JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[bambam]

11 minutes ago, Quigley said:

 

Summer weekdays only start in mid-June. We'll be seeing 70-80% drops on weekdays compared to Sunday (excluding holiday Mondays) 

 

Let's hope its weekend grosses continue to be significantly higher than IO's to balance it out. ??

[Olive]

Summer starts in July in Japan.

[fastclock]

47 minutes ago, Olive said:

Summer starts in July in Japan.

 

http://web-japan.org/kidsweb/explore/calendar/april/schoolyear.html

The Japanese school year begins in April, not in September like in the United States and other countries. The first term runs to around July 20, when summer vacation begins. Kids return to school in early September for the second term, which lasts until about December 25. The final term begins in early January and continues to late March.

Edited May 4, 2016 by fastclock

[POTUS 2020]

Zoo is down 28% from yesterday at this time.

Ladies day is a very early day for admissions,  midpoint was at 1300 instead of 1400.

It is 20% ahead of Tuesday this time

 

[Foul01]

10 hours ago, Jason said:

 

 

The total on the third week will be the same, but the cumulative total will not be. Using this example:

 

Case 1 cumulative: 1(0.5) + 1(0.5)(0.7) + 1(0.5)(0.7)(0.7) = 1.095

Case 2 cumulative: 1(0.7) + 1(0.7)(0.7) + 1(0.7)(0.7)(0.5) = 1.435

 

So yes, it does matter when the greater drop occurs, the sooner it occurs, the lower the cumulative total will be.

 

Oops, I brain darted.

 

Dammit, I'm supposed to know this. I'm Asian 

[pepsa]

14 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

 

Oops, I brain darted.

 

Dammit, I'm supposed to know this. I'm Asian 

 

Stereotypes are strong in this one

Edited May 5, 2016 by pepsa

[POTUS 2020]

12 hours ago, bambam said:

True, but I'd argue that Minions affected IO more than any of the films you mentioned are going to affect Zootopia. And again, hopefully the competition is offset by the fact that Zootopia is heading into summer. Even with fewer screens I think they'll be more packed than IO during back to school season.

IO  may have had minions to compete in week 3, but it got a bump from Obon in week 5. Back to school wasn't til week 8.

 

Zoo should be over $25m on Friday.

If the weekend is 3.5m + $1.5m m-f. It's at 30m. 

25% average weekly drops will bring it to 45m. 

It will need 20% drops to get 50m.

Summer doesn't start until mid July.  It won't get any midweek bumps.

 

Edited May 5, 2016 by No Prisoners

[edroger3]

 

Zoo is - 25% in the morning and -40% in the afternoon, Conan drop hard too. As expected two discounted holidays in four days have burned some demand. We'll see if this will hurt the weekend.

[Cynosure]

They'll both do around 70% of yesterday's admissions by the end of the day. In revenue the drop won't be nearly as bad since there was no discount day today.

[Agafin]

15 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

 

I said weekly drops, not weekend. It had a great weekly hold last week, and another good one this week, but I don't know about future weeks.

 

Weekly drops have two components, the weekday drops and the weekend drops. The weekday drops were miniscule during spring break, but that's over now, and weekdays are only accounting for 18% to 24% of the weekly gross instead of over 30% back then. The weekend drops have been great when there isn't a blockbuster opening, but there are going to be many of those in the coming weeks, and the question is when that 50% drop will occur. If it occurs this weekend then any number of strong holds afterwards will be against a lower baseline; consecutive drops of 30%, 30%, 50% is a lot different than 50%, 30%, 30%.

 

Even Avatar and Frozen, the leggiest movies of these past fifteen years dropped by more than 30% after the end of the NY holiday.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=avatar.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=frozen2013.htm

 

Or to stay within the same period (Spring Break), HTTYD got a multiplier of 5 but even it dropped by about 30% after the end of SB:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=howtotrainyourdragon.htm

 

I'm not sure why you would expect a movie to have a sub 30% hold from one inflated week (summer weekedys, New Year holidays, Spring break) to one without such an advantage. Weekdays will drop hard no matter what (since people don't have those days off anymore) and that will drag down the overall weekly hold, so it's through the weekend holds that you can see whether a movie still has gunpower left and Zootopia so far has been holding like no other (so to speak). This week will also have a sub 30% drop btw (it's currently down 31.7% without even including Wednesday or Thursday gross).

 

As for when the inevitable 50% drop will happen, I guess it will happen once the DVD/Blu ray is released in June and by then it most likely won't matter that much. I think AIW2 will lead to a steeper than usual drop but not quite 50% (it didn't fall by 50% against JB and AIW will likely open lower). This weekend won't drop by more than 50% even with CW thanks to double features. You can check how previous Disney flicks fared the first week of May when they had a Marvel tentpole released:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=18&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2013&wknd=18&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=18&p=.htm

 

(Jorn Carter in 2012, Oz The Great And Powerful in 2013 and Cinderella in 2015).

 

15 hours ago, bambam said:

Hey, new to the forum. Glad to see I'm nowhere near the only who follows this stuff. I've been doing some comparisons of Zootopia and Inside Out's domestic runs (weekly numbers) and Zootopia, since the beginning of it's 3rd week, has been outgrossing IO, on average, about 42%. If you take just the last three weeks (6-8) that number actually goes up to about 57%. This week alone (which has only reported 4 days) it's 62% ahead of IO's corresponding week 9. From the beginning of its 9th week, IO still earned another ~19M. If Zootopia holds a 42% edge (the more conservative percentage), that would mean it would add another 27M to its end of week 8 total.

 

I think it will actually hold a higher than 42% edge since, at the same point in time, IO's run was in back to school territory, whereas Zootopia is heading into summer.

 

Welcome!

I think there's a huge detail you forgot. It's true that IO didn't have Summer weekdays late in its run, but then again it was made available on Homevideo very late (November or December iirc) while Zootopia will be released on DVD/Bluray in early June so that'll kill its legs after that and prevent it from benefitting from summer weekdays at all.

 

@No Prisoners We're talking about DOM, not Japan. Zootopia obviously won't last till July in Japan.

[POTUS 2020]

23 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Even Avatar and Frozen, the leggiest movies of these past fifteen years dropped by more than 30% after the end of the NY holiday.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=avatar.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=frozen2013.htm

 

Or to stay within the same period (Spring Break), HTTYD got a multiplier of 5 but even it dropped by about 30% after the end of SB:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=howtotrainyourdragon.htm

 

I'm not sure why you would expect a movie to have a sub 30% hold from one inflated week (summer weekedys, New Year holidays, Spring break) to one without such an advantage. Weekdays will drop hard no matter what (since people don't have those days off anymore) and that will drag down the overall weekly hold, so it's through the weekend holds that you can see whether a movie still has gunpower left and Zootopia so far has been holding like no other (so to speak). This week will also have a sub 30% drop btw (it's currently down 31.7% without even including Wednesday or Thursday gross).

 

As for when the inevitable 50% drop will happen, I guess it will happen once the DVD/Blu ray is released in June and by then it most likely won't matter that much. I think AIW2 will lead to a steeper than usual drop but not quite 50% (it didn't fall by 50% against JB and AIW will likely open lower). This weekend won't drop by more than 50% even with CW thanks to double features. You can check how previous Disney flicks fared the first week of May when they had a Marvel tentpole released:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=18&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2013&wknd=18&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=18&p=.htm

 

(Jorn Carter in 2012, Oz The Great And Powerful in 2013 and Cinderella in 2015).

 

 

Welcome!

I think there's a huge detail you forgot. It's true that IO didn't have Summer weekdays late in its run, but then again it was made available on Homevideo very late (November or December iirc) while Zootopia will be released on DVD/Bluray in early June so that'll kill its legs after that and prevent it from benefitting from summer weekdays at all.

 

@No Prisoners We're talking about DOM, not Japan. Zootopia obviously won't last till July in Japan.

This is the Japan thread and I still don't know what your talking about.

IO had 8 weeks of summer, I would consider that late, in both Japan, mid July to mid September and domestic, late June to late August

Zoo isn't going to make summer money in either market as well. 

[edroger3]

 

[fastclock]

So, Thursday is not really a holiday?

[edroger3]

19 minutes ago, fastclock said:

So, Thursday is not really a holiday?

May 5 is "Children's Day", that should be the biggest day in GW for childish movie (in fact was the biggest single day in Frozen's run)

 

From Wikipedia:

"Children's Day (こどもの日 Kodomo no Hi^?) is a Japanese national holiday which takes place annually on May 5, the fifth day of the fifth month, and is part of Golden Week. It is a day set aside to respect children's personalities and to celebrate their happiness. It was designated a national holiday by the Japanese government in 1948. It has been a day of celebration in Japan since ancient times."

 

Btw, as I said before, we have had two holiday discounted days in past four. Some moviegoers could have see the film in Sun and/or in Wed instead of today. In fact Sun and Wed are the biggest days for Zootopia. In any case today is lower also than tuesday, this couldn't be a good sign.

Edited May 5, 2016 by edroger3

[LMAbacus]

47 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

In any case today is lower also than tuesday, this couldn't be a good sign.

 

A bad sign for Zootopia? Almost every single movie dropped from Tuesday, including the decidedly childish Crayon Shin-Chan. Zootopia actually had one of the lowest drops in attendance.

 

-4.5% Zootopia

-13.1% Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare
-19.6% Captain America: Civil War
-10.2% Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World
4.6% Chihayafuru - Part 2
-12.2% I Am a Hero
-12.4% Terra Formars
-28.3% The Revenant

[LMAbacus]

5 hours ago, Agafin said:

This weekend won't drop by more than 50% even with CW thanks to double features. You can check how previous Disney flicks fared the first week of May when they had a Marvel tentpole released:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=18&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2013&wknd=18&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=18&p=.htm

 

@No Prisoners(Jorn Carter in 2012, Oz The Great And Powerful in 2013 and Cinderella in 2015).

 

The difference is that in those cases, the movie in question was the second-biggest Disney movie at the time, not the third. Jungle Book will be the Disney movie getting double features, not Zootopia.

[Quigley]

What should we expect from Friday. Will it be similar to last Monday or simialr to the Monday before that?

[Planodisney]

On May 3, 2016 at 11:16 AM, fastclock said:

 

 

[Planodisney]

Sorry about above mispost.

But could someone provide a summary on Zootopias Japanese run. 

From the current discussion I can't tell if it's having a terrible, below average, mediocre, good or great run.

Is it showing any signs yet of catching on in Japan

Thanks

[Quigley]

31 minutes ago, Planodisney said:

Sorry about above mispost.

But could someone provide a summary on Zootopias Japanese run. 

From the current discussion I can't tell if it's having a terrible, below average, mediocre, good or great run.

Is it showing any signs yet of catching on in Japan

Thanks

 

I think most people here will consider a success anything that makes Zootopia reach $1B. That is, to be fair, not an objective way of discussing Zootopia's Japanese run but it has preoccupied the discussion. Blockbuster levels for Japan or around 5B yen and only two Disney films (Big Hero 6 and Frozen) have done more than that. Zootopia will probably do more than that but it won't be enough to reach $1B.