Frozen OS thread

[Incarnadine]

I fail to see how it's a "mini" Skyfall at all. It's done quite a bit better domestically, and is doing very comparable numbers OS.

 

As for China and Japan, I have a question. Most people seem to be predicting around 30m and 50m for Frozen in China and Japan, respectively. Why is this? I thought China was a much bigger market, so wouldn't it be able to gross much more in China? And why is it that only Pixar movies, for example, do well in Japan while other animated movies don't? 

 

Just looking for some insight on these two markets.

Japan is a much leggier market, movies can play there a long time. Hollywood movies have a limited run in China, usually there is a set date where a movie will be pulled without regard to how it's still playing there. On rare occasions a movie will be given an extension to its run, but that's a rare exception.

[yjs]

I fail to see how it's a "mini" Skyfall at all. It's done quite a bit better domestically, and is doing very comparable numbers OS.As for China and Japan, I have a question. Most people seem to be predicting around 30m and 50m for Frozen in China and Japan, respectively. Why is this? I thought China was a much bigger market, so wouldn't it be able to gross much more in China? And why is it that only Pixar movies, for example, do well in Japan while other animated movies don't? Just looking for some insight on these two markets.

China and Japan both have huge markets but they are rather localized and majorly driven by the local titles so hollywood movies need some extra push or extremely universal appeal or a certain "it factor" to break out, and once they do they do massive business. South Korea, whose market is now about the same size as France (or Germany was it..), has a similar pattern. regarding animated films, I can't see the pattern in China. It hasn't been that long since the market became this relevant box office-wise. Kung fu Panda 2 did extremely well grossing near $100M, but the movie was set in China so that was an obvious one. Tangled on the other hand didn't even manage to get a theatrical release. I heard they need a governmental approval or something to open a foreign movie there. and people seem to like bigger fares when it comes to hollywood films, like blockbusters. Despicable Me 2 opened with $15M-ish numbers so Frozen could do the same, or a lot more, hopefully, but don't necessarily see it go overboard as KFP 2 did. Maybe it can, maybe not.South Korea has been a graveyard for animated films. While Koreans are taste-wise somewhere in the middle between Chinese and Japanese and like both fun blockbusters and emotional drama/cute, sweet films esp romantic comedies (which explains the recent explosion of Richard Curtis' About Time), There has been this perception that animated films are for kids or inferior regardless their themes. Dreamworks films did relatively well because the distribution deal they've had was a good one, very closely tied with the biggest cinema chain (the world's 5th biggest) and people more appreciated lighter tones and straightforward humor in them compared to Pixar's dramatic aspects or Disney's musical numbers. (Pixar was for film maniacs while many others didn't buy animations can deliver some real emotional resonance, and Disney has been underrated forever and musicals in general here are considered cringeworthy.) Frozen somehow really broke the pattern and became highly successful, projecting 30M-40M here, which is the highest gross an animated film has ever achieved. I think it's probably because it was already doing so inexplicably well in other territories and it created some pre-release buzzes and it helped clearing up the prejudice people have got against it for it being an animated musical, which is usually the worst combination for Koreans. and Japan is the tricky one. People are much more open to animated films compared to China or Korea, in fact animated films seem to do better than live action films there. But they seem to have developed their own strong taste regarding animations. Strong drama with fantastic elements, maybe. Ghibli and Pixar quite fit this but Dreamworks, not so much. Disney could do well but since Disney itself has had some hard time and it might have needed some time reestablishing its brand image. At least Japan is basically Disney-friendly which is implied by the merchandise sales figures there. Tangled did about $30M but could have done better if it had not been for the huge tsunami they had which was indeed a tragic incident for the country. So in short, China and Japan are both tricky territories to guess and people just can't be sure that Frozen will make like, $100M there respectively only because they are the 2nd and 3rd biggest markets since it never happened with Disney films before and the tendency that the local audience choosing movies by thier own rules are appeared stronger there and local titles are a lot more preferred. (the Avengers, for example did only $40M in Japan while it did $80M in the UK, China and $50M in Korea.)so Frozen breaking out in South Korea is a really good news. If it can do $30M-$40M in Korea which has never happened in the territory with a Disney animation, it's more likely that it does very very well in China and Japan. Edited January 22, 2014 by yjs

[Omni]

China just doesn't know what cinema is. Unlike Japan, it doesn't have a solid history of movies, its moviegoers can't recognize stuff like bad acting, weak story, factitious dialogues, etc... Result = 1) if it's a live action film, it makes a lot of money only if it's a 'phenomenon', c'est à dire only if it's a big blockbuster or if it's marketed as one; 2) about live action films, craps tend to perform well as long as they're in 3D; 3) animated films do well either if they are 'centered on intrusive sidekicks', which obviously sounds as a contradiction. Limited to the world of movies, they tend to act like idiots. And in fact, all respectable idiots love the minions.I predicted DM2 to triple Frozen there based on that, and on the weak release date.In Japan, foreign movies rarely finish above 50M. And Tangled made just a little more than 30M. MU grossed 90+ because it was a prequel to a very beloved film, while Frozen is an original movie not released by Pixar (and not directed by Miyazaki).

Edited January 22, 2014 by Omni

[catlover]

I fail to see how it's a "mini" Skyfall at all. It's done quite a bit better domestically, and is doing very comparable numbers OS.

 

As for China and Japan, I have a question. Most people seem to be predicting around 30m and 50m for Frozen in China and Japan, respectively. Why is this? I thought China was a much bigger market, so wouldn't it be able to gross much more in China? And why is it that only Pixar movies, for example, do well in Japan while other animated movies don't?

 

Just looking for some insight on these two markets.

 

I'll try to answer this. Like what yjs said, Japanese love animations with strong drama and something unique or magical. You can see that from animations from Ghibli, especially those directed by Miyazaki. Even though they are animated films, they are made not only for kids, but also for adults. Many of them implicitly have deep and mature themes in the stories. They are heartfelt, and again, strong drama, with some laughs here and there, and unique concepts, just like Pixar movies. Even Doraemon movies have heartfelt scenes in them, whether about family, friendship, or bravery. That's why Japanese love Pixar. Their movies are the closest ones to Japanese animations, especially Ghibli. On the other hand, animations from other studios like Dreamworks, are mainly comedy with a lot of pop culture references, which are probably unfamiliar to Japanese audience, and less drama.

 

That's why I have high hopes for Frozen. It's a heartfelt story, with magical elements, has a deep mature theme and can be enjoyed by all ages. And like most Miyazaki's movies, the lead characters are female. Not to mention, it's a Disney musical and Japanese love Disney AND musical. So I think it will break out there.

Edited January 22, 2014 by catlover

[Gokai Red]

Wow. Thanks for all the answers guys. Really informative. Hope this breaks out in both countries!

[Olive]

Chinese audience don't like musicals as much as Koreans and Japanese.

Frozen is not doing even a quarter of MU numbers in HK and Taiwan..

And non-sequel animated movies usually bomb here.

Let's be cautious in order not to be disappointed.

[BuffyfanIT]

That was wonderful. Are these different language versions appear in the movie? 'Cause I wonder if there's also some different language versions of the other songs! 

Yeah of course! Disney movies are dubbed into a lot of languages! You can easily find the different versions on Youtube! I've uploaded the italian ones for example:

[Leyla]

Who has expected this queen is a mini Skyfall?

cant see any similiarities to SF at all

SF is a part of a 50yr old fanchise & not that that result came out of nowhere just based on wom

Fz is a non sequel cartoon

actually its achievement is in a way more significant than SF's

 

 

 

its moviegoers can't recognize stuff like bad acting, weak story, factitious dialogues, etc... 

this again   

Edited January 22, 2014 by Tauriel

[Omni]

Yeah, I forgot that Chinese moviegoers don't like musicals.

I'm wondering...can Frozen actually follow Brave in China? Does it have anything going for it?

[druv10]

Yeah, I forgot that Chinese moviegoers don't like musicals.

I'm wondering...can Frozen actually follow Brave in China? Does it have anything going for it?

Chinese taste in animation is just out there. Both Croods and DM2 are mediocre but are going to do 60M+ each while MU/Frozen will barely do half of that if they're lucky, SMH. 

Edited January 22, 2014 by druv10

[lab276]

I don't want to set myself up for disappointment, but this is exactly the kind of animated film that should take off something spectacular in Japan.

[druv10]

I don't want to set myself up for disappointment, but this is exactly the kind of animated film that should take off something spectacular in Japan.

 

40-50M is definitely doable, anything more will depend on the WOM it gets in Japan. Golden Week is in April could really boost the later part of it's run. 

[Olive]

SK Wed #

161,082 -14% 1,708,388

With 3 new releases, that's a good drop.Still above its OD.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Olive

[druv10]

 

SK Wed #

161,082 -14% 1,708,388

With 3 new releases, that's a good drop.Still above its OD.

 

 

Yeah, it held easily the best out of the holdovers. I'm starting to think 35M+ for Frozen in SK. 

[Olive]

IMO it may challenge KFP2 in Korea, hopefully.

5.1M admissions.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Olive

[yjs]

IMO it may challenge KFP2 in Korea, hopefully.

5.1M admissions.

5M is definitely in play and some even say 6M+ is possible. 

50M-ish grosses in Korea would be just astonishing!

[catlover]

I don't want to set myself up for disappointment, but this is exactly the kind of animated film that should take off something spectacular in Japan.

 

Exactly! The successes in the US and many other countries will also help. And that epic Japanese trailer is easily the best of all Frozen trailers. I've watched it again and again just to relive the movie.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

According to BOM numbers Frozen did $9.6 M. in Europe last week (New total $276.7 M.) and finally passed DM2's $273.7 M. here!!! And it was not released in Sweden yet!!! After the release in Sweden it should have no problem in crossing $300 M.

[BadAtGender]

So if China is a potential disappointment (Is 20M too high?) could Korea's breakout make up for that?

[yjs]

So if China is a potential disappointment (Is 20M too high?) could Korea's breakout make up for that?

yeah, cause Tangled only made $9.4M in Korea and Frozen seems to be about to make like, $40M, so.

and people were expecting like $50M for China and even if it makes $20M Korea makes it up.