The Warner Bros. Thread | Will NOT merge with Paramount...capitalism is still terrible

[HouseOfTheSun]

Question is, who leads the company as CEO? Id wager the board will want someone more experienced to take the reigns, so maybe they’ll install Zaslav instead of Kilar as CEO. 

[cax16]

4 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Question is, who leads the company as CEO? Id wager the board will want someone more experienced to take the reigns, so maybe they’ll install Zaslav instead of Kilar as CEO. 

“

The valuation under discussion is understood to be well over $100 billion. Discovery CEO David Zaslav would be atop the combined venture. WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar would lead the company’s direct to consumer charge.“

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, cax16 said:

“

The valuation under discussion is understood to be well over $100 billion. Discovery CEO David Zaslav would be atop the combined venture. WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar would lead the company’s direct to consumer charge.“

They’ll essentially have to IPO this market right? I see the valuation falling basically closer to Viacom’s valuation rather than Disney. Around 120B. Zaslav is the right move as well and definitely more playable to the board. He led a relatively successful merger between Scripps and Discovery and a solid launch of DTC 

[cax16]

I just hope this doesn’t mess with hbo/dc content too much. Anytime new bosses come in it seems like there’s always changes. For once I’d just like some semblance of stability with their plan. It seems like they’re on a good path now (content wise). 

Edited May 17, 2021 by cax16

[Fullbuster]

3 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I just hope this doesn’t mess with hbo/dc content too much. Anytime new bosses come in it seems like there’s always changes. For once I’d just like some semblance of stability with their plan. It seems like they’re on a good path now (content wise). 

 

They want to spend only 2 billion dollars a year for HBO Max, it's gonna be a problem at some point with the competiion spending much more. I didn't expect this number to be so far behind the competition.

 

[Jamiem]

5 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I just hope this doesn’t mess with hbo/dc content too much. Anytime new bosses come in it seems like there’s always changes. For once I’d just like some semblance of stability with their plan. It seems like they’re on a good path now (content wise). 

Hopefully with Kilar staying on most of the projects already in production or preproduction will stay although going forward is a different matter. 

 

Also here is my read of things now from the streaming wars thread:

 

Reading more into the Discovery-Warner spinoff merger coverage it seems like AT&T is hoping it gets a decent valuation and will sell the shares they own of the merger (or at least a portion of them) So my first read on the situation was wrong, they are likely doing this to pay down debt and invest in their key business (mobile and broadband) and get out of the media space, which is probably smart but in hindsight would have been better to just not do the Warner purchase at all. 

 

I now wonder if someone will try to pick up the combined company but I guess that will depend on valuation, only likely purchaser if it come sin at the $120-150B range that is guessed by most would be Apple or Amazon (much more likely the former) for a small premium maybe just shy of $200B.

 

I imagine if that doesn't happen that Warner-Discovery will put Discovery programming into HBO Max to try and get that coveted female audience and diversify, also HBO Max can use Discovery+ ad tech which is a benefit although going to suck for people who only watch Discovery content as their bill will go up $5. A bundle of HBO Max/Discovery+ doesn't really make sense as I imagine there is very little overlap between the two services. Sports will be more of a play as they will have sport assets in both the US and Europe now, so they may become a competitor there (or they could sell those assets along with maybe news)

[cax16]

1 minute ago, Jamiem said:

Hopefully with Kilar staying on most of the projects already in production or preproduction will stay although going forward is a different matter. 

 

Also here is my read of things now from the streaming wars thread:

 

 

Reading more into the Discovery-Warner spinoff merger coverage it seems like AT&T is hoping it gets a decent valuation and will sell the shares they own of the merger (or at least a portion of them) So my first read on the situation was wrong, they are likely doing this to pay down debt and invest in their key business (mobile and broadband) and get out of the media space, which is probably smart but in hindsight would have been better to just not do the Warner purchase at all. 

 

I now wonder if someone will try to pick up the combined company but I guess that will depend on valuation, only likely purchaser if it come sin at the $120-150B range that is guessed by most would be Apple or Amazon (much more likely the former) for a small premium maybe just shy of $200B.

 

I imagine if that doesn't happen that Warner-Discovery will put Discovery programming into HBO Max to try and get that coveted female audience and diversify, also HBO Max can use Discovery+ ad tech which is a benefit although going to suck for people who only watch Discovery content as their bill will go up $5. A bundle of HBO Max/Discovery+ doesn't really make sense as I imagine there is very little overlap between the two services. Sports will be more of a play as they will have sport assets in both the US and Europe now, so they may become a competitor there (or they could sell those assets along with maybe news)

Thanks! That’s interesting. I guess I’d kinda like someone else to buy them then, I don’t think AT&T was the right fit for WM, and if a huge company like Apple(amazon?) buys them then spending shouldn’t be an issue right? They could likely keep the same people in charge etc. You guys know way more about this then me so I’d like to hear what you think is best for hbo and dc content for max/movies? 

 

[Jamiem]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

 

They want to spend only 2 billion dollars a year for HBO Max, it's gonna be a problem at some point with the competiion spending much more. I didn't expect this number to be so far behind the competition.

 

I think the $2B was for MAX, whereas HBO already spends around $3B I think and it's was reported that WarnerMedia have been overspending as well on HBO Max. They also have the added benefit of Warner movies, CW shows etc. not going to wards that budget but eventually ending up on the service (much like Disney with movies, Disney Channel, Nat Geo etc. content) Once you get Discovery in there its likely a very decent budget (I'd guess upwards of $10B spending a year) 

 

Plus they should be getting a decent amount of free cash flow as both of their cable assets are still profitable if they need to fund more. 

[Jamiem]

9 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Thanks! That’s interesting. I guess I’d kinda like someone else to buy them then, I don’t think AT&T was the right fit for WM, and if a huge company like Apple(amazon?) buys them then spending shouldn’t be an issue right? They could likely keep the same people in charge etc. You guys know way more about this then me so I’d like to hear what you think is best for hbo and dc content for max/movies? 

 

If Apple or Amazon gets them spending won't be an issue as you can see by the absurd spending on originals by both, it's just are Apple or Amazon willing to part with ~$200B for the company to beef up their streaming services or do they think that money can be better spent on new originals (which is why I'm leaning towards Apple as a likely buyer as they don't have a back catalogue) The benefit is that Amazon and Apple are both global so they just have to wait for local rights to expire and then they already have the technology in distribution in place. 

 

However as I siad in my reply to Fullbuster, I don't think they will have too much of an issue spending in the short term either (once cord cutting really ramps up that will change as they both heavily lean on Cable); I think it largely depends on how much and how quickly they can scale (streaming wise) in terms of if that is still the case in 5-10 years but even if not they don't do well they'll likely get sold on the cheap to another company as they both have valuable franchises and libraries. They could also sell news/sports assets if they need quick capital to fund more tv/movies. 

 

In terms of what's best for HBO/DC I imagine just getting great people to work on those (Casey Bloys seems like a great asset at HBO for instance) so if they keep the important people thats key. Also I think funding stuff without having to worry about Debt (which is the god aspect of getting away from AT&T) should also be beneficial in the long run as long as the films and series perform that is. 

Edited May 17, 2021 by Jamiem

[Fullbuster]

5 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

I think the $2B was for MAX, whereas HBO already spends around $3B I think and it's was reported that WarnerMedia have been overspending as well on HBO Max. They also have the added benefit of Warner movies, CW shows etc. not going to wards that budget but eventually ending up on the service (much like Disney with movies, Disney Channel, Nat Geo etc. content) Once you get Discovery in there its likely a very decent budget (I'd guess upwards of $10B spending a year) 

 

Plus they should be getting a decent amount of free cash flow as both of their cable assets are still profitable if they need to fund more. 

 

Sounds good enough then

It reminds me of Disney, I was surprised of them saying they'd spend 8-9 billion dollars a year on Disney+ as Netflix is at $17B a year but now that I thinki about it it wasn't taking into account the spending on Disney Channel, ABC, FX, Nat Geo..etc..as their content will end on Disney+ anyway so I guess the true number is much higher than that.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, cax16 said:

“

The valuation under discussion is understood to be well over $100 billion. Discovery CEO David Zaslav would be atop the combined venture. WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar would lead the company’s direct to consumer charge.“

Feels like a good way to fill the holes in each company's portfolio. HBO, Warner, CNN don't have a lifestyle and education channel and Discovery doesn't have original scripted programming, movies and news. They will each complement the other in terms of programming provided. My guess is Discovery+ will merge with HBO Max into just a hub on HBO Max

[HouseOfTheSun]

17 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Hopefully with Kilar staying on most of the projects already in production or preproduction will stay although going forward is a different matter. 

 

Also here is my read of things now from the streaming wars thread:

 

 

Reading more into the Discovery-Warner spinoff merger coverage it seems like AT&T is hoping it gets a decent valuation and will sell the shares they own of the merger (or at least a portion of them) So my first read on the situation was wrong, they are likely doing this to pay down debt and invest in their key business (mobile and broadband) and get out of the media space, which is probably smart but in hindsight would have been better to just not do the Warner purchase at all. 

 

I now wonder if someone will try to pick up the combined company but I guess that will depend on valuation, only likely purchaser if it come sin at the $120-150B range that is guessed by most would be Apple or Amazon (much more likely the former) for a small premium maybe just shy of $200B.

 

I imagine if that doesn't happen that Warner-Discovery will put Discovery programming into HBO Max to try and get that coveted female audience and diversify, also HBO Max can use Discovery+ ad tech which is a benefit although going to suck for people who only watch Discovery content as their bill will go up $5. A bundle of HBO Max/Discovery+ doesn't really make sense as I imagine there is very little overlap between the two services. Sports will be more of a play as they will have sport assets in both the US and Europe now, so they may become a competitor there (or they could sell those assets along with maybe news)

My goodness if another buyout happens with Warner, it’d be just comical at that point. This company been out through the ringer over the last 30 years lol. AOL, then AT&T, now a merger with Discovery...yikes. Morale must be at al all time low. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Feels like a good way to fill the holes in each company's portfolio. HBO, Warner, CNN don't have a lifestyle and education channel and Discovery doesn't have original scripted programming, movies and news. They will each complement the other in terms of programming provided. My guess is Discovery+ will merge with HBO Max into just a hub on HBO Max

I really don’t think that’s the best way to go about it. The price points are way too different currently. Not to mention that it feel like a content dump that would just feel like they’re burying the content on Max with no further plans. 

[Jamiem]

Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

My goodness if another buyout happens with Warner, it’d be just comical at that point. This company been out through the ringer over the last 30 years lol. AOL, then AT&T, now a merger with Discovery...yikes. Morale must be at al all time low. 

That's true but its already looking like Discovery will take the lead anyway, so in a way its already another acquisition (although hopefully with less turnover at Warner/HBO) so if that buyout happens shortly after it will probably feel like one big process plus unlike AOL (which was bubble) and AT&T which was heavy in Debt, Apple is a cash flow machine so would possibly put people at more ease knowing there in a likely safer situation. 

[Jamiem]

2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I really don’t think that’s the best way to go about it. The price points are way too different currently. Not to mention that it feel like a content dump that would just feel like they’re burying the content on Max with no further plans. 

The other option is a bundle which makes even less sense as I imagine there is little overlap between the two services or just leaving them as is which in that case what is the point. 

 

The HBO Max team has talked about trying to get a female skewing audience and Discovery content is great for that, so I think merging these services is going to happen. As far as price that is going to be a tricky one and Discovery+ users might fell burned by the $5 price hike but I assume some sort of grandfathering for a short period of time to try and get people to migrate over, long term it will be difficult though. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, Jamiem said:

That's true but its already looking like Discovery will take the lead anyway, so in a way its already another acquisition (although hopefully with less turnover at Warner/HBO) so if that buyout happens shortly after it will probably feel like one big process plus unlike AOL (which was bubble) and AT&T which was heavy in Debt, Apple is a cash flow machine so would possibly put people at more ease knowing there in a likely safer situation. 

I suppose we will see now how much Apple cares about being a major player or just creating some solid content to keep people in the Apple bubble. I still don’t think Apple or Amazon are really in it to dictate Hollywood and putting up 200 billion for the purchase would be a really big departure from their current plays. 

[Jamiem]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I suppose we will see now how much Apple cares about being a major player or just creating some solid content to keep people in the Apple bubble. I still don’t think Apple or Amazon are really in it to dictate Hollywood and putting up 200 billion for the purchase would be a really big departure from their current plays. 

Yeah maybe too big a cost for them, but if it's going to happen it will be one of them as I don't see any other players being able to pony up that many $$$

 

Edit: I do think they can still succeed without an acquisition but they need to nail the streaming transition as being tied up in cable longterm is probably not the place most media companies won't to be although in the short to medium term they are benefiting from it as carriage fees and advertising rates are still largely increasing. I think HBO Max  with sports rights in Europe will be a strong player in that market and the US and maybe Latin America can be strong for them also. 

 

However if streaming doesn't see the return on investment for them it could be scary and they need global scale to compete with Netflix, Disney, Apple and Amazon as this merger is largely about creating what will largely be a streaming company in the future from what I can tell. In that worst case scenario they will likely get picked up on the cheap and whoever gets them will divest their cable assets (probably for pennies)

Edited May 17, 2021 by Jamiem

[WittyUsername]

So, is AT&T dropping WarnerMedia? 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, WittyUsername said:

So, is AT&T dropping WarnerMedia? 

Yes. 

[WittyUsername]

6 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Yes. 

After only three years? Damn. What does that mean for HBO Max? That was AT&T’s idea.