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Gopher

Aug. 17-19, 2012 Studio Weekend Estimates (coming in...)

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We can always account for the gross differential -- more or less -- but what we can never account for is exactly how many people see a film *only because* its in 2D. Or *only because* its in 3D.

Not very many. Source: common sense. If anything, the demographic that will only see a movie because it is in 3D doesn't even make much sense, considering the new application of the technology to modern blockbusters. Did the people not go to movies prior to Avatar and suddenly fall in love with the 3D format, rather than the quality of the film? If anything, gripes associated with 3D viewing effects, such as motion sickness and dizziness would imply that the overall impact of this demographic would be negative for the 3D film.I cannot think of a single plausible scenario where these people would greatly impact the gross of a major film. Not one. I would love to see numbers and the breakdown among genres, but I would bet a massive amount of money that the impact on a gross for an event film such as TA would be minute (<1%). And until we have quantitative proof of a major effect, this just seems like conjecture designed for grasping at straws.
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For example: how many people would have seen Avatar were it only in 2D? There are valid arguments suggesting "not as many" -- especially considering its huge 3D share. Same applies to TDKR: how many tickets would it have sold had it been in 3D? Again, valid arguments to suggest it would have sold fewer.

This is poor logic. Avatar and TDKR aren't in the same league when it comes to 2D vs 3D marketing. Avatar was explicitly billed as the next generation of the film experience, and that rested on the 3D. So yes, the 3D had a lot to do with that gross. For future films, this is not the case. No one is saying they are going to see TA because it's solely in 3D. They may have said that for Avatar, because the technology behind the film was revolutionary. As to the TDKR argument, the ONLY demographic that TDKR would have lost would have been the people that place the film's format of 2D vs 3D over the quality of its predecessors. For your argument to be valid, you're implying that this would compose a large group of people. I HIGHLY, HIGHLY doubt that there were millions of Americans that would refuse to watch TDKR if it was released in 3D, especially given it was based on 2 prior, hugely successful films (with TDK receiving absurd WOM). I'm sorry, the logic just does not add up whatsoever. Edited by nAlkaline
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OHmyGODExpendables2 opening below the first?Expendables2 opening on par with TotalRemake?Expendables2 opening below TheBourneLess?Expendables2 NOT reaching the 100M?Expendables2 NOT being the biggest movie of august?

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To be honest, i was sure that:TEX2 would open at least in the 40+ and could close, at the highest, at 150M.Bourne would fall HARD.Sparkle would be verrry over Norman.Conclusion:Nothing is a sure thing here.

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We should all be upset at the fact that we´re not talking about EXP2 Opening day. The last interesting thing to hit the BO has been TDKR gross debate.

Yeah, and the box office only goes downhill from here.
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OHmyGODExpendables2 opening below the first?Expendables2 opening on par with TotalRemake?Expendables2 opening below TheBourneLess?Expendables2 NOT reaching the 100M?Expendables2 NOT being the biggest movie of august?

GideonNOTbeingfunny
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@Jack, I dunno. I recently saw TE1 and thought it was ridiculous. Maybe on HBO next year I'll catch it.

I know I cant convince you, but TE2 is a great improvement on the first one. I really, really didn't like the first one and I love the sequel!
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