South Korea Box Office

[Nero]

12 minutes ago, Surajjj said:

Is it good?

Yeah it's great

[Nero]

When will we get 1st update? I'm so excited damn 😍😍😍

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, Nero said:

When will we get 1st update? I'm so excited damn 😍😍😍

It already hit 1M admissions!!!

[Stewart]

I'm AWAKE! Let's get this party Startedddddd   

6 hours ago, Fish&chips said:

Oh you guys still use the CGV admissions model haha. I got to say though, there was something enjoyable about seeing everyone lose their collective marbles at midnight korean time when numbers were released and we didn’t know CGV did hourly updates.  

We used it for Captain Marvel in prep for Endgame.

 

Really good start for Endgame, if it crossed 1m at 11:20 update, then perhaps CGV is not 50% of OD like it was for Marvel? Could be looking at 47% like the weekend. Here's the hourlies so far.

 

Wednesday, 24 April
Time	Adm.
Presales	431,000
09:20	443,000
10:20	452,000
11:20	463,000
12:20	475,000
13:20	489,000
14:20	505,000
15:20
16:20
17:20
18:20
19:20
20:20
21:20
22:20
23:20
Actual:

 

And here's the linear prediction based on Captain Marvel:

 

Predictions based on CM
Presales	1,892,509
09:20	1,807,487
10:20	1,751,223
11:20	1,707,737
12:20	1,659,089
13:20 14:20	1,610,389 1,552,208

The linear one is surprisingly quite good. It's decreasing at a consistent rate of 50k per hour, which would result in a final OD of 1.1m. Obviously if it passed 1m at 11am, it won't be doing 1.1m total.

 

My thoughts so far point to a 1.3-1.4m opening day. Also since it appears CGV is taking a lower % than CM, could probably add about 7% to what CM predicts per hour.

 

Full sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

[FlashMaster659]

What were IW admissions on OD?

[Sam]

5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

What were IW admissions on OD?

980k, 3rd all time behind Along with the Gods 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

[Fish&chips]

21 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Really good start for Endgame, if it crossed 1m at 11:20 update, then perhaps CGV is not 50% of OD like it was for Marvel? Could be looking at 47% like the weekend. Here's the hourlies so far.

 

Eh..hard to say. 1 million was reported at 11am but since it's a compilation of exhausted tickets and future presales of the day, it's difficult to say 1 million was crossed at that time. Saying that, CGV dailies seem to operating under the same routine, hence the small increases we're seeing (which I guess are walk ups). In the latter case I think you may be right and CGV represents slightly under 50% of total. 

 

 

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Fish&chips said:

Eh..hard to say. 1 million was reported at 11am but since it's a compilation of exhausted tickets and future presales of the day, it's difficult to say 1 million was crossed at that time. Saying that, CGV dailies seem to operating under the same routine, hence the small increases we're seeing (which I guess are walk ups). In the latter case I think you may be right and CGV represents slightly under 50% of total. 

 

 

Yeah, CGV also includes all tickets sold for that day.

 

What is interesting is CM had a 49.7% ratio on OD, which dropped to 46.6% on Saturday, but then everything else was back up between 47 and 51%. 

 

If OD for EG is really something like 47%, then need to remember to use that to estimate at 11:20 pm tonight  

 

Literally woke up in heaven this morning though, SK ratings through the roof, US ratings are phenomenal, China ratings are blowing up, China OD blowing up, literally everything is hitting perfectly with this movie

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I'm AWAKE! Let's get this party Startedddddd   

We used it for Captain Marvel in prep for Endgame.

 

Really good start for Endgame, if it crossed 1m at 11:20 update, then perhaps CGV is not 50% of OD like it was for Marvel? Could be looking at 47% like the weekend. Here's the hourlies so far.

 

Wednesday, 24 April
Time	Adm.
Presales	431,000
09:20	443,000
10:20	452,000
11:20	463,000
12:20	475,000
13:20	489,000
14:20	505,000
15:20
16:20
17:20
18:20
19:20
20:20
21:20
22:20
23:20
Actual:

 

And here's the linear prediction based on Captain Marvel:

 

Predictions based on CM
Presales	1,892,509
09:20	1,807,487
10:20	1,751,223
11:20	1,707,737
12:20	1,659,089
13:20 14:20	1,610,389 1,552,208

The linear one is surprisingly quite good. It's decreasing at a consistent rate of 50k per hour, which would result in a final OD of 1.1m. Obviously if it passed 1m at 11am, it won't be doing 1.1m total.

 

My thoughts so far point to a 1.3-1.4m opening day. Also since it appears CGV is taking a lower % than CM, could probably add about 7% to what CM predicts per hour.

 

Full sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

CGV added 79k post 14:20 for CM after adding 45k till 14:20.

 

For A:EG CGV has added 74k so far and following CM shall add 130k. Though being on safe side, I assume it will add 102k as midpoint of two. Which means a final 607k for A:EG. 

 

A CM ratio would mean 1.2-1.25mn full day but as a bigger release and bigger hype, that ratio shall be lower 1.35-1.4mn OD IMO.

[pepsa]

Okay let's do this!

 

EG has ove 1m already so it should add 300k to 400k more. 

1.5m might be a hard reach at this point.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

CGV added 79k post 14:20 for CM after adding 45k till 14:20.

 

For A:EG CGV has added 74k so far and following CM shall add 130k. Though being on safe side, I assume it will add 102k as midpoint of two. Which means a final 607k for A:EG. 

 

A CM ratio would mean 1.2-1.25mn full day but as a bigger release and bigger hype, that ratio shall be lower 1.35-1.4mn OD IMO.

 

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

Okay let's do this!

 

EG has ove 1m already so it should add 300k to 400k more. 

1.5m might be a hard reach at this point.

Looks like everything is pointing to the 1.3-1.4 range we expected based on Presales and CGV presales. 

 

Absolutely amazing and likely record breaking, just a shame it can't go batshit crazy for us like China or Indonesia.

 

And @pepsa good morning!!! Let's get this part started now we're all here 🎉🎊

[pepsa]

7 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

 

Looks like everything is pointing to the 1.3-1.4 range we expected based on Presales and CGV presales. 

 

Absolutely amazing and likely record breaking, just a shame it can't go batshit crazy for us like China or Indonesia.

 

And @pepsa good morning!!! Let's get this part started now we're all here 🎉🎊

We still have to wait maybe 6pm to 10pm are insane just like the ramp up yesterday  

And yeah my body is so ready!!

[Stewart]

Also, only just noticed, but we hit 600 pages!!!

 

3:20pm update:

13:20	489,000
14:20	505,000
15:20	517,000
16:20

 

likely just hit 1.1m for OD

 

full sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

Also, only just noticed, but we hit 600 pages!!!

 

3:20pm update:

13:20	489,000
14:20	505,000
15:20	517,000
16:20

 

likely just hit 1.1m for OD

 

full sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

 Okey now we need that extra 200k - 400k, let's see the chart pop off at 19-22pm I am so ready!

Damm the hype is real even in Belgium (normaly very low on SH train)

[pepsa]

@feasby007 You metric is now predicting 1.3m  Let's hope it keeps on creeping up like last hour!

[Stewart]

7 minutes ago, pepsa said:

@feasby007 You metric is now predicting 1.3m  Let's hope it keeps on creeping up like last hour!

Yep. I updated the sheet to roughly guess (based on CM) what the rate would be like. Hopefully 1.3m happens. Not entirely sold on OD record at the moment

[Stewart]

Quite amazingly, presales (http://kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findRealTicketList.do) are currently at 2,151,234, meaning it has only dropped 170k from 2,321,735!

 

Now we know that Opening Day accounted for around 900k presales (850k estimate earlier was too small based on when we hit 1m). And that 2.15m still accounts for presales for showings from 6:30pm onwards.

 

Can it stay above 2m? If it does that would mean it's sold at least 600k tickets in presales for the other days today. 

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Quite amazingly, presales (http://kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findRealTicketList.do) are currently at 2,151,234, meaning it has only dropped 170k from 2,321,735!

 

Now we know that Opening Day accounted for around 900k presales (850k estimate earlier was too small based on when we hit 1m). And that 2.15m still accounts for presales for showings from 6:30pm onwards.

 

Can it stay above 2m? If it does that would mean it's sold at least 600k tickets in presales for the other days today. 

I think it will or atleast be close enough that it will come back at the end of the day.

[Stewart]

Going slower than expected, likely too many presales. Probably won't hit 1.3m for Opening Day by what I can see at the moment.

 

Wednesday, 24 April
Time	Adm.
Presales	431,000
09:20	443,000
10:20	452,000
11:20	463,000
12:20	475,000
13:20	489,000
14:20	505,000
15:20	517,000
16:20	529,000
17:20	540,000
18:20	550,000
19:20	562,000
20:20	573,000
21:20	583,000
22:20	592,000
23:20	599,000
Actual:	1,274,468

 

Full Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

Edited April 24, 2019 by feasby007

[Olive]

Almost all prime time(6-10pm) showtimes are sold out, so it won't add much from then onward.