JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[druv10]

(3.4/5) http://info.movies.y.../tymv/id341959/(56/100) http://cinema.pia.co.jp/title/158718/(2.0/5) http://eiga.com/movie/57839/LOL. It's alright, I don't mind answering questions. We may get some updates before the Weekend. There is sort of an update today, actually. Sometimes data for Ladies' Day (every Wednesday) is released but calculating it can be off sometimes. It has 'The Avengers' dropping a hefty 49.5% when compared to the average of it's Saturday and Sunday. The average would be 251 million yen ($3.2 million), making it's Wednesday gross approx. 125 million yen ($1.6 million). All of this data is very much estimates, keep in mind.Night at the Museum 2 dropped 49%, Spider-Man 3 dropped 51% in their second weekends after their 5/6-day holiday week openings.

So TA has made 17.49M + 1.6M = 19.1M + Mon/Tuesday gross = ? Fair to say TA has passed 20M and it's more likely around 22M.

[Corpse]

Wednesday is much bigger than the other weekdays, and can be on par with a Saturday or Sunday for films that skew female or family films during certain times of the year (which is why data for Wednesday is sometimes released). I'd say it's at 1.6 billion ($20.5 million) as of Wednesday.There is a question for the regular visitors of this thread at the bottom of page 40.

Edited August 23, 2012 by Corpse

[druv10]

Wednesday is much bigger than the other weekdays, and can be on par with a Saturday or Sunday for films that skew female or family films during certain times of the year (which is why data for Wednesday is sometimes released). I'd say it's at 1.6 billion ($20.5 million) as of Wednesday.There is a question for the regular visitors of this thread at the bottom of page 40.

Thanks, I would be fine with you posting the Wednesday numbers.

[Fake]

Hoping for a small drop for Avengers this weekend.It really has a solid chance of becoming the #2 Hollywood movie of the year. 9 months ago, nobody would have thought this possible.

[druv10]

Hoping for a small drop for Avengers this weekend.It really has a solid chance of becoming the #2 Hollywood movie of the year. 9 months ago, nobody would have thought this possible.

Are you sure about number 2? MI4 made 70M+ and TH1 should make more.

[Corpse]

Being a December release, The Hobbit will be a 2013 release.

[Corpse]

Aug. 21

Wednesday Estimates (Ladies' Day)

Rank - Gross - Film - Dis. - Day in Release

1 ¥125 million ($1.6 million) :: The Avengers :: Disney :: 9

2 ¥107 million ($1.3 million) :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: Toho :: 33

3 ¥91 million ($1.2 million) :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: Toho :: 41

4 ¥81 million ($1.0 million) :: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted :: Paramount :: 21

5 ¥55 million ($700,000) :: Pokemon: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman :: Toho :: 40

6 ¥30 million ($380,000) :: Total Recall :: FOX :: 13

7 ¥26 million ($330,000) :: Kamen Rider Fourze: Everyone, Space is Here! :: TOEI :: 19

8 ¥23 million ($290,000) :: Naruto: Road to Ninja :: Toho :: 26

9 ¥20 million ($250,000) :: The Dark Knight Rises :: Warner Bros. :: 26

10 ¥14 million ($180,000) :: Fairy Tail: Priestess of the Phoenix :: Shochiku :: 5

Note: Wednesday is Ladies' Day, making it the biggest weekday. Films that skew female obviously benefit the most, and also during the summer and any time school is out, family films perform especially well on Wednesdays, too. When school is in though, family films are generally the weakest during the weekdays.

Edited August 23, 2012 by Corpse

[fmpro]

Thanks, I would be fine with you posting the Wednesday numbers.

Same here when theres a big hollywood just opening

[Olive]

Big drop on Mon-Tues?I read from Japanese BBS that TA showings will decrease a lot this weekend.

[Corpse]

It was always going to see sizable drops after opening during one of the three biggest weeks of the year. Even if a film had the best WOM in a decade, it couldn't avoid such drops so soon under those conditions. After a week or so it should stabilize, though. It makes sense that showings will be reduced a lot this weekend (however, the screen count will barely be effected if at all). Last weekend it made up 24% of all showings in the country and it was the only major release, and the holdovers had been in release for at least a month.

[lab276]

How's the split between local and foreign movies looking now? Has Hollywood made any sort of comeback?

[Olive]

OK， thanks for explanation.

[JCS]

Thanks for the TA updates, like the Wednesday estimates too.

[Corpse]

How's the split between local and foreign movies looking now? Has Hollywood made any sort of comeback?

A small increase in market share over the Summer.As of August 21, only including films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more (and also including films that are near 1 billion yen) the breakdown looks like:Japanese Films :: 67 billion yen ($850 million) - 66.3%Imported Films :: 34 million yen ($430 million) - 33.7%Before the Summer, Imported Films were barely managing a 30% market share. And I believe films that gross 1 billion yen or more usually represent 85% of the yearly box office. Edited August 23, 2012 by Corpse

[fmpro]

Is it possible that TA will reach 1,5B nexT sunday thanks to Japan

[Corpse]

Weekend Forecast

August 25-26

1 (-) ¥300 million ($3.8 million) :: Prometheus :: FOX :: NEW

2 (1) ¥285 million ($3.6 million) :: The Avengers :: Disney :: Week 2

3 (-) ¥270 million ($3.4 million) :: Rurouni Kenshin :: Toho :: NEW

4 (2) ¥170 million ($2.1 million) :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: Toho :: Week 7

5 (3) ¥160 million ($2.0 million) :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: Toho :: Week 6

6 (-) ¥140 million ($1.8 million) :: Dear (To You) :: Toho :: NEW

7 (4) ¥100 million ($1.2 million) :: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted :: Paramount :: Week 4

8 (5) ¥75 million ($950,000) :: Pokemon: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman :: Toho :: Week 7

9 (6) ¥60 million ($750,000) :: Total Recall :: FOX :: Week

10 (7) ¥55 million ($700,000) :: Kamen Rider Fourze: Everyone, Space is Here! :: TOEI :: Week 4

There will be two different races this weekend.

The first race is for the top spot between 'Prometheus', 'Rurouni Kenshin', and 'The Avengers' second weekend. All three films will likely fall somewhere between ¥250-300 million. 'Prometheus' has had previews all month long, but so far this year, no previews have been included into opening weekends.

The second race is to decide which film between 'Umizaru 4', 'Wolf Children', and 'Dear' will miss the Top 5 this weekend.

Projected Totals after Sunday (¥1 billion+):

'Umizaru 4' ~¥6.5-6.6 billion ($83-84 million); 5.2 million admissions after 45 days.

'Wolf Children' ~¥3.4-3.5 billion ($43-44 million); 2.8 million admissions after 37 days.

'Pokemon 15' ~¥3.2-3.3 billion ($41-42 million); 3.1 million admissions after 44 days.

'Avengers' ~¥2.1-2.2 billion ($26-27 million); 1.4 million admissions after 13 days.

'Madagascar 3' ~¥1.7-1.8 billion ($21-22 million); 1.4 million admissions after 26 days.

"Kamen Rider' ~¥1.1-1.2 billion ($13-14 million); 900,000 admissions after 23 days.

Edited August 24, 2012 by Corpse

[druv10]

Weekend Forecast

August 25-26

1 (-) ¥300 million ($3.8 million) :: Prometheus :: FOX :: NEW

2 (1) ¥285 million ($3.6 million) :: The Avengers :: Disney :: Week 2

3 (-) ¥270 million ($3.4 million) :: Rurouni Kenshin :: Toho :: NEW

4 (2) ¥170 million ($2.1 million) :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: Toho :: Week 7

5 (3) ¥160 million ($2.0 million) :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: Toho :: Week 6

6 (-) ¥140 million ($1.8 million) :: Dear (To You) :: Toho :: NEW

7 (4) ¥100 million ($1.2 million) :: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted :: Paramount :: Week 4

8 (5) ¥75 million ($950,000) :: Pokemon: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman :: Toho :: Week 7

9 (6) ¥60 million ($750,000) :: Total Recall :: FOX :: Week

10 (7) ¥55 million ($700,000) :: Kamen Rider Fourze: Everyone, Space is Here! :: TOEI :: Week 4

There will be two different races this weekend.

The first race is for the top spot between 'Prometheus', 'Rurouni Kenshin', and 'The Avengers' second weekend. All three films will likely fall somewhere between ¥250-300 million. 'Prometheus' has had previews all month long, but so far this year, no previews have been included into opening weekends.

The second race is to decide which film between 'Umizaru 4', 'Wolf Children', and 'Dear' will miss the Top 5 this weekend.

Projected Totals after Sunday (¥1 billion+):

'Umizaru 4' ~¥6.5-6.6 billion ($83-84 million); 5.2 million admissions after 45 days.

'Wolf Children' ~¥3.4-3.5 billion ($43-44 million); 2.8 million admissions after 37 days.

'Pokemon 15' ~¥3.2-3.3 billion ($41-42 million); 3.1 million admissions after 44 days.

'Avengers' ~¥2.1-2.2 billion ($26-27 million); 1.4 million admissions after 13 days.

'Madagascar 3' ~¥1.7-1.8 billion ($21-22 million); 1.4 million admissions after 26 days.

"Kamen Rider' ~¥1.1-1.2 billion ($13-14 million); 900,000 admissions after 23 days.

Thanks as always Corpse. You're expecting a 43% drop for TA while SM3 had 51% and NATM had a 49% so pretty good hold for it. :)

[lab276]

A small increase in market share over the Summer.As of August 21, only including films that have grossed 1 billion yen or more (and also including films that are near 1 billion yen) the breakdown looks like:Japanese Films :: 67 billion yen ($850 million) - 66.3%Imported Films :: 34 million yen ($430 million) - 33.7%Before the Summer, Imported Films were barely managing a 30% market share. And I believe films that gross 1 billion yen or more usually represent 85% of the yearly box office.

Thank you. Based on that, I'd estimate somewhere around 95m tickets sold, which seems kinda low.

[Olive]

China will beat Japan easily this year.Chinese BO has crossed 10 billion yuan ($1.58B)mark by mid-August.

[Fake]

I hope Avengers drops under 40% and beats Prometheus.