The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[A Marvel Fanboy]

130M is not locked.

[Fake]

I wouldn't say $130m is locked. But it's still more likely than not.

It is locked (unless the Thursday number dips below 15M).

[Dementeleus]

if it misses 55M for the weekend, 130M 6day is gone.It's unlikely

You're right, for some reason I was using 57.2m as its gross to date, when of course it's 59.2m.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Transformers 3 increased 53% on Friday after a Wednesday opening and that was beginning of July also.I think this will increase around 25% on Friday.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

If it falls the 125~130M range six-days, Brave will give this a close run for #6 yearly DOM.

[Dementeleus]

Transformers 3 increased 53% on Friday after a Wednesday opening and that was beginning of July also.I think this will increase around 25% on Friday.

But Tranformers had the exact same release date and only jumped 18%.

[Fake]

You're right, for some reason I was using 57.2m as its gross to date, when of course it's 59.2m.

It's 58.35M.Mon - 0.85MTue - 34.17MWed - 23.33M

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I need to miss 160m six day.

[TLK]

15.8 takes it to 75 million 3 days. TF1's weekend jumps will take it past 130 so this may be why Sony is so confident about 130. I think it will do slightly better because most holdovers just got gutted in terms of Theater count and I think it has a good WOM(Its RT rating improved from 4.1 to 4.2 and IMDB went from 7.7 to 7.8 over the past couple of days).

Edited July 6, 2012 by TLK

[riczhang]

I have it slightly above 60 for the weekend.

[TLK]

It's 58.35M.Mon - 0.85MTue - 34.17MWed - 23.33M

Its 59.2BOM is wrong.

[Cedarpoint1111]

But Tranformers had the exact same release date and only jumped 18%.

Okay but its obviously not following the same pattern so far. Why should it start now?

[JackO]

I need to miss 160m six day.

I think that it will. Bar is lowered to 125M-135M.

[riczhang]

15.8 takes it 75 million 3 days. TF1's weekend jumps will take it past 130 so this may be why Sony is so confident about 130. I think it will do slightly better because most holdovers just got gutted in terms of Theater count and I think it has a good WOM(Its RT rating improved from 4.1 to 4.2 and IMDB went from 7.7 to 7.8 over past couple of days).

agreed, and if you take the 16.8 figure it actually brings it closer to 140.

[riczhang]

Okay but its obviously not following the same pattern so far. Why should it start now?

We don't have anything else with the exact same dates to compare it to.

[Dementeleus]

Okay but its obviously not following the same pattern so far. Why should it start now?

It's not wildly dissimilar. It had a much worse than TF % for day 2 and a slightly better drop for day 3.

[Cedarpoint1111]

They weren't very comparable to begin with. The box office has changed a lot since 2007. Tuesdays are much bigger than they use to be and that probably inflated TASM's Tuesday number. Because of that, maybe Friday will have a bigger increase?There's too many variables to just assume it will follow Transformers path. Even Half Blood Prince which opened on a Wednesday had a bigger Friday increase than Transformers.

[Sims]

Its 59.2BOM is wrong.

Why? The 58.35 includes the 850K previews...

[JackO]

THURSDAY PM, 7TH UPDATE: Sources tell me that Sony Pictures’ The Amazing Spider-Man (in extra-wide release at 4,318 theaters) made close to $16.3M on Thursday. That gives the reboot $75.5M with its 3D premium after three days of release on the eve of the start of the pic’s first official weekend. Thursday’s result was -30% from the 2nd biggest Fourth Of July at the domestic box office on record.

[grey ghost]

If it falls the 125~130M range six-days, Brave will give this a close run for #6 yearly DOM.

Brave is going to hit 240 m?Anyway, I still think ASM will be closer to 135 m than 125 after 6 days.