JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[FrozenUnicorn]

Wow, some big discrepancies with the weekday numbers.

 

Estimates - Actuals

 

Mon - 1.1m - 1.268m

Tues- 0.77m - 0.972m

Wed - 1.68m - 2.345

Thur - 0.72m - 0.814

 

Last week

 

Mon - 1.02m

Tues - 0.85m

Wed - 2.546m

Thur - 0.882m

Fri - 1.024

 

Those are huge differences, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday was off enough to go from a  drop to a 12% increase

The actuals continue to be higher than estimates, go Frozen!

 

Weren't the estimates for Japan initially $90-100M at the highest?  Now look where we are!

[KZ-boy]

Wow, some big discrepancies with the weekday numbers.

 

Estimates - Actuals

 

Mon - 1.1m - 1.268m

Tues- 0.77m - 0.972m

Wed - 1.68m - 2.345

Thur - 0.72m - 0.814

 

Last week

 

Mon - 1.02m

Tues - 0.85m

Wed - 2.546m

Thur - 0.882m

Fri - 1.024

 

Those are huge differences, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday was off enough to go from a  drop to a 12% increase

WOW! I suggest, Frozen will definitely increase his weekend boxoffice gross.

350 million is possible

Edited May 23, 2014 by KZ-boy

[mfantin65]

Does that mean these numbers are underestimated? They add up to $4.27M.

those number are pretty tight. Sunday always seems 1m short and Friday 1m long. There are no daily actuals, my numbers are from the admissions of the 4 chains which have been consistently 35-36% market share.

Edited May 23, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

 Adm Est x 2.85:  Last weeks numbers were very close with this multiplier. IDK about screen daily.

Wed TMK1: 16780 47823 down 17%

Thu TMK1: 22566 64313 down 3.6%

 
1.10m Mon +12%

0.77m Tue -2%

1.68m Wed -10%

0.72m Thu -17%

0.96m Fri -3.6%

 

186.43m Total
 
Projection
7.4m +/- 5% weekend. Wed weakness may indicate a drop 5-10%
194.0m Total
 
Projected Range
276m Certain---- 12x last weekend is the floor
316m Likely------ 18x My gut here says  HP7.2 #4WW beat
361m Possible--- 24x E.T. beaten first run 
401m Domestic-- 30x Within the realm of "anything is f-ing possible", like IM3 going down once was and now is foregone

[rhfqkddl45]

Friday 5/23 Admissions [Last Week - Today]

 

Toho...12901--11953 -7.4%  (x3.35 - x2.755)

109.....3085---3108 +0.7%  (x2.91 - x2.77) 

Kinezo..2882---2491 -15.6% (x3.06 - x3.14) 

Movix...4413---4843 +9.7%  (x3.37 - x3.15) 

 

*actual total..23413--22566 -3.62% (x3.27 - x2.89)

 

 

*() rate of increase (2:30pm-00:25am)

 

 

 

Note: Compare Admissions [Mon-Fri]

 

*4 Chains Total

Last Week....144,520

This Week....133,861 -7.4%

 

 

*Toho

Last Week...83,049

This Week...72,912 -12.2%

 

*109

Last Week...18,350

This Week...18,621 +1.4%

 

*Kinezo

Last Week...16,914

This Week...15,023 -11.2%

 

*Movix

Last Week...26,002

This Week...27,110 +4.2%

Edited May 23, 2014 by Hans13

[catlover]

Evening shows are much weaker today. At Toho, the multiplier is only x2.755 compared to x3.35 last week. I wonder why.

[rhfqkddl45]

Note: Saturday Admissions [2:30pm-7:00pm-00:30am]

 

 

*4 Chains Total

Wk-9...45751--78130--95293

LastWk.46520--78177--94012

 

 

*Toho

Wk-9...23741--41015--50503

LastWk.25389--43116--51979

 

*109

Wk-9...9866---15505--18022

LastWk.7117---11249--12973

 

*Kinezo

Wk-9....5306---8656---10710

LastWk..5361---9285---11377

 

*Movix

Wk-9....6838---12954--16058

LastWK..8653---14527--17527

Edited May 24, 2014 by Hans13

[Ray]

The actuals continue to be higher than estimates, go Frozen!  Weren't the estimates for Japan initially $90-100M at the highest?  Now look where we are!

I remember when I first came to this thread, I said $100 million was a guaranteed minimum and that $150 million seemed like a reasonable target. Everyone laughed, cited Monsters University as the ceiling combined with Frozen's spring release date, and said I was crazy, and that $60 million was more likely, with $80-90 million as an optimistic ceiling.

[pepsa]

In the begin MU2 was the target and TOY3 was the ceiling.

[mfantin65]

Wow, some big discrepancies with the weekday numbers.

 

Estimates - Actuals

 

Mon - 1.1m - 1.268m

Tues- 0.77m - 0.972m

Wed - 1.68m - 2.345

Thur - 0.72m - 0.814

 

Last week

 

Mon - 1.02m

Tues - 0.85m

Wed - 2.546m

Thur - 0.882m

Fri - 1.024

 

Those are huge differences, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday was off enough to go from a  drop to a 12% increase

Ok. Finally had a chance to look at this. The 5.3m for the midweek is coming from the difference between the sunday estimate of 805.8 and the Thu actual of 811.1m. Sunday was  just an estimate and  a million short. Wed cannot be 2.5m. Edroger applies the same multiplier to each day. Wed tix are mostly $11, about $12 average. Other weekdays are about $15. Wed is under 2m. 

the week is close to 5.2 including friday. The TMK1x has been accurate.

 

How are pre sales hans?

 

Dum dum dum ta.  feel the tension for Sat numbers?

Edited May 23, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[LABAS]

 

Ok. Finally had a chance to look at this. The 5.3m for the midweek is coming from the difference between the sunday estimate of 805.8 and the Thu actual of 811.1m. Sunday was  just an estimate and  a million short. Wed cannot be 2.5m. Edroger applies the same multiplier to each day. Wed tix are mostly $11, about $12 average. Other weekdays are about $15. Wed is under 2m. 

the week is close to 5.2 including friday. The TMK1x has been accurate.

 

How are pre sales hans?

 

Dum dum dum ta.  feel the tension for Sat numbers?

 

Like last Saturday, we see  50% and 80% saturation in some theaters.

Hope we can see the  bump later.

[mfantin65]

*4 Chains Total

Last Week....144,520

This Week....133,861 -7.4%

TMK1 = 133861 - 5500(discount boost) × 2.85(mrkt share 35%)= 392,460 + 5500 = 397,960.

Admissions for the week so far are 397,960.

The discount tix cannot be multiplied to get total but are added back in.

[rhfqkddl45]

Presales Numbers 5/24 (Sat) - Toho  some Theaters

 

 

*Shibuya 

-Today 5/24_____ 1040 / 1485 - 70%

-Last Sat 5/17__ 1168 / 1485 - 78.6%

 

*Yurakucho/Hibiya 

-Today 5/24_______ 582 / 3270 - 17.8% 

-Last Sat 5/17____ 694 / 3270 - 21.1% 

 

*Roppongi Hills

-Today 5/24________ 596 / 4195 - 14.2%

-Last Sat 5/17_____ 696 / 3687 - 18.8%

 

 

*Nihonbashi  

-Today 5/24 ______ 781 / 3826 - 20.4%

-Last Sat 5/17____ 895 / 4098 - 21.8%

 

 

*4 Theaters Total

-Today 5/24 ______ 2999 / 12776 - 23.4% 

-Last Sat 5/17____ 3453 / 12540 - 26.5% (Toho 51979 x15.05) 

 

 

*Prediction (Toho Admissions)...43500--48500

 

 

-Saturday 5/3_____ 5630 / 11864 - 47.4% (Toho 82960 x14.7)

-Sunday 5/18______ 3837 / 11670 - 32.8% (Toho 61998 x16.15)

-Sunday 5/11______ 3846 / 9134  - 42.1% (Toho 57118 x14.85)

-Sunday 5/4_______ 7150 / 10106 - 70.7% (Toho 96537 x13.5)

 

anyway, 50000+ are possible range. 

Edited May 24, 2014 by Hans13

[rhfqkddl45]

Note: Saturday--Sunday 

 

*4 Chains Total

Wk-9.....95,293--104,018 (x1.09)

LastWk...94,012--112,529 (x1.196)

 

*Toho

Wk-6...56,713--68,963 (x1.215)

Wk-7...56,390--68,906 (x1.221)

Wk-9...50,503--57,118 (x1.13)

LastWk.51,979--61,998 (x1.193)

 

.

[Ajipon]

Dag dig dug kembang kuncupWill we see a fall, or will it continue to fly defying gravity... I can't wait to see...

[Incarnadine]

Dag dig dug kembang kuncupWill we see a fall, or will it continue to fly defying gravity... I can't wait to see...

More like "Will Frozen finally Let It Go, or will it continue Defying Gravity?" ;)

[mfantin65]

Sat 1430Movix.....2430109.........6018 -15%Kinezo...4712 -12%Toho......22161 -13%Movix reporting error

Edited May 24, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[LABAS]

Something wrong with todaymovix number. It only calculate one-thirdof the seats and showtimes for each movie.

[mfantin65]

13.5% drop on 3 chains6.8-7.0 weekend but evening and sunday could improve.not bad when you consider its only a 3% average drop over the last two weeks. Last week was a surprise anomoly maybe.

Edited May 24, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[newberry]

Today is a field day in Japan. So 13.5% drop is not bad.