JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Corpse]

[LABAS]

発売前に予约だけでミリオンセラーとなっていたが、２０日の时点で２０１万４４９５枚を売り上げた。さらにレンタル回数も同日に１００万回を突破し、オン デマンドでも１４万视聴を超えるヒットとなった。剧场版「アナと雪の女王」は３月１４日に日本公开され、１９日までに兴行収入２５０亿円を突破、観客动员 は２０００万人に迫る势いだ。　また、メンバーズサイト「ＭｏｖｉｅＮＥＸＣＬＵＢ」への登录数は既に３０万以上、ＭｏｖｉｅＮＥＸの机能の一つであるスマホやタブレットなどで本编视聴が楽しめるデジタルコピーの利用も１２万件に及んでいる

 

 

If not mistaken, the digital copy is included in this number. The movienex has sold 201, 4495 copies as of July 20.

This storm is all the rage...

[Corpse]

Godzilla looks pretty healthy so far today (Friday opening), but nothing indicating it's going to see a huge opening this weekend.

 

My early projection for Friday is ¥150-175 million ($1.5-1.7 million).  Friday's normally account for around 20% of the 3-day take (+/-5% for adult/kid films), so an opening weekend of ¥450-550 million ($4.5/5.5 million) with a 3-day total of ¥600-700 million ($6/7 million) perhaps based on Friday's ticket sales so far.  I'd lean closer to the low-end of both ranges though to account for any old fans of the franchise coming out early.    

 

I haven't checked Saturday pre-sales yet though.

 

An opening in this range would get it to ¥3.5-4 billion ($35/40 million) with normal Summer legs.    

Edited July 25, 2014 by Corpse

[Mojoguy]

Corpse, which movie do you think will be the next 250 million dollar grosser in Japan?

[Rsyu]

Edge of tomorrow looks like it's struggling, does it still have a chance at $20 million?

[keysersoze123]

 

Godzilla looks pretty healthy so far today (Friday opening), but nothing indicating it's going to see a huge opening this weekend.

 

My early projection for Friday is ¥150-175 million ($1.5-1.7 million).  Friday's normally account for around 20% of the 3-day take (+/-5% for adult/kid films), so an opening weekend of ¥450-550 million ($4.5/5.5 million) with a 3-day total of ¥600-700 million ($6/7 million) perhaps based on Friday's ticket sales so far.  I'd lean closer to the low-end of both ranges though to account for any old fans of the franchise coming out early.    

 

I haven't checked Saturday pre-sales yet though.

 

An opening in this range would get it to ¥3.5-4 billion ($35/40 million) with normal Summer legs.    

 

 

I think that should be enough to win the weekend and break disney's streak.

[KushAboveAll]

Corpse, is it possible for a multiplier of around 6-8x for godzilla since its legs in us was terribad even though legs in japan should be good?

[BadAtGender]

Corpse, which movie do you think will be the next 250 million dollar grosser in Japan?

 

I think he indicated a couple months ago that we may not see anything pass 20b again this decade, or possibly ever. Frozen could be the last.

[Mojoguy]

I think he indicated a couple months ago that we may not see anything pass 20b again this decade, or possibly ever. Frozen could be the last.

Do you mean because of Japan's expected population decline in the next few years?

[BadAtGender]

Do you mean because of Japan's expected population decline in the next few years?

 

It's already declining. It hit a peak in 2010 and is slightly below that mark. There's nothing to indicate this trend will change.

 

Besides that, the population is aging, which will probably mean a relative decrease in movie-going, per capita. (Though Japan is already not an especially movie-going country.)

 

And even though there was the ticket price hike earlier this year, it seems like there's a lot of resistance to increased ticket prices, which prevents inflation from causing future movies to gross more.

 

So, unless there is another huge outlier like Frozen, it doesn't seem likely that any film will cross the 20b threshold again. I suppose if Miyazaki comes out of retirement and does something that really captures the public conscience that could do it, but outside of that...

 

Of course, it's entirely possible a film could gross more than $200m in the future, despite the population trends. If the dollar gets especially weak, a lower Japanese gross could lead to hitting that mark. Avatar 2, for instance, could get something around the gross of the first and possibly do it, depending on the exchange rate.

[Corpse]

Godzilla did really well yesterday (Friday).  I'm thinking 120-130,000 admissions and 175 million ($1.7 million) for the day.  This should be strong enough to lock up an opening above 500 million ($5 million+), though 600 million ($6 million+) seems reasonable, too, unless a lot of old fans already turned up.  It should have a easy path to opening at #1 either way. 

 

 

As for the next $200/250 million film.... I think we'll have to wait a really long time and everything on the horizon will be lucky to earn half that amount.  

 

Avatar 2 will need a big admissions increase to beat the first film.  I don't see it honestly, and expect it to drop-off like nearly every sequel to a major-blockbuster does.  The first Avatar was largely an event film in theaters (and in 3D) only.  Its DVD/Blu-ray sales were low compared to its box-office, and tv ratings have never been that strong when it's aired.  Same for Finding Nemo 2.  

 

Simply put, it's incredibly unlikely to ever be a sequel.  Except for Bayside Shakedown 2 and Harry Potter 2/3, original films dominate the top 20/25 highest-grossing films chart.

 

Mamoru Hosoda's films have been increasing exponentially at the box-office, and his last, The Wolf Children, became the highest-grossing non-brand (Disney/Ghibli/etc.) animated film ever.  His last three films have all be major critical successes, too, having swept the animation categories every time.  His next film should be released in 2015/2016, so it could have a very slight chance.

 

A future film by Takashi Yamazaki.  He's becoming one of Japan's most-successful directors, both critically and at the box-office.  His last film, The Eternal Zero, was a major success and the 3rd most-attended local live-action film ever.  He has a full schedule of adapted films coming up in the next year or two though, but he definitely has the potential to deliver something original that captivates audiences.  Keep an eye on him.  

[alee7915]

Godzilla did really well yesterday (Friday).  I'm thinking 120-130,000 admissions and 175 million ($1.7 million) for the day.  This should be strong enough to lock up an opening above 500 million ($5 million+), though 600 million ($6 million+) seems reasonable, too, unless a lot of old fans already turned up.  It should have a easy path to opening at #1 either way. 

 

 

As for the next $200/250 million film.... I think we'll have to wait a really long time and everything on the horizon will be lucky to earn half that amount.  

 

Avatar 2 will need a big admissions increase to beat the first film.  I don't see it honestly, and expect it to drop-off like nearly every sequel to a major-blockbuster does.  The first Avatar was largely an event film in theaters (and in 3D) only.  Its DVD/Blu-ray sales were low compared to its box-office, and tv ratings have never been that strong when it's aired.  Same for Finding Nemo 2.  

 

Simply put, it's incredibly unlikely to ever be a sequel.  Except for Bayside Shakedown 2 and Harry Potter 2/3, original films dominate the top 20/25 highest-grossing films chart.

 

Mamoru Hosoda's films have been increasing exponentially at the box-office, and his last, The Wolf Children, became the highest-grossing non-brand (Disney/Ghibli/etc.) animated film ever.  His last three films have all be major critical successes, too, having swept the animation categories every time.  His next film should be released in 2015/2016, so it could have a very slight chance.

 

A future film by Takashi Yamazaki.  He's becoming one of Japan's most-successful directors, both critically and at the box-office.  His last film, The Eternal Zero, was a major success and the 3rd most-attended local live-action film ever.  He has a full schedule of adapted films coming up in the next year or two though, but he definitely has the potential to deliver something original that captivates audiences.  Keep an eye on him.  

 

Corpse, what is your estimation for Godzilla in Japan's entire run? 

[alee7915]

Do you mean because of Japan's expected population decline in the next few years?

"Japan's population has been shrinking for several years now. If current trends persist it will lose a third of its population in the next 50 years.

A quarter of the population is currently aged over 65 and that figure is expected to reach nearly 40% by 2060."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25566868

 

I am getting old too by 2060!   Any medicine which can keep me young?    

Edited July 25, 2014 by J LO

[Natsu Lian]

How much has Marnie and Pokemon each made respectively in the last 6-7 days?

[edroger3]

Frozen home video first 5 days:Over 2 millions Bluray/Dvd (MovieNex) soldOver 1 milion rentals140.000 views on Vod

[katniss]

"Cuiusvis hominis est errare: nullius nisi insipientis, in errore perseverare"

 

Marcus Tullius Cicero, Philippicae XII. 5

 

LOL.  Why are you calling yourself a fool?  Or is this your mea culpa admitting you were dead wrong?

 

It's ok bro, we've all been there.  It takes guts to come clean and admit your failures.  I give you credit. 

Edited July 25, 2014 by katniss

[Natsu Lian]

Maleficent may earn a total of $40,000,000 at the Japanese Box Office until it declines mid to late August due to other immensely anticipated films.  Marnie has a chance to earn $20,000,000 - $40,000,000 due to it's critical reception and Studio Ghibli's popularity.  Pokemon, Movie #17 may earn around $15,000,000- $25,000,000 in Japan and a few million dollars here in the States for a total worldwide gross of $27,000,000- $30,000,000.  Those aformentioned films are definitely staying in the Top 5 or 10 with Godzilla likely taking the top spot, Maleficent coming in second, Pokemon in third, and Marnie in fourth.  Frozen may surprise us and stay in the Top 10 but that's unlikely.

 

I see Maleficent taking in another $2-3 million, Pokemon taking in $1-2 million, and Marnie taking $1-2 million.

 

Maleficent - $34-36 million

Pokemon - $7-10 million

Marnie - $5-7 million

[Ajbg]

Maleficent may earn a total of $40,000,000 at the Japanese Box Office until it declines mid to late August due to other immensely anticipated films.  Marnie has a chance to earn $20,000,000 - $40,000,000 due to it's critical reception and Studio Ghibli's popularity.  Pokemon, Movie #17 may earn around $15,000,000- $25,000,000 in Japan and a few million dollars here in the States for a total worldwide gross of $27,000,000- $30,000,000.  Those aformentioned films are definitely staying in the Top 5 or 10 with Godzilla likely taking the top spot, Maleficent coming in second, Pokemon in third, and Marnie in fourth.  Frozen may surprise us and stay in the Top 10 but that's unlikely. I see Maleficent taking in another $2-3 million, Pokemon taking in $1-2 million, and Marnie taking $1-2 million. Maleficent - $34-36 millionPokemon - $7-10 millionMarnie - $5-7 million

Maleficent will have much more sunday. It already had 35 million thursday.I think it'll do 3.5 - 4 million friday- sunday.Then 38.5-39 million sunday.

[#ED]

Good run by Frozen!___________Japan Friends! Help a baby out!http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/15615-a-short-hello12-likes-away-from-a-star/

[Natsu Lian]

Good run by Frozen!___________Japan Friends! Help a baby out!http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/15615-a-short-hello12-likes-away-from-a-star/

Not just a "good" run, but a legendary one at that.  It'll be quite some time before Frozen's success is topped.