druv10 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 yjs, what is the absolute maximum do you see for Frozen, where everything goes right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yjs Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) yjs, what is the absolute maximum do you see for Frozen, where everything goes right? "Absolute" maximum I would say 7-8M admissions/$50-55M. It'll be clearer when the lunar new year holiday kicks in soon and we see how well it holds up. It is the #1 movie now and this weekend looks VERY promising but during the holiday more conventional Korean "family-friendly" comedies will gain momentum while Frozen might get hurt a bit despite it also being very family-friendly since it is not cut out for the conservative "cartoon-is-for-kids" older audience which is the key demo of the holiday time frame. Think admission numbers will still increase during the holiday tho. So if it reaches near 5M by the end of the holiday then 7-8M might happen. However it faces the Nut Job and the Lego movie right after the holiday so 5-6M is a much safer bet. But then again Frozen's not considered a kiddie film anymore so the competition wouldn't be too tough anyway and by taking that point of view, 6-7M would be more likely. Edited January 25, 2014 by yjs 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hernan Gonzalez Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 $800+ M. by tomorrow??? ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Absolutely fantastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 "Absolute" maximum I would say 7-8M admissions/$50-55M. It'll be clearer when the lunar new year holiday kicks in soon and we see how well it holds up. It is the #1 movie now and this weekend looks VERY promising but during the holiday more conventional Korean "family-friendly" comedies will gain momentum while Frozen might get hurt a bit despite it also being very family-friendly since it is not cut out for the conservative "cartoon-is-for-kids" older audience which is the key demo of the holiday time frame. Think admission numbers will still increase during the holiday tho. So if it reaches near 5M by the end of the holiday then 7-8M might happen. However it faces the Nut Job and the Lego movie right after the holiday so 5-6M is a much safer bet. But then again Frozen's not considered a kiddie film anymore so the competition wouldn't be too tough anyway and by taking that point of view, 6-7M would be more likely.I think 7 Million is done. Lego movie could be reasonably big as lego is popular here, but I have had students in class talking to each other about this film and that hasn't happened for a Hollywood film since Iron Man or even before.If I was a betting man I would guess it will fall just shy of 7.5M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think 7 Million is done. Lego movie could be reasonably big as lego is popular here, but I have had students in class talking to each other about this film and that hasn't happened for a Hollywood film since Iron Man or even before.If I was a betting man I would guess it will fall just shy of 7.5M That would be around 55M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 50m is doable, Frozen is not just an animated movie.Its Fri-Sat increase is only half of KFP movie,and Sun-mon drop is far better than KFP.It's a 4-q movie in Korea.And 50m is a stunning performance.If nut job bombs, 55m is possible.Also depends on how Lego goes.Nut Job Jan 29Lego Feb 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ban1o Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 so will Frozen make more than The Hobbit WW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 so will Frozen make more than The Hobbit WW? Yes, real question is will it pass DM2 for number 2 WW for 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wileECoyote Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 so will Frozen make more than The Hobbit WW?Pretty much. I think the question is can it catch DM2 and get to 1B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty much. I think the question is can it catch DM2 and get to 1B The more I think about it the more I thing 1 billion WW is better than 50/50 now Frozen should be over 800m WW after this weekend, how much over I'm not sure, but going with a nice round 800... Assuming Frozen does 400m domestic to the penny - another 52m Korea/Turkey - another 30m Holdover markets- 15m Sweden - 9m. That has us at 906m, and that's not counting however much over 800m it actually is after the weekend. So, worst case China and Japan need 94m between them. Even the lowest estimates all seem to be around 30m and 50m (80m total). The remaining 14m could come from anywhere, maybe it's a few million higher than 800 after the weekend, slightly higher holdover grosses (it's still playing in a lot of markets, just with diminishing returns now), hitting big in China or Japan (who knows how high Frozen could go if by some miracle it really broke out in both those markets), maybe domestic crawls to 405 for a few million more. That surprising run in SK really improved the odds a lot, 20-30 would have been great, 50+, well that's amazing and a huge boost. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxx93 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is the exciting thing about Frozen. We still don´t know where it will stop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 SK Sunday520k total 3,123,000, increased from SaturdayMon-Sun 1.9MNext Mon-Sun will be well over 2M with holiday boost. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 SK Sunday 520k total 3,123,000, increased from Saturday Mon-Sun 1.9M Next Mon-Sun will be well over 2M with holiday boost. Olive, what I find amazing about SK BO is, we get admissions/grosses within 10 mins after the day ends. I wish rest of the world was like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So Frozen should be heading to 7m admissions in SK? Absolutely incredible performance. If Japan delivers on this one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yjs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Olive, what I find amazing about SK BO is, we get admissions/grosses within 10 mins after the day ends. I wish rest of the world was like this. yeah after they adopted a public database and ticket sales tracking system or something. It's super cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 yeah after they adopted a public database and ticket sales tracking system or something. It's super cool. This would be awesome for domestic BO. We could actually compare BO runs by different juggernauts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 BoxOffice @BoxOffice5m FROZEN: $462.5M Overseas Total / $810.3M Global Total #Frozen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Now up to $810.3m WW https://twitter.com/BoxOffice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wileECoyote Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 (edited) BoxOffice @BoxOffice5m FROZEN: $462.5M Overseas Total / $810.3M Global Total #Frozen Made 32M 36M, about the same amount for the week as last week. Edited January 26, 2014 by WileECoyote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
