South Korea Box Office

[druv10]

2 minutes ago, nerves said:

I guess 10 million admissions is out of reach for TG:M

Not really. It can certainly reach 10M admissions but at the moment we don't have enough data set to know plus Thor's impact on 3rd weekend. For the moment just enjoy the ride and see if it surprises us with great hold next or even an increase.

[LegendaryBen]

12 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Not really. It can certainly reach 10M admissions but at the moment we don't have enough data set to know plus Thor's impact on 3rd weekend. For the moment just enjoy the ride and see if it surprises us with great hold next or even an increase.

What kind of BO gross in SK translates to 10M admission?

[nerves]

15 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Not really. It can certainly reach 10M admissions but at the moment we don't have enough data set to know plus Thor's impact on 3rd weekend. For the moment just enjoy the ride and see if it surprises us with great hold next or even an increase.

We'll gonna know next week if it holds great.I guess it will hold great because there is no much competiton next week.

 

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

What kind of BO gross in SK translates to 10M admission?

~$84-85M // 10M admits 

[nerves]

6 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

~$84-85M // 10M admits 

And TGM is predicted to open $12million+ so it needs a 7x multiplier to reach $84 million which seems unlikely to happen

[nerves]

Just now, nerves said:

And TGM is predicted to open $12million+ so it needs a 7x multiplier to reach $84 million which seems unlikely to happen

Especially thor is coming next next week and will surely open bigger or on par with DSMOM

[LegendaryBen]

1 hour ago, nerves said:

Especially thor is coming next next week and will surely open bigger or on par with DSMOM

Final prediction total for SK? maybe like $50m+ total?

[druv10]

I'm not sure why guys are worrying about the total admissions. It can easily coexist with Thor if the WOM stays strong. Just relax and enjoy the ride!

[pepsa]

Midday is even with saturday (169k CGV vs 170k yesterday), sunday however is a lot weaker in the evening. Still expecting a 5-6% dropish. So yeah probably 445k today. Again a better hold than the WoM monster Roundup (8% drop)

[RJ-195]

Wow, still at 138k presales by now, less than 50% drop from d-0 presale. Any person who familiar with this market, will this number drop before midnight or it will rise considering only few shows left today in there ?

 

Even roundup drop 65%+ from d-0 presales. I just looked up interstellar it also drop around 50-55% presales from Sunday to Monday but with it came nearly 8 years ago. Will be hard to compare presale behavior.

Edited June 26, 2022 by RJ-195

[pepsa]

14 minutes ago, RJ-195 said:

Wow, still at 138k presales by now, less than 50% drop from d-0 presale. Any person who familiar with this market, will this number drop before midnight or it will rise considering only few shows left today in there ?

 

Numbers generaly fall during the day till about 20-21 pm, after that they start to climb. There are also other factors like the day of the week. It normal for movie to climb more on friday because friday doen't burn to much ps demand whilst alot of people book for the weekend. Sunday has less ps for the evening so it might stop dropping a bit earlier during the day. (Like 19-20pm). Weekends are more PS heavy then weekdays meaning on weekdays specialy nearing the weekend (wed, thursday) we will see a ps increase much earlier during the day with a small dip during big cinema visiting hours like 5-8pm hours.

 

For example expect it to go up to atleast around 155k by midnight today.

Edited June 26, 2022 by pepsa

[RJ-195]

Seeing percentage in naver it is currently 9.63 ( verified ) /9.81 ( ??? )

 

70% male to 30% female. Male score 9.81 and female 9.83.

 

Seems like female like this as much as men. It still needs this expand the audience though. Few weeks later lets see if more women and younger audience  watch this movie.

Edited June 26, 2022 by RJ-195

[RJ-195]

7 minutes ago, pepsa said:

 

Numbers generaly fall during the day till about 20-21 pm, after that they start to climb. There are also other factors like the day of the week. It normal for movie to climb more on friday because friday doen't burn to much ps demand whilst alot of people book for the weekend. Sunday has less ps for the evening so it might stop dropping a bit earlier during the day. (Like 19-20pm). Weekends are more PS heavy then weekdays meaning on weekdays specialy nearing the weekend (wed, thursday) we will see a ps increase much earlier during the day with a small dip during big cinema visiting hours like 5-8pm hours.

 

For example expect it to go up to atleast around 160k by midnight today.

Wow, thanks. What do you think good starting cgv for tomorrow if it wants to target 60% drop or better ? 

[pepsa]

40 minutes ago, RJ-195 said:

Wow, thanks. What do you think good starting cgv for tomorrow if it wants to target 60% drop or better ? 

 

Hey, you seem to have a lot of questions about the SK boxoffice, I love to see that

 

I must admid my heyday's as a SK boxofficebuff are behind me. I haven't been super active on the forums sinds endgame.

But here is what I know:

Clasicly movies do around 3.6-4.5 x CGV ps on monday. Meaning if CGV comes in at 15k we can expected 60-68k CGV in the end. Now certain movies will follow other parterns, WoM can have an impact, demographics as well etc. You also look at other paterns that the movie is showing. For example TGM has been following Roundup's trends just a tad bit beter. So with this in mind we know roundup dropped rougly 66% meaning it's very unlikely TGM will drop more than 70%. So let's say CGV comes in at 12k with the casual rule *4  you would get 48 (maybe 47-51), 48 would translate to about a 100k. We know that TGM woudn't drop this low so it's safe to asume better walkups in this case around 5ish => 60 CGV /0.47 => 127k and a lot close to the 70% we expect as worst case.

 

That said I don't expect it to have low CGV on monday, I would guess something around 19k => 75k total translating to 165k ish down 63%. As for what you are asking I think if we see a 25k CGV it would ensure a sub 60% drop. That said I think a drop lower than 58% would be extremely good and meaning quite unlikely.

 

Other things to note are CGV ratio's, as you probably have noticed the CGV ratio isn't they day to day. Some movies get to 200k CGV and 445k, other movies end on 195k and get to 445k.  From what I understand CGV is the biggest chain, it accounts for nearly half the market. CGV ratio's often get lower the bigger the days. Meaning on the weekend the contribution of CGV goes down compared to weekdays. Take TGM as an example CGV ratio's: Wed: 46%, Thursday 46%, Friday 44.4%, Saturday 43.6% and I am expecting sunday to do about 44%. However this isn't always the case, WoM also plays a role, I think good WoM lead to better CGV ratio's.  Also with for example ShangChi weekdays (after OD) had better CGV ratio's. This can also partialy be explained by the low numbers => let's say your CGV ends at 90k (meaning it can be anywere between 90 000 - 90 999, in this case a difference of about 1%. Let's say you CGV ends with 24k => 24 000 - 24 999, now the high end is about 4% bigger than the low end. This can also mess with the CGV ratio, so keep this in mind with lower numbers. (Under 10k you get the precise numbers so no need to take it in to account at that point). Ofc these are just guidelines, movies can always diviate, so the best way to help strenghten the acc of your predictions is find similar comps, look for paterns in the current movies run an adjust to them.

 

As for the PS on Kobiz (KOFIC), note that tomorrow they will go up alot because Wednesday if I remember correctly will be culture day (discounted tickets). I think every last wednesday of the month it's cultures day, cheap tickets, so increase in admission, but revenue doesn't increase as much.

 

Other things are: Tuesdays are more PS heavy than mondays, wednesday is opening day for movies so it often sees quite hard dips. CGV ratio's are normaly a bit worse on tues, wed and thur compared to monday.

 

I hope this information is usefull. Nothing is set in stone, so don't stare yourself blind on the rules 😛 Also I am not the best at this, people like @charlie Jatinder are much better at it. Also there are many other people that are very familier with SK boxoffice that probably have more knowledge than me.

 

 

 

[pepsa]

Sunday came in at 438.3k (vs yesterday at 465.7k), yesterday went up quite a bit over midnight numbers. Don't expect it to go up by as much today.

 

So sunday: 438.3k down 7.2% from yesterday again better than Roundup. The actuals will probably be more like 440-441k down 6.8%. Another great day. In 20 min I can estimated the monday hold.

[imbruglia]

6-24~26 Weekend
1. Top Gun: Maverick - 1,126,780 [1,525,927] / 26,440 Showings
2. The Witch: Part 2 - 402,148 (-60.2%) [2,241,327] / 11,461 Showings
3. The Roundup - 318,777 (-42.1%) [12,044,336] / 9,376 Showings
4. Lightyear - 49,368 (-68.9%) [286,467] / 1,773 Showings
5. Broker - 42,916 (-72.9%) [1,212,718] / 1,924 Showings

 

Presale
1. Top Gun 2 - 156,638
2. Thor: Love and Thunder - 91,949 (D-9)
3. Decision To Leave - 62,607 (D-02)
4. The Witch: Part 2 - 17,017
5. The Roundup - 16,360
 

[Legion Again]

Don’t listen to @pepsa

Spoiler

When he says there are a lot of people much better at this than him  

 

[MrHardapple]

I really like the Maverick numbers from South Korea.

Hoping for a long, healthy run there...

[Legion Again]

As for myself I was really in the daily prediction from CGV PS zone in 2019, think I did really well during FFH/TLK/F2. But have also fallen a bit out of practice. Maybe get back in the saddle with Thor but part of it is that my new job hours just don’t line up as well.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[pepsa]

Damm great CGV start at 25k, this has a very good shot at droping below 60%. Don't think it will do a 4x multi, would be way to high but 80k seems very doable. Meaning 174k for monday almost on par with it's OD, With good walkups who knows what can happen.