mfantin65 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 (edited) FactsJapanese box office for recent WDAS releasesRapunzel: $31MWiR: $29Mprincess and the frog: $4Mwinnie the pooh: $4MFor a country with a film-going population as big as Japan those numbers aren't really a good performance. Pixar is way more popular than disney there. MU grossed $90M finding nemo did $102M and even cars 2 managed $38MSo going on past facts, 100M for frozen is a bit optimistic. I'm not saying that it won't happen (before frozen disney was really unpopular in SK too and just look what happened) but it isn't what you'd call a lock. There's no way of knowing to what extent frozen will break out in the Japanese market. How did you come up with 100m anyway?We have determined 100m is possible for animation. Althought that was pixar.Many movies have reacted similarly in far eastFrozen has resonated, found legs, and out performed in many different countries/culturesMusicals have performed well in JapanChina doubled expectations and they are not big on animation as other genres.Japan usually does larger grosses than SK. The hype is amping up there with the music release, leading one to believe it has resonated and will react like SK but w a larger population.Japan usually outgrosses china for animation.Gut instinct. Been predicting the stock market and box office for 35 years. Edited February 22, 2014 by mfantin65 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 That's actually a pretty good list of reasons. You should probably add academy award wins to that when it happens Anyway here's to hoping it breaks out big time in Japan! I never imagined frozen would be challenging TS3 WW when it first came out! Amazing run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Japan only cares about Pixar and Disney animated releases, and ignore all the other animated movies released from the America, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Facts Japanese box office for recent WDAS releases Rapunzel: $31M WiR: $29M princess and the frog: $4M winnie the pooh: $4M Wasn't Tangled badly impacted by the Earthquake? I think it would have made more if that hadn't happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wasn't Tangled badly impacted by the Earthquake? I think it would have made more if that hadn't happened. Yes it's true I forgot to mention that. even without the earthquake/tsunami though I doubt it would have made pixar numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceroll Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I never said 100m in Japan is impossible. I said 100m in Japan as a minimum is crazy. If we're talking minimum, it could go as low as 30m which is what the last few WDAS films did there. I don't expect it to go that low and I think it will do around 80m, but to say that 100m is the minimum is just to logical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 So Frozen needs at least 64M from Japan in order to beat Toy Story 3 WW? Right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'll go with somewhere between 50m and 150m for Japan. For a more precise range I'll say somewhere in the 80's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxx93 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I am still betting for Spirited Away numbers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I am still betting for Spirited Away numbers That would be amazing, but unfortunately, no. I said this before, no other movie will touch or even be close to Spirited Away, ever. Okay, maybe some movie in the distant future will get there, but definitely not Frozen. Also yes, $100m minimum (or lock) is crazy and illogical. Minimum means it cannot be lower than that, and we know it could. So $100m possible yes, minimum no. And I'm actually rooting for it to get to that number. But for me now, it's around $75m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hernan Gonzalez Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 So Frozen needs at least 64M from Japan in order to beat Toy Story 3 WW? Right?I would say $30-35 M in Japan would be enough to beat Toy Story 3 WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazyboy2809 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 How about beating Iron Man 3? Is it possible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 That would be amazing, but unfortunately, no. I said this before, no other movie will touch or even be close to Spirited Away, ever. Okay, maybe some movie in the distant future will get there, but definitely not Frozen. Also yes, $100m minimum (or lock) is crazy and illogical. Minimum means it cannot be lower than that, and we know it could. So $100m possible yes, minimum no. And I'm actually rooting for it to get to that number. But for me now, it's around $75m I'm sure that won't happen. Why? Demographics! Japan loses inhabitants every year, more and more, and the number of births collapse while the growth of retired people explodes. It's not only dangerous zconomically, that also means the potential audience is decreasing year after year. And cinemas could be hit by the next VAT increases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 How about beating Iron Man 3? Is it possible? Highly unlikely. It stands a bit of a chance to get to #6 WW, by beating Transformers 3's 1.123b, but getting the next 92 million to get to IM3 would probably require a Spirited Away-like run in Japan, which is an incredibly tall order. Especially with a relatively weak dollar. (Only about 100 yen to the dollar at the moment.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 (edited) Yeah IM3 is a bit out of reach...highest grossing animation film has a nice ring to it though especially considering it's a non sequel! Edited February 22, 2014 by Rsyu 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Answer to mfantin65's post in the China thread: Here are my minimum predictions, "lock" so to speak.China 50SK 80Japan 100DOM 410Global 1.150bOptimistically. Anything can happen w a phenom. Think big.China 60SK 90DOM 427Japan130Global 1.217bWhat are yours? Locks China 45M SK 75M Japan 40M DOM 395M Global 1.06B Reasonable China 50M SK 80M Japan 60M DOM 401M Global 1.1B Optimistic scenario China 60M SK 90M Japan 100M DOM 410M Global 1.17B Frozen needs to reach the insane level of MU, MI, Nemo and TS3 in Japan to even struggle to your 'lock'...enough said 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah IM3 is a bit out of reach...highest grossing animation film has a nice ring to it though especially considering it's a non sequel! It's deserved 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's deserved Please,TS3 is MUCH better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Please,TS3 is MUCH better. It's a matter of opinion. Personally I thought TS3 had the better story plot and really touched me deeply, while frozen's musical numbers and message of love overcoming fear made it resonate more deeply in me. Both great movies though and I'd easily understand anyone who puts TS3 above frozen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsyu Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sk frozen sat box office Daily admission: 157,149 total admission: 9.46m total gross: $70.8m I was hoping for at least 200k admissions but new releases this week did better than expected. with new releases next week into an already crowded month frozen could go down fast.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
