Aug. 17-19, 2012 Studio Weekend Estimates (coming in...)

[Justin121]

Sparkle 35%, Paranorman 25%

Thank you, kind sir.

[Wadey Wilsoney]

If there isn't one already, can someone start a Tony Scott remembrance thread?

[filmnerdjamie]

What type of Monday are we looking at for TDKR?

Probably $1.5M ish. Should do about $5-6M weekdays and $7-8M this weekend.

[baumer]

TE will stay above 28 mill. The drop, based on what DA is saying, is probably between 19-23%.

[baumer]

If there isn't one already, can someone start a Tony Scott remembrance thread?

It's in the Speakeasy/

Probably $1.5M ish. Should do about $5-6M weekdays and $7-8M this weekend.

37% seems kind of optimistic.

[cookie]

Damn... next weekend looks like the most uninteresting weekend in a long while. Labor day doesn't fare much better.

[baumer]

Damn... next weekend looks like the most uninteresting weekend in a long while. Labor day doesn't fare much better.

So TE2 could be number one this weekend coming.

[The Dark Alfred]

I'd say minimum 28.2m for TE2, it had a really good Sunday hold in Canada.

Edited August 20, 2012 by The Dark Alfred

[Harpospoke]

Actually it's the other way around as TDKR is reaching its goals everywhere on the planet, except America.

Is it? Not this goal (since predictions are now considered "proof")

The Dark Knight Rises: The Dark Knight is the second-highest grossing comic book adaptation ever overseas with $469 million—still, compared to its domestic total of $533 million, that seems like an unremarkable number. In the four years since that movie was released, though, the international marketplace has expanded significantly, andThe Dark Knight seems to be highly regarded (two years later, Christopher Nolan's Inception earned $533 million overseas). The promise that this is the end of Nolan's Batman story should also help, and the movie has a very good chance of becoming one of the highest-grossing movies ever on an overseas basis.

Forecast: $850 million

http://www.boxoffice...?id=3426&p=.htm

Since he mentioned Nolan's last movie...how did Inception do overseas vs domestic?

Domestic: $292,576,195 35.4%

Foreign: $532,956,569 64.6%

Something must have gone terribly wrong for the domestic numbers to be so far below overseas numbers. We're talking Nolan here! This was two years ago when the overseas markets were not as developed as today when TDKR has done this:

Domestic: $409,916,000 45.7%

Foreign: $487,800,000 54.3%

Hmmm...not exactly outrageous.

But how about Avengers? Surely it wouldn't act that way since nothing was effecting its domestic box office run:

Domestic: $617,603,000 41.7%

Foreign: $863,900,000 58.3%

I guess something was keeping Avengers from making money in North America as well? Either that or this is...normal.

Well a 180m opening with the same multiplier would have allowed it to get there

Don't multipliers change if you change the OW? Edited August 20, 2012 by Harpospoke

[Sims]

Batman never does great overseas. Stop cherrypicking numbers and get over your bias.

[rickfox]

Is it? Not this goal (since predictions are now considered "proof")

The Dark Knight Rises: The Dark Knight is the second-highest grossing comic book adaptation ever overseas with $469 million—still, compared to its domestic total of $533 million, that seems like an unremarkable number. In the four years since that movie was released, though, the international marketplace has expanded significantly, andThe Dark Knight seems to be highly regarded (two years later, Christopher Nolan's Inception earned $533 million overseas). The promise that this is the end of Nolan's Batman story should also help, and the movie has a very good chance of becoming one of the highest-grossing movies ever on an overseas basis.

Forecast: $850 million

http://www.boxoffice...?id=3426&p=.htm

Since he mentioned Nolan's last movie...how did Inception do overseas vs domestic?

Domestic: $292,576,195 35.4%

Foreign: $532,956,569 64.6%

Something must have gone terribly wrong for the domestic numbers to be so far below overseas numbers. We're talking Nolan here! This was two years ago when the overseas markets were not as developed as today when TDKR has done this:

Domestic: $409,916,000 45.7%

Foreign: $487,800,000 54.3%

Hmmm...not exactly outrageous.

But how about Avengers? Surely it wouldn't act that way since nothing was effecting its domestic box office run:

Domestic: $617,603,000 41.7%

Foreign: $863,900,000 58.3%

I guess something was keeping Avengers from making money in North America as well? Either that or this is...normal.

Don't multipliers change if you change the OW?

so what?

Foreign: $532,956,569 - 15,459,083-$68,445,823-$5,370,400

Foreign: $487,800,000 (still increasing) + China+Italy+Taiwan+other countries

[#ED]

So TDKR will have a 1.2M Monday or so? It's going to get a daily below 1M this week?

[The Dark Alfred]

Is it? Not this goal (since predictions are now considered "proof")

The Dark Knight Rises: The Dark Knight is the second-highest grossing comic book adaptation ever overseas with $469 million—still, compared to its domestic total of $533 million, that seems like an unremarkable number. In the four years since that movie was released, though, the international marketplace has expanded significantly, andThe Dark Knight seems to be highly regarded (two years later, Christopher Nolan's Inception earned $533 million overseas). The promise that this is the end of Nolan's Batman story should also help, and the movie has a very good chance of becoming one of the highest-grossing movies ever on an overseas basis.

Forecast: $850 million

http://www.boxoffice...?id=3426&p=.htm

Since he mentioned Nolan's last movie...how did Inception do overseas vs domestic?

Domestic: $292,576,195 35.4%

Foreign: $532,956,569 64.6%

Something must have gone terribly wrong for the domestic numbers to be so far below overseas numbers. We're talking Nolan here! This was two years ago when the overseas markets were not as developed as today when TDKR has done this:

Domestic: $409,916,000 45.7%

Foreign: $487,800,000 54.3%

Hmmm...not exactly outrageous.

But how about Avengers? Surely it wouldn't act that way since nothing was effecting its domestic box office run:

Domestic: $617,603,000 41.7%

Foreign: $863,900,000 58.3%

I guess something was keeping Avengers from making money in North America as well? Either that or this is...normal.

Don't multipliers change if you change the OW?

This is a very pointless post and I don't see what you're trying to say. Throwing numbers out there without logic? Check how previous Batman films performed domestically and OS. And why TA comes into play, when it's a 3D release and we know that Asia for instance digs 3D, so TA's OS ratio was always gonna be great. Same goes for TASM. Many of you guys said all along that TDKR can't come close to TDK due to the Heath-factor and etc. Well, you're proven wrong, TDKR is beating/matching TDk everywhere. Certain OS markets exploded, no doubt about that, but when you're looking at well established markets like UK, Australia, France, Germany, the facts are clear. TDKR achieved its goal.

[baumer]

Alfred:Do you have the exact number for Expendables Sunday?

[luxneji]

This is a very pointless post and I don't see what you're trying to say. Throwing numbers out there without logic? Check how previous Batman films performed domestically and OS. And why TA comes into play, when it's a 3D release and we know that Asia for instance digs 3D, so TA's OS ratio was always gonna be great. Same goes for TASM. Many of you guys said all along that TDKR can't come close to TDK due to the Heath-factor and etc. Well, you're proven wrong, TDKR is beating/matching TDk everywhere. Certain OS markets exploded, no doubt about that, but when you're looking at well established markets like UK, Australia, France, Germany, the facts are clear. TDKR achieved its goal.

is interesting that here in mex inception did like 8m and tdkr so far has 26m i guess mexico is similar to tdkr, but then again they screw inception's release.

[#ED]

EXP2 should stay at $28M.

[Harpospoke]

Batman never does great overseas. Stop cherrypicking numbers and get over your bias.

Things change. Check out Spider-Man

Spider-Man

Domestic: $403,706,375 49.1%

+ Foreign: $418,002,176 50.9%

Spider-Man 2

Domestic: $373,585,825 47.7%

+ Foreign: $410,180,516 52.3%

Spider-Man 3

Domestic: $336,530,303 37.8%

+ Foreign: $554,341,323 62.2%

TASM

Domestic: $257,447,000 37.2%

+ Foreign: $435,100,000 62.8%

Whoa! What happened? Spider-Man doesn't do great overseas!

The BOMojo article I posted with the funny OS prediction for TDKR (850m? Really?) did touch on this subject as well:

Nearly all big-budget movies this Summer are designed with the intention that they will earn at least 60 percent of their revenue in foreign territories, with the biggest grosses likely coming from developing countries China and Russia. As usual, sequels like The Dark Knight Rises and Ice Age: Continental Drift should fare the best, though some original movies like Brave, Snow White and the Huntsman and Prometheus will likely make their mark as well.

So BOMojo certainly seemed to think it would be normal for TDKR to make "at least 60%" of its revenue from OS. So what's so abnormal? TDKR isn't going to get near to 60% OS, is it?

It's also instructive to go back and look at the predictions for various movies to see how often the predictions are wrong. (Avengers anyone?) Using predictions as proof of anything really doesn't work.

Many of you guys said all along that TDKR can't come close to TDK due to the Heath-factor and etc. Well, you're proven wrong, TDKR is beating/matching TDk everywhere. Certain OS markets exploded, no doubt about that, but when you're looking at well established markets like UK, Australia, France, Germany, the facts are clear. TDKR achieved its goal.

Does anyone overseas watch the US tabloid TV shows? Why would the Heath Ledger death have an effect anywhere but the US? Interesting that you believe the shootings did not effect overseas numbers but try to say the Ledger death should have had the same effect in both the US and overseas. Edited August 20, 2012 by Harpospoke

[lab276]

Does anyone overseas watch the US tabloid TV shows? Why would the Heath Ledger death have an effect anywhere but the US? Interesting that you believe the shootings did not effect overseas numbers but try to say the Ledger death should have had the same effect in both the US and overseas.

He's Australian, that should've had a significant impact in Australia. It didn't.