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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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LexJoker Box Office Gold

LexJoker

Posted
Posted

s

Transformers 4 did over 300 million, thats such a big increase.

LOL TF3 when released was the 2nd most popular movie ever after Avatar. TF4 came out after 4 years.

BOTFA comes just after 12 months.

 

How can you compare one franchise increase between 4 years to another between just 1 year.

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sunday est

NATM3 29M, 29M/$4.6M

Tiger Mountain 21M, 681M/$109.4M

100000 Bad Jokes 6.3M, 83M/$13.3M

Love on the Cloud 5.0M, 261M/$42M

GWTB 1.3M, 509M/$82M

NATM3 should do around $45M in the long run.

Edited by Sorcerer Supreme
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Lihongkim Indie Sensation

Lihongkim

Posted
Posted

I'm not even sure if i will watch The Tiger Mountain.

 

Maybe not.

Tiger Mountain reports as most outstanding chinese films 2014. Tsui Hark's movies action style are always creative & amazing.

 

NATM3? Miss Granny & The Grandmaster 3D come out this weekend (1.8.2015). Top maybe fall to Miss Granny with lead role actor (The Continent) & lead role actress (So Young).

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Quigley Box Office Gold

Quigley

Posted
Posted

2015 WORLDWIDE GROSSES

2014 was a rather mediocre year. Although overall, business was satisfactory, many individual films failed to meet expectations. There were some surprises, both pleasant and disappointing but no insane outliers (apart from 'Guardians of the Galaxy'). If anything, we learnt not to underestimate Marvel but to expect negative reception to greatly influence well-established franchises (Spider-Man, Transformers, The Hunger Games). That is true only in North America though. I think I must finally note how important China is becoming: this booming market has seen many Hollywood productions gross more than in North America Its exponentially expanding screen capacity means that it is more vital than ever before for a film to succeed in China - look no further than Transformers 4 for proof. That being said, other traditionally strong markets must not be underestimated because China alone is not enough - an obvious example this year is Frozen in Japan.

In 2015, there are many strong franchises and it will almost definitely be the biggest year ever in cinematic history. Let's cut to the point:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1710 million

2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $1120 million

3. Spectre $1050 million

4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $970 million

5. Furious 7 $880 million

6. The Minions $820 million

7. Inside Out $690 million

8. Tomorrowland $680 million

9. Mission Impossible 5 $640 million

10. Ant-Man $635 million

11. The Good Dinosaur $610 million

12. Jurassic World $570 million

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is completely unprecedented, including the success of 'The Avengers'. No one can really tell if that film behaved like a super-sequel or an original film - probably a bit of both, boosted by extremely positive audience reception. It is thus difficult to predict the sequel's gross. I believe the closet comparison we have is 'The Hunger Games'. This built up massive hype prior to release despite not being a sequel and had an enormous opening weekend. Excellent word-of-mouth propelled it to over $40M. Its sequel was even more massive but only slightly more. Many are suggesting that 'The Avengers' also reached saturation levels so I cannot see 'Age of Ultron' earning a lot more. This is the case for North America but outside of it there's a different story. Booming markets including -you guessed it - China will expand greatly so a worldwide total ahead of the first one is guaranteed (NA: $630M, outside: $1080M).

Speaking of cinematic universes, another one is vying for one of the top positions: 'Star Wars'. The hype is immense, as Disney can barely avoid secrets being spoiled and cannot keep up with the leakage of photos/footage (also a problem with 'Age of Ultron'). The prequels were very successful in their corresponding years and overseas expansion since the last one hit theaters ('Revenge of the Sith' in 2005) is definitely going to push 'The Force Awakens' higher than any other chapter. By how much no one can know but anything below $1 billion is already looking like a disappointment (NA: $380M, outside: $740M).

The final film to reach $1 billion is 'Spectre'. After earning $1.1 billion, 'Skyfall' reassured that James Bond films remain extremely popular, even 50 years and 23 films later. 'Spectre' would need to drop 10% from its predecessor to elude the coveted billion-dollar mark which seems unlikely even if the film is not as well received (mainly due to China's expansion). I'll split the distance and predict $1050 million (NA: $275 million, outside: $775 million).

Finally, there is a possibility of a fourth billion-dollar film, which is no other than 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2'. Its predecessor has somewhat disappointed everyone with its recession in North America and stagnant overseas grosses. However, any finale released in the past years, whether it's 'Harry Potter', 'Twilight' or 'The Dark Knight', has shown huge worldwide growth even if there was a decrease in North American returns. It is imperceivable for 'Mockingjay - Part 2' to drop further from its predecessor in North America, so only growth is considered as a possibility. However, $1 billion lamentably seems a bit too far away and without 3-D a movie can only go so far these days - exceptions not withstanding - especially in markets such as Brazil, China and South Korea. It will come frighteningly close though (NA: $420M, outside: $550M).

Rounding out the top 5 is 'Furious 7'. The franchise has only been rising in the past years and the death of Paul Walker has, if anything, increased its popularity. 'Furious 7' also appears to be the final film of the series (although I struggle to believe that), a fact that will add even more to the film's event status. Effectively, what we will see is another healthy increase in worldwide returns, especially due the lack of competition around the time of the movie's release, early April (NA: $260M, outside: $620M).

Animated films were absent from the top rankings last year but this year this is bound to change. Moving into the lower five, an animated film finally appears. 'The Minions' are a spin-off prequel to 'Despicable Me'. The franchise became immensely popular in summer 2013 with the release of the sequel which barely missed $1 billion. Not many animated spin-off prequels exist, but two that come to mind are 'Puss in Boots' and 'Penguins of Madagascar'. Both of them fell by a substantial percentage from the other films of the franchise. But that was mainly due to franchise fatigue and mediocre reception. 'Minions' comes off a highly successful mass-pleasing sequel and minions were admittedly its major selling point. Expect this one to drop from 'Despicable Me2', especially in North America and probably other English-speaking countries but not by much (NA: $290M, outside: $530M).

Not very far behind, Pixar is returning this year with 'Inside Out'. The Pixar brand has been challenged somewhat in the past years but it is still highly successful commercially. Disney will obviously market this film heavily since last summer was the first in nine years without a Pixar film. Overseas though, as an original film, this could go either way: join Finding Nemo and Up in the higher ranks or stay with Wall-E and Brave lower down. Its interesting premise will hopefully favor the prior (NA: $280M, outside: $410M).

Another Disney film, the fourth down the list, will be eighth this year: 'Tomorrowland: The World Beyond'. This is a live-action film directed by Brad Bird. From 'The Iron Giant' to 'The Incredibles' and 'Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol', Brad Bird has made impressive films, story-wise and action-wise, and this will probably not disappoint either. Prepare for a Mission Impossible 4-like gross since it is an original film, unlike 'Ghost Protocol', but has 3-D and a Memorial-Day weekend release date to compensate (NA: $220M, outside: $460M).

Similarly to 'Inside Out', 'A Good Dinosaur' will definitely do well in North America but, as an original film, its overseas prospects are largely unpredictable (NA: $250M, outside: $360M).

'Mission Impossible 5' is coming off a very successful predecessor but, being released a week after 'The Force Awakens', this film isn't really in the most favorable position. In any case, franchise fatigue and Brad Bird not returning to direct further decrease the event status of this film so don't expect it to match 'Ghost Protocol' although China will definitely increase from the prior (NA: $165M, outside: $475M).

Finally, Ant-Man has a chance of breaking the Top 10. Despite a troubled production, this is Marvel we're talking about and the lesson from pretty much every single year since 2011 is to not underestimate this studio. Nevertheless it will be released in mid-July, amidst a more crowded market than either 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' or 'Guardians of the Galaxy'. This will inevitably have a slight inhibitory effect. Expect at least $500M worldwide and probably a lot more (NA: $225M, $410M).

In a final analysis of an individual film, 'Jurassic World' definitely has a fanbase eager to watch this long-awaited unnecessary sequel. I question though whether enough hype will be built up to promote this film to event status similarly to 'The Force Awakens'. The trailer resembles 'Godzilla' in a way that could have a negative impact on general interest, especially since the latter was very badly received. On the other hand, the Chinese don't seem to care so much about quality, so overseas grosses will guarantee this isn't deemed a flop (NA: $180M, outside: $390M).

Also hoping for a Top 20 and maybe even Top 10 finish are two female-fueled films, two fanboy films, three that appeal to both - including a comedy-, and another animated film:

Cinderella ($450M+)

Ted 2 ($430M+)

Fifty Shades of Grey ($380M+)

Fantastic Four ($370M+)

Hotel Transylvania 2 ($350M+)

Maze Runner 2 ($340M+)

Insurgent ($320M+)

Terminator ($300M+)

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James Summer Tentpole

James

Posted
Posted

2015 WORLDWIDE GROSSES

2014 was a rather mediocre year. Although overall, business was satisfactory, many individual films failed to meet expectations. There were some surprises, both pleasant and disappointing but no insane outliers (apart from 'Guardians of the Galaxy'). If anything, we learnt not to underestimate Marvel but to expect negative reception to greatly influence well-established franchises (Spider-Man, Transformers, The Hunger Games). That is true only in North America though. I think I must finally note how important China is becoming: this booming market has seen many Hollywood productions gross more than in North America Its exponentially expanding screen capacity means that it is more vital than ever before for a film to succeed in China - look no further than Transformers 4 for proof. That being said, other traditionally strong markets must not be underestimated because China alone is not enough - an obvious example this year is Frozen in Japan.

In 2015, there are many strong franchises and it will almost definitely be the biggest year ever in cinematic history. Let's cut to the point:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1710 million

2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $1120 million

3. Spectre $1050 million

4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $970 million

5. Furious 7 $880 million

6. The Minions $820 million

7. Inside Out $690 million

8. Tomorrowland $680 million

9. Mission Impossible 5 $640 million

10. Ant-Man $635 million

11. The Good Dinosaur $610 million

12. Jurassic World $570 million

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is completely unprecedented, including the success of 'The Avengers'. No one can really tell if that film behaved like a super-sequel or an original film - probably a bit of both, boosted by extremely positive audience reception. It is thus difficult to predict the sequel's gross. I believe the closet comparison we have is 'The Hunger Games'. This built up massive hype prior to release despite not being a sequel and had an enormous opening weekend. Excellent word-of-mouth propelled it to over $40M. Its sequel was even more massive but only slightly more. Many are suggesting that 'The Avengers' also reached saturation levels so I cannot see 'Age of Ultron' earning a lot more. This is the case for North America but outside of it there's a different story. Booming markets including -you guessed it - China will expand greatly so a worldwide total ahead of the first one is guaranteed (NA: $630M, outside: $1080M).

Speaking of cinematic universes, another one is vying for one of the top positions: 'Star Wars'. The hype is immense, as Disney can barely avoid secrets being spoiled and cannot keep up with the leakage of photos/footage (also a problem with 'Age of Ultron'). The prequels were very successful in their corresponding years and overseas expansion since the last one hit theaters ('Revenge of the Sith' in 2005) is definitely going to push 'The Force Awakens' higher than any other chapter. By how much no one can know but anything below $1 billion is already looking like a disappointment (NA: $380M, outside: $740M).

The final film to reach $1 billion is 'Spectre'. After earning $1.1 billion, 'Skyfall' reassured that James Bond films remain extremely popular, even 50 years and 23 films later. 'Spectre' would need to drop 10% from its predecessor to elude the coveted billion-dollar mark which seems unlikely even if the film is not as well received (mainly due to China's expansion). I'll split the distance and predict $1050 million (NA: $275 million, outside: $775 million).

Finally, there is a possibility of a fourth billion-dollar film, which is no other than 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2'. Its predecessor has somewhat disappointed everyone with its recession in North America and stagnant overseas grosses. However, any finale released in the past years, whether it's 'Harry Potter', 'Twilight' or 'The Dark Knight', has shown huge worldwide growth even if there was a decrease in North American returns. It is imperceivable for 'Mockingjay - Part 2' to drop further from its predecessor in North America, so only growth is considered as a possibility. However, $1 billion lamentably seems a bit too far away and without 3-D a movie can only go so far these days - exceptions not withstanding - especially in markets such as Brazil, China and South Korea. It will come frighteningly close though (NA: $420M, outside: $550M).

Rounding out the top 5 is 'Furious 7'. The franchise has only been rising in the past years and the death of Paul Walker has, if anything, increased its popularity. 'Furious 7' also appears to be the final film of the series (although I struggle to believe that), a fact that will add even more to the film's event status. Effectively, what we will see is another healthy increase in worldwide returns, especially due the lack of competition around the time of the movie's release, early April (NA: $260M, outside: $620M).

Animated films were absent from the top rankings last year but this year this is bound to change. Moving into the lower five, an animated film finally appears. 'The Minions' are a spin-off prequel to 'Despicable Me'. The franchise became immensely popular in summer 2013 with the release of the sequel which barely missed $1 billion. Not many animated spin-off prequels exist, but two that come to mind are 'Puss in Boots' and 'Penguins of Madagascar'. Both of them fell by a substantial percentage from the other films of the franchise. But that was mainly due to franchise fatigue and mediocre reception. 'Minions' comes off a highly successful mass-pleasing sequel and minions were admittedly its major selling point. Expect this one to drop from 'Despicable Me2', especially in North America and probably other English-speaking countries but not by much (NA: $290M, outside: $530M).

Not very far behind, Pixar is returning this year with 'Inside Out'. The Pixar brand has been challenged somewhat in the past years but it is still highly successful commercially. Disney will obviously market this film heavily since last summer was the first in nine years without a Pixar film. Overseas though, as an original film, this could go either way: join Finding Nemo and Up in the higher ranks or stay with Wall-E and Brave lower down. Its interesting premise will hopefully favor the prior (NA: $280M, outside: $410M).

Another Disney film, the fourth down the list, will be eighth this year: 'Tomorrowland: The World Beyond'. This is a live-action film directed by Brad Bird. From 'The Iron Giant' to 'The Incredibles' and 'Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol', Brad Bird has made impressive films, story-wise and action-wise, and this will probably not disappoint either. Prepare for a Mission Impossible 4-like gross since it is an original film, unlike 'Ghost Protocol', but has 3-D and a Memorial-Day weekend release date to compensate (NA: $220M, outside: $460M).

Similarly to 'Inside Out', 'A Good Dinosaur' will definitely do well in North America but, as an original film, its overseas prospects are largely unpredictable (NA: $250M, outside: $360M).

'Mission Impossible 5' is coming off a very successful predecessor but, being released a week after 'The Force Awakens', this film isn't really in the most favorable position. In any case, franchise fatigue and Brad Bird not returning to direct further decrease the event status of this film so don't expect it to match 'Ghost Protocol' although China will definitely increase from the prior (NA: $165M, outside: $475M).

Finally, Ant-Man has a chance of breaking the Top 10. Despite a troubled production, this is Marvel we're talking about and the lesson from pretty much every single year since 2011 is to not underestimate this studio. Nevertheless it will be released in mid-July, amidst a more crowded market than either 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' or 'Guardians of the Galaxy'. This will inevitably have a slight inhibitory effect. Expect at least $500M worldwide and probably a lot more (NA: $225M, $410M).

In a final analysis of an individual film, 'Jurassic World' definitely has a fanbase eager to watch this long-awaited unnecessary sequel. I question though whether enough hype will be built up to promote this film to event status similarly to 'The Force Awakens'. The trailer resembles 'Godzilla' in a way that could have a negative impact on general interest, especially since the latter was very badly received. On the other hand, the Chinese don't seem to care so much about quality, so overseas grosses will guarantee this isn't deemed a flop (NA: $180M, outside: $390M).

Also hoping for a Top 20 and maybe even Top 10 finish are two female-fueled films, two fanboy films, three that appeal to both - including a comedy-, and another animated film:

Cinderella ($450M+)

Ted 2 ($430M+)

Fifty Shades of Grey ($380M+)

Fantastic Four ($370M+)

Hotel Transylvania 2 ($350M+)

Maze Runner 2 ($340M+)

Insurgent ($320M+)

Terminator ($300M+)

Hmm... MI5 will probably make close to 200M just from China so I dont see how it only makes 474M OS even with SW. Also I will laugh my ass of if SW only makes 380M in NA. 50 Shades has a better chance at WW top 10 than AntMan and Maze Runner 2 will definitely increase WW from the first one. It was very well received.
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Fantaboy Straight-to-DVD

Fantaboy

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Posted

GWTB is doing $82M and everybody is going:"Yea, it's flopped..." 

GWTB is the floppest movie I have ever seen.

Nearly every predictor calls it for $300m and it turns out to be less than $100m.

It is extremely disappointing for everyone, I think.

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