final Prediction	334,000,000	612,000,000	54,000,000	1,000,000,000

 

 

Edited May 8, 2016 by Foul01

[Arlo245]

I think the total will be around $50 million for Zootopia (even though $40 million is realistic). I think $60 million is unlikely. Worldwide is at $956 million. If I was being optimistic, $8 million more domestic, $6 million more from OS-Japan and $23 million more from Japan should get it to $993 million which might prompt Disney to fudge it to $1 billion. Although, It's realistically looking at a $980-982 million total which Disney might just leave as is.

 

I really hope Angry Birds disappoints and Zootopia gets a successful expansion on Labour Day weekend. If that happens, we could be looking at $12 million more domestically ($333 million total pre-Labour day weekend, $336 million total post-LDW, $340 million total domestically). This would require $53 million from Japan which would be tough but it could happen which amazing holds post-GW (It already had a great hold of -32% this weekend off of last weekend's inflated figure and it would need to maintain regular 5-15% drops from here on) 

[cannastop]

The top 3 films in Japan right now have cops or law enforcement in the lead roles.

Edited May 8, 2016 by cannastop

[Quigley]

Deadline is saying $3.7M for the weekend

Edited May 8, 2016 by Quigley

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Deadline is saying $3.7M for the weekend

I think the reason for the discrepancy between that and what I predicted is this:

 

I estimated the survey to account for 65% of the tickets. It may have been closer to 62%, and I rounded down.

[cannastop]

@Arlo245

Disney is probably not going to expand Zootopia because it has the new Alice movie coming out. Also, it doesn't matter if Angry Birds disappoints because it's still going to take up a bunch of theaters on opening day.

[cannastop]

I still think Zootopia might really make it big. Like perhaps ¥7 billion big. It has basically no competition until July, after all.

Edited May 8, 2016 by cannastop

[23IsEverywhere]

For the Domestic theater loss, Keanu(+600 theaters), Ratchet and Clank(+800 theaters), and BvS (-500 theaters) will likely lose screens first, as would Mothers Day when it plummets post Mothers Day.  I think Zoo should continue to have a solid grasp on its screens for a couple more weeks.

[cannastop]

8 hours ago, 23IsEverywhere said:

For the Domestic theater loss, Keanu(+600 theaters), Ratchet and Clank(+800 theaters), and BvS (-500 theaters) will likely lose screens first, as would Mothers Day when it plummets post Mothers Day.  I think Zoo should continue to have a solid grasp on its screens for a couple more weeks.

Uh, we're supposed to be talking about Japan in this thread.

[cannastop]

Alright, it's late enough, so these numbers probably aren't going to change.

 

Monday Sample:

 

　*1　*22099　６４－ロクヨン－前編 (64 Prequel)

　*2　*20070　ズートピア (Zootopia)

　*3　*18799　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・… (Captain America 3)

 

Zootopia is showing great strength in the evenings. Also, this is a 20.3% drop from two weeks ago. Who knows what will happen on Wednesday, ladies' discount day?