JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Agafin]

Just now, Quigley said:

 

I think most people here will consider a success anything that makes Zootopia reach $1B. That is, to be fair, not an objective way of discussing Zootopia's Japanese run but it has preoccupied the discussion. Blockbuster levels for Japan or around 5B yen and only two Disney films (Big Hero 6 and Frozen) have done more than that. Zootopia will probably do more than that but it won't be enough to reach $1B.

 

I guess you mean Animated films (and excluding Pixar) since movies like AiW, SW or PoTC 1,2,3,4 all did that.

Edited May 5, 2016 by Agafin

[edroger3]

2 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

 

A bad sign for Zootopia? Almost every single movie dropped from Tuesday, including the decidedly childish Crayon Shin-Chan. Zootopia actually had one of the lowest drops in attendance.

 

-4.5% Zootopia

-13.1% Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare
-10.2% Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World
 

The fact that Zoo drops like a frontoladed franchise in its 3rd week, absolutely isn't a good sign about our hope for good legs and that this movie could become the 5th original (non sequel or cinematic franchise) ever to reach 1B in its first run.

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, edroger3 said:

The fact that Zoo drops like a frontoladed franchise in its 3rd week, absolutely isn't a good sign about our hope for good legs and that this movie could become the 5th original (non sequel or cinematic franchise) ever to reach 1B in its first run.

 

How do you explain almost every other movie dropping much more then? It could've just been an odd day. A lot of the movies were tracking better than Tuesday at 2pm, then suddenly dropped off afterwords.

 

Edit: I just looked up last year's numbers. First, Crayon Shin-Chan dropped from May 4 to May 5 again, so it seems May 5 isn't the biggest day for children movies after all. Second, every single movie went up from May 3 to May 5, including Conan, Crayon Shin-Chan and Cinderella. So looking at overall trends is more important than simply looking at a single movie's change in gross.

Edited May 5, 2016 by LMAbacus

[Foul01]

1 hour ago, Quigley said:

 

I think most people here will consider a success anything that makes Zootopia reach $1B. That is, to be fair, not an objective way of discussing Zootopia's Japanese run but it has preoccupied the discussion. Blockbuster levels for Japan or around 5B yen and only two Disney films (Big Hero 6 and Frozen) have done more than that. Zootopia will probably do more than that but it won't be enough to reach $1B.

"Only two Disney (animated) Films" doesn't actually mean a lot.
Disney animations went through some shitty period... forgot about a gross of Zootopia or Frozen's scale for now. Before Tangled, you would have to go all the way back to Lion King for a Disney Animation with a world wide gross of more than $500 million.

Disney only really started becoming great again with Tangled. And since then, there's really only been 5 great animation films (Tangled, Wreck-It Ralph, Frozen, Big Hero 6, and Zootopia)

 

Tangled was the first, so understandably there wasn't much expectation or hype to watch it at first (and to be brutally honest, probably the weakest of the new Disney Renaissance as well)
Wreck-It Ralph is a film that relies very heavily on the early arcade gaming culture, which I don't think the Japanese can relate very well to. It is true that Japan also had its arcade gaming culture back in the days, but apart from Street Fighter, I think none of the Japanese games were mentioned in Wreck-It Ralph.

 

and then, two movies in a row that made big bucks in Japan (Frozen and Big Hero 6).

 

Though honestly, I am a little disappointed with the performance of Zootopia so far (in the context that I hope it would push the world wide gross to over 1 billion).

Zootopia will need $60 million in Japan to be safe ($55 million is gambling a little) and so far it has only made $23 million.

 

But there are some bright signs:

1. Zootopia ranking increased from 2nd to 1st in the last 3 days.
2. Zootopia's drop rate is lower than its major competitors in Japan now.
3. There doesn't seem to be any movie that can directly affect Zootopia coming out soon (Superhero films tend not to do well in Japan... just look at Civil War now)

All these indicated that Zootopia will have some legs in Japan... this is perhaps due to the Word-of-Mouth starting to spread out in Japan.
There is still a chance that Zootopia can hit $55~$60 million in Japan if their legs can extend long enough.

Edited May 5, 2016 by Foul01

[cannastop]

I don't think we should count out Zootopia. After all, it is the #1 movie in Japan right now. And all of the buzz in the Japanese internet community is glowing.

Edited May 5, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

I've noticed that some showings for Zootopia are nearly sold out for Saturday at Toho's Shibuya, Tokyo location. I guess some people are thinking "Damn, I missed this movie, and I have to go to work on Friday. I better catch it on Saturday afternoon!"

[cannastop]

Seat Count for May 07, 2016

*1　308080　1113　276.8　218　348　62.6%　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の悪夢（ナイトメア）(Detective Conan 2016)
*2　305365　1103　276.8　223　348　64.1%　ズートピア(Zootopia)
*3　256523　1216　211.0　225　336　67.0%　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・アメリカ (Captain America 3)

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11278.html

 

Increase for Zootopia, and big decreases for Detective Conan and Captain America.

 

 

 

[edroger3]

2 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

So looking at overall trends is more important than simply looking at a single movie's change in gross.

Ok, I agree.

But if you look at the history of this thread, you can see that the 99% of posts are about movies that don't follow the "overall trends".

Overall trends are boring. If Frozen (or Zootopia in other countries) had followed the overall trends, many of us wouldn't be here.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

Ok, I agree.

But if you look at the history of this thread, you can see that the 99% of posts are about movies that don't follow the "overall trends".

Overall trends are boring. If Frozen (or Zootopia in other countries) had followed the overall trends, many of us wouldn't be here.

Well, Zootopia did increase on its second weekend in Japan. That's not exactly keeping in trend.

[LMAbacus]

40 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

Ok, I agree.

But if you look at the history of this thread, you can see that the 99% of posts are about movies that don't follow the "overall trends".

Overall trends are boring. If Frozen (or Zootopia in other countries) had followed the overall trends, many of us wouldn't be here.

 

Well, it didn't follow the overall trend. It dropped less than the other movies. You can only buck the overall trend so far, and for whatever reason, ticket sales got hammered for every movie after 2pm.

[yjs]

isn't Japan's movie run like extremely consistent and leggy anyway? like making similar amount of money for the 12-15 straight weeks. or was that just Frozen and Big Hero 6? 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, yjs said:

isn't Japan's movie run like extremely consistent and leggy anyway? like making similar amount of money for the 12-15 straight weeks. or was that just Frozen and Big Hero 6? 

Well, I guess movies tend to be more leggy than average in Japan, but Frozen and Big Hero 6 are exeptional cases. It remains to be seen how Zootopia follows in their path. I do think it's going to be #1 for a few weeks, though, mainly because there's almost no competition in the dead months of May and June.

[cannastop]

　*1　**3857　ズートピア(Zootopia)
　*2　**3791　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・…(Captain America 3)
　*3　**2937　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…(Detective Conan 2016)

 

Looks like another tight race today. Also, it's a normal workday in Japan, so attendance will be low.

[Cynosure]

The Friday numbers are not looking very encouraging. Could drop quite significantly this weekend I think.

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

The Friday numbers are not looking very encouraging. Could drop quite significantly this weekend I think.

Really? Detective Conan 2016 sold 37,000 tickets on Friday April 22, according to the sample, and its second weekend was pretty nice. I guess Zootopia might be heading for under that, though.

[Cynosure]

In the past few days Zootopia's 11 am number has been around 23% of its daily admissions. Even being generous and using 20% instead, that still puts it at less than 20k admissions for the day in the usual locations. The fact that it will likely experience the largest thursday/friday drop among the top 3 movies is definitely not a good sign for the upcoming weekend.

Edited May 6, 2016 by Cynosure

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Golden Week: 2016 - Daily Estimates (05/02-05/05)

Monday
¥140 million ($1.3 million) / ¥890 million ($8.3 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 4
¥120 million ($1.2 million) / ¥3.820 billion ($35.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 17
¥110 million ($1.0 million) / ¥1.550 billion ($14.3 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 10
¥55 million ($515,000) / ¥710 million ($6.5 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 10
¥45 million ($420,000) / ¥380 million ($3.6 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 4
¥39 million ($365,000) / ¥265 million ($2.5 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 4
¥34 million ($320,000) / ¥615 million ($5.7 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 11
¥28 million ($260,000) / ¥1.150 billion ($10.6 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 17
¥13 million ($120,000) / ¥295 million ($2.8 million) - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) Day 10
¥10 million ($95,000) / ¥45 million ($425,000) - Scanner (Toei) Day 4

Tuesday (Constitution Day)
¥295 million ($2.8 million) / ¥1.850 billion ($17.2 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 11
¥285 million ($2.7 million) / ¥4.105 billion ($37.8 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 18
¥200 million ($1.9 million) / ¥1.090 billion ($10.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 5
¥120 million ($1.1 million) / ¥1.270 billion ($11.8 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 18
¥80 million ($750,000) / ¥790 million ($7.3 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 11
¥80 million ($750,000) / ¥460 million ($4.4 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 5
¥60 million ($560,000) / ¥325 million ($3.1 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 5
¥50 million ($470,000) / ¥665 million ($6.2 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 12
¥21 million ($195,000) / ¥3.360 billion ($30.3 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) Day 39
¥17 million ($160,000) / ¥315 million ($3.0 million) - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) Day 11

Wednesday (Greenery Day)
¥390 million ($3.7 million) / ¥2.240 billion ($20.9 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 12
¥340 million ($3.2 million) / ¥4.445 billion ($41.0 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 19
¥200 million ($1.9 million) / ¥1.290 billion ($12.1 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 6
¥145 million ($1.4 million) / ¥1.415 billion ($13.2 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 19
¥95 million ($890,000) / ¥560 million ($5.3 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 6
¥90 million ($840,000) / ¥880 million ($8.2 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 12
¥70 million ($655,000) / ¥400 million ($3.8 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 6
¥60 million ($560,000) / ¥725 million ($6.8 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 12
¥26 million ($245,000) / ¥3.385 billion ($30.5 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) Day 40
¥21 million ($195,000) / ¥80 million ($750,000) - Scanner (Toei) Day 6

Thursday (Children's Day)
¥280 million ($2.6 million) / ¥2.520 billion ($23.5 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 13
¥250 million ($2.3 million) / ¥4.695 billion ($43.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 20
¥160 million ($1.4 million) / ¥1.450 billion ($13.5 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 7
¥110 million ($1.0 million) / ¥1.525 billion ($14.2 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 20
¥85 million ($795,000) / ¥645 million ($6.1 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 7
¥75 million ($700,000) / ¥955 million ($9.0 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 13
¥55 million ($515,000) / ¥455 million ($4.3 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 7
¥37 million ($345,000) / ¥765 million ($7.2 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 13
¥21 million ($195,000) / ¥3.405 billion ($30.7 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) Day 41
¥14 million ($130,000) / ¥360 million ($3.3 million) - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) Day 13

Golden Week 2016 is officially over!

Takeaways:

>Zootopia performed exceptionally well over the past weekend but even moreso over the weekday portion of the holiday frame; even achieving its first 1st place ranking(s) over the past three days. This is good news, though also a sign that it could be in store for significant drops post-Golden Week since it's clearly skewing young (wasn't totally clear the first week of release). However, even if it would see poor/standard drops from here-on-out, it's set itself up to reach at least ¥4 billion, and stands a fair chance of reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone, too.

>Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare continued to play well into the weekday portion of the holiday frame after achieving its third-consecutive weekend atop the box office and became the highest-grossing film in the franchise on either Wednesday or Thursday. The 20th anniversary film will exceed the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone over the upcoming weekend, and still has its sight on possibly exceeding ¥6 billion ($55 million) as well.

>Captain America: Civil War has had to settle for third place for all but a couple days of its run so far, but is still grossing impressive figures for a superhero film in the market. It should be able to withstand the post-Golden Week decline a bit better than most other films in the Top 10 since it's skewing toward an adult audience, and is likely to finish between ¥2.5-3.0 billion ($23-27 million). Compared to other the Marvel/DC films, it'll only finish behind all five Spider-Man films and the two Avenger films.

>Terra Formars was never able to catch on to take advantage of the holiday period like it was hoping to, and is going to struggle to reach the ¥1 billion milestone. Very, very disappointing run for this film, and it'll become Warner Bros.'s first misstep since focusing their efforts in the market on Japanese releases in 2012.

>The Revenant is a likely candidate to lose significant seating/screens post-Golden Week, but the holiday frame was pretty generous toward it, and it should be able to crawl over the ¥1 billion milestone. Overall, though, a tad disappointing considering how DiCaprio's past films have performed in the market.

[POTUS 2020]

8 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

 

How do you explain almost every other movie dropping much more then? It could've just been an odd day. A lot of the movies were tracking better than Tuesday at 2pm, then suddenly dropped off afterwords.

 

Edit: I just looked up last year's numbers. First, Crayon Shin-Chan dropped from May 4 to May 5 again, so it seems May 5 isn't the biggest day for children movies after all. Second, every single movie went up from May 3 to May 5, including Conan, Crayon Shin-Chan and Cinderella. So looking at overall trends is more important than simply looking at a single movie's change in gross.

Depends on how the days fall too. Ladies boosted the 4th this year

 

[LMAbacus]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Depends on how the days fall too. Ladies boosted the 4th this year

 

 

Right, which is why I looked at last year when that wasn't the case.

 

4 hours ago, Cynosure said:

In the past few days Zootopia's 11 am number has been around 23% of its daily admissions. Even being generous and using 20% instead, that still puts it at less than 20k admissions for the day in the usual locations. The fact that it will likely experience the largest thursday/friday drop among the top 3 movies is definitely not a good sign for the upcoming weekend.

 

I'm not arguing that the numbers look weak as a whole, but the last few days have been holidays and Zootopia has had much stronger afternoons and evenings on non-holiday weekdays. It made 49.9%, 64.0%, 61.9%, 69.9% and 53.0% of its daily gross after 2PM on its first Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and last Monday, whereas it maxed out at 41.1% on the other days save for opening day. Even if you use the lowest of those (49.9%), you're already at 26k.

[Foul01]

looks like Conan is falling the hardest of the top 3 now

Edited May 6, 2016 by Foul01