JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Olive]

Rurouni Kenshin 1st day previews：90M yen.

Edited August 22, 2012 by Olive

[Caladbolg]

How reliable is Tokyohive? They're saying TA could wind up with $63m US:

‘The Amazing Spider-Man‘ is still struggling to reach the 3 billion Yen (38 million USD) mark and ‘The Dark Knight Rises‘ has yet to crack 2 billion Yen (25 million USD), but it looks like ‘The Avengers’ will go straight for 5 billion Yen (63 million USD).

http://www.tokyohive.com/2012/08/japan-box-office-report-%E2%80%93-august-18th19th/

I would love for that to happen, but that seems kind of high compared to what some have said here.

[Olive]

How reliable is Tokyohive? They're saying TA could wind up with $63m US:http://www.tokyohive...ugust-18th19th/I would love for that to happen, but that seems kind of high compared to what some have said here.

That's too optimistic.

[bballman24]

We'll know in a few days but very very optimistic projection.

[John Marston]

Anyone know why ASM and TDKR are showing poor longevity in Japan? Hell, what Hollywood movie this year really did have longevity

[Tower]

Anyone know why ASM and TDKR are showing poor longevity in Japan? Hell, what Hollywood movie this year really did have longevity

Mission Impossible did

[fmpro]

How reliable is Tokyohive? They're saying TA could wind up with $63m US:http://www.tokyohive...ugust-18th19th/I would love for that to happen, but that seems kind of high compared to what some have said here.

Very optemistic.. But i would love that number

[druv10]

How reliable is Tokyohive? They're saying TA could wind up with $63m US:http://www.tokyohive...ugust-18th19th/I would love for that to happen, but that seems kind of high compared to what some have said here.

Maybe Corpse, can give more of insight. 63M would be freaking awesome.

That's too optimistic.

Optimistic sure but it would be nice to see TA hitting 900M OS. TA's still kicking ass and taking names.

[Corpse]

How reliable is Tokyohive? They're saying TA could wind up with $63m US:http://www.tokyohive...ugust-18th19th/I would love for that to happen, but that seems kind of high compared to what some have said here.

Reliable, but they report what the domestic press releases. Little to nothing HPreist writes is done by research. The studio is expecting 5 billion yen ($63 million), but the studios almost always overpredict everything in the market. I don't know if it's a marketing strategy to do so or what, but year after year it's always the same. One out of ten projections from studios might turn out right.

[lab276]

THG is releasing in about a month's time. I assume it's going to be dumped. How much do you see for it?

[Corpse]

THG is releasing in about a month's time. I assume it's going to be dumped. How much do you see for it?

Unfortunately Kadokawa Pictures is the distributor which severely limits it's potential. Earlier this year 'Sadako 3D' became their first film in 3 or 4 years to reach the 1 billion yen mark. Reviews I've seen are also quite bad (could just be Battle Royale faithful submitting reviews though). Maybe 1 billion yen, but don't be expect much. It's likely to go down the same path as Twilight (unknown/unpopular books, small distributor, etc.) did in the market.

[iceroll]

Damn it, that sucks. I really want the CF/MJ films to do well in Japan.

[druv10]

Reliable, but they report what the domestic press releases. Little to nothing HPreist writes is done by research. The studio is expecting 5 billion yen ($63 million), but the studios almost always overpredict everything in the market. I don't know if it's a marketing strategy to do so or what, but year after year it's always the same. One out of ten projections from studios might turn out right.

Thanks, so TA has 10% shot at 63M. :)

[lab276]

Unfortunately Kadokawa Pictures is the distributor which severely limits it's potential. Earlier this year 'Sadako 3D' became their first film in 3 or 4 years to reach the 1 billion yen mark. Reviews I've seen are also quite bad (could just be Battle Royale faithful submitting reviews though). Maybe 1 billion yen, but don't be expect much. It's likely to go down the same path as Twilight (unknown/unpopular books, small distributor, etc.) did in the market.

I thought as much.

[Corpse]

Still, if it can gross maybe $1/2 million more in the US and the OS total is updated a few million higher, Japan's gross could push it to $700 million WW.

[lab276]

Are there any links to the reviews you mentioned?

Edited August 23, 2012 by lab276

[druv10]

Corpse since we're unlikely to get an update for TA until Sunday, what kind of drops do movie see after Obon Holidays? Do they have weekly drop as much as 50% or 60% or more? What kind of drop did SM3 and NATM had since they had similar opening pattern to TA?I know, I'm bothering you too much with TA but I'm just astonished by the Japanese BO and adding TA was adding more fuel to the fire.

Edited August 23, 2012 by druv10

[Corpse]

Olive already posted some of this week's updates, but here they are again with a few more details thrown in.

Mid-Week Report:

'Umizaru 4' exceeds 5 million admissions, becoming the first film since 'Harry Potter 7.2' last year to reach the mark, and the first 2D release since 'Bayside Shakedown 3' and 'Arrietty' in 2010. After 41 days, it's gross exceeded ¥6.3 billion ($80 million). At this pace, it'll likely hit ¥7 billion ($90 million) before September.

'Madagascar 3' exceeds ¥1.5 billion ($19 million) after 21 days. It becomes the highest grossing Dreamworks film since 'Kung Fu Panda' in 2008. Also, it marks the first time since 'Shrek 2' that a Dreamworks sequel has ever increased over it's predecessors.

'Rurouni Kenshin', opening nationwide on Saturday, posted good preview figures on Wednesday of about ¥90 million ($1.1 million). An encouraging sign for the weekend.

[Corpse]

Are there any links to the reviews you mentioned?

(3.4/5) http://info.movies.yahoo.co.jp/detail/tymv/id341959/(56/100) http://cinema.pia.co.jp/title/158718/(2.0/5) http://eiga.com/movie/57839/

Corpse since we're unlikely to get an update for TA until Sunday, what kind of drops do movie see after Obon Holidays? Do they have weekly drop as much as 50% or 60% or more? What kind of drop did SM3 and NATM had since they had similar opening pattern to TA?I know, I'm bothering you too much with TA but I'm just astonished by the Japanese BO and adding TA was adding more fuel to the fire.

LOL. It's alright, I don't mind answering questions. We may get some updates before the Weekend. There is sort of an update today, actually. Sometimes data for Ladies' Day (every Wednesday) is released but calculating it can be off sometimes. It has 'The Avengers' dropping a hefty 49.5% when compared to the average of it's Saturday and Sunday. The average would be 251 million yen ($3.2 million), making it's Wednesday gross approx. 125 million yen ($1.6 million). All of this data is very much estimates, keep in mind.Night at the Museum 2 dropped 49%, Spider-Man 3 dropped 51% in their second weekends after their 5/6-day holiday week openings.

[Corpse]

Would you guys like me to report Wednesday estimates (very much estimates) when the data is made available each week? I never have because it's based on admissions and calculating them is a bit inaccurate because: 1. Wednesday all females get 50% off their tickets, 2. Average ticket prices for every film changes slightly each week, usually dropping a bit each time, and 3. Sometimes it's not a good indicator on what a film might do on the weekend since females make up a much larger majority on Wednesdays.