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Catching Fire OS Thread || 438m

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For the moment the only safe increases should be in Brazil, Mexico, UK, France and Russia, we can't be sure about the rest of the world.

Yeah, Brazil's anticipation is growing rapidly, than I thought. But Australia and Germany aren't really sure. Too early but, CF will make same numbers of TGH in both of those territories.

Edited by The Joker
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We'll see. New Moon did $43.4m after the first Twilight only made $16.3m. THG made $37m.

Agree, but hitting 60m is quite hard, you need a big OW and also good legs like DM2, but DM2 is all about family. but CF isn't family, that's the point. But 60m isn't impossible, but for now, its better to go with 50-55.

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Agree, but hitting 60m is quite hard, you need a big OW and also good legs like DM2, but DM2 is all about family. but CF isn't family, that's the point. But 60m isn't impossible, but for now, its better to go with 50-55.

I don't know about that. There was a good amount of familes that went (news channels interviewing families on youtube) to THG. What really stands out for THG series was that the first movie drew in more people over the age of 25 rather than younger than 25. That means better legs when you can draw in an older audience. Not to mention the first film showed that it is a 4 quadrant film, meaning that all groups of people (older than 25, younger than 25, males, females) will be attracted to watch it and enjoy it (most did). Unlike Twilight, and perhaps HP, this is as close to a 4 quadrant film as you can get. Granted, theses were domestic figures, but I think the same can be for OS as well.

Edited by k1stpierre
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I don't know about that. There was a good amount of familes that went (news channels interviewing families on youtube) to THG. What really stands out for THG series was that the first movie drew in more people over the age of 25 rather than younger than 25. That means better legs when you can draw in an older audience. Not to mention the first film showed that it is a 4 quadrant film, meaning that all groups of people (older than 25, younger than 25, males, females) will be attracted to watch it and enjoy it (most did). Unlike Twilight, and perhaps HP, this is as close to a 4 quadrant film as you can get. Granted, theses were domestic figures, but I think the same can be for OS as well.

Yeah, its same for OS as well. Btw 60m in UK is still unclear, anyway we've got more than 3 months to track this down. 60 could happen but still it isn't locked. We'll wait and see!

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$375 - $425 M overseas.

 

I don't see it pulling a FF6 or a TDKR, two 2d movies that hit that mark abroad.  I also don't see it hitting bigger than the last Twilight ($537M for a 2d movie without China).

 

HG CF doesn't strike me as those movies that will be equally extremely loved in Germany, France, Spain, Italy,  Australia, The UK, Mexico, Brasil, Russia, China, South Korea (HG did 3.9 M there) and Japan.  You need to hit big in every single of those markets or very big in all of them but one to have a chance to hit $550 M for a 2d movie...few movies hit that mark, fewer in 2d...the last ones being FF6 and Skyfall 

 

Gurl, stop !

 

Buy, rent some common sense.

 

You ll see what 20 months of awareness can do.

 

The first movie came out of nowhere for every country in the world except the US, UK & Australia.

 

Outside of the US and the Common Wealth, THG awareness was very faint ... it was 20 months ago, more than one year and a half ago...

 

The first and second movie/book are so different in scope, stakes and storytelling ambition it is not even funny.

 

Lionsgate is going to sell CF as the movie event of the year.

 

And it will be, without cheap 3d to inflate gross.

 

Game Over , Man !

Edited by The Futurist
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Gurl, stop !

 

Buy, rent some common sense.

 

You ll see what 20 months of awareness can do.

 

The first movie came out of nowhere for every country in the world except the US, UK & Australia.

 

Outside of the US and the Common Wealth, THG awareness was very faint ... it was 20 months ago, more than one year and a half ago...

 

The first and second movie/book are so different in scope, stakes and storytelling ambition it is not even funny.

 

Lionsgate is going to sell CF as the movie event of the year.

 

And it will be, without cheap 3d to inflate gross.

 

Game Over , Man !

I agree with pretty much all of this. Europe I think is a def. Brazil isn't locked, but it's getting there and should produce big numbers. Russia is also up there in possibility with Brazil. The only up in the air country is Japan and maybe China. Not to sure how those two will do. I have higher hopes for China than Japan. But like you said, 20 months of awareness is plenty of time for WOM to spread.

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I agree with pretty much all of this. Europe I think is a def. Brazil isn't locked, but it's getting there and should produce big numbers. Russia is also up there in possibility with Brazil. The only up in the air country is Japan and maybe China. Not to sure how those two will do. I have higher hopes for China than Japan. But like you said, 20 months of awareness is plenty of time for WOM to spread.

Hopes should be high, 'cause THG had 27 in China, and 5 in Japan. China will make 50-60, but Japan will be 10-15.

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Hopes should be high, 'cause THG had 27 in China, and 5 in Japan. China will make 50-60, but Japan will be 10-15.

Well I just had that 'little' hope inside me that was thinking (or hoping) Japan would break out really high......but then it went away, and went with fact :P  Still, if Japan does do 10-15, I'll take it. Not great, but could be worse, at least it wouldn't go down. lol.

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Well I just had that 'little' hope inside me that was thinking (or hoping) Japan would break out really high......but then it went away, and went with fact :P  Still, if Japan does do 10-15, I'll take it. Not great, but could be worse, at least it wouldn't go down. lol.

 

It could drop...

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Pretty much, Japan is so much up in the air right now. I can only hope that it goes higher than 5M, hell I'll be happy with 6M :P  Just don't go down Japan! Don't do it!!!

10m in Japan will be a great success, then its almost doubled the 5m made last year. Btw many other foreign territories looks promising so far!

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Predicts:

The Joker: 360m

Ent: 390m

Neo: 395m

Jam90: 420m

Olive: 428mGodzilla: 450m

Tower: 450m

Juby 460m

Leyla: 460m

Robertron: 468m

Peludo: 475m

k1stpierre: 500m

The Futurist: 500mFiredeep: 520m

Iceroll: 550m

Dan355: 550m

Adje: 560m

Sims: 580m

Noctis: 610m

Alisson23: 680m

fmpro: 1.2b (lol)

Edited by Ice Minions
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Predicts:

The Joker: 360m - updated - 380

Ent: 390m

Neo: 395m

Jam90: 420m

Olive: 428mGodzilla: 450m

Tower: 450m

Juby 460m

Leyla: 460m

Robertron: 468m

Peludo: 475m

k1stpierre: 500m

The Futurist: 500mFiredeep: 520m

Iceroll: 550m

Dan355: 550m

Adje: 560m

Sims: 580m

Noctis: 610m

Alisson23: 680m

fmpro: 1.2b (lol)

 

I have to increase my prediction by 20M.

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