sgchn40 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 10 hours ago, No Prisoners said: Thx. just got out of 80% of my position. You get nearly 10% in 24 hours, take it. Let some of it ride though. So you think BO continues at 40-50% this year. I wrote in my thread today, April thru July could be tough. I believe the floor is 30% for the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Fake said: Nah..... I still reckon it will do 220M+. Pre-sales have been dropping every day, but it is being compensated by stronger walk-ups. Presale for first Monday after holiday is 1.5M now.I don't think 3B is locked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Mermaid's at 100M on Maoyan, 200M will happen for the day and probably push towards 220M like Fake said. Macau3 is continuing to go down and it's lead over KFP3 is shrinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 2PM updates vs final grosses: MON - 170.1 - 267.8 = 1.57x TUE - 162.8 - 239.5 = 1.47x WED - 161.9 - 245.2 = 1.52x THU - 150.5 - 243.7 = 1.62x FRI - 139.6 - 235.9 = 1.69x SAT - 128.9 Slowly the multiplier is shifting towards the "normal" multiplier of ~2x. Let's say 1.75x for today, which yields 225M. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 1 hour ago, bangbingchan said: Presale for first Monday after holiday is 1.5M now.I don't think 3B is locked I won't put too much stock in presales...... it will mostly be driven by walk-ups from Monday onward..... which are bound to be HUGE. I see this as the low end Week 1: 1750M (Mon-Thu: 1000M Fri-Sun: 750M) Week 2: 850M Week 3: 250M Week 4: 100M Rest: 50M+ So 3B will be done even with "harsh" drops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Valentine‘s day showtimes:155k+ Mermaid 34.4% Macau 3/ TMK2 16.6% Romcom A 11.6% Romcom B 9.0% KFP3 4.7% 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 55 minutes ago, Olive Skywalker said: Valentine‘s day showtimes:155k+ Mermaid 34.4% Macau 3/ TMK2 16.6% Romcom A 11.6% Romcom B 9.0% KFP3 4.7% Is that good for KFP3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That is good. it will still go up with final count. That's bigger than what it had on CNY. It has recovered well with Macau 3 and TMK2 disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 7 hours ago, Olive Skywalker said: Um, presales dropped a lot, Mermaid may have its first sub-200M day.. 6:00PM Maoyan: Mermaid-193,13M TMK2-66,89M Macau 3-56,98M KFP3-24,44M 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 220-230m for mermaid. 80m for TMK2 and 65m for Macau3. KFP3 generally does not move much beyond 6PM. Still 25m is great for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: 6:00PM Maoyan: Mermaid-193,13M TMK2-66,89M Macau 3-56,98M KFP3-24,44M Yeah...... 220M looking good............ Tomorrow..... 300M!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So today Mermaid can finish with about 1.46 billion, right? That is about $223m in 6 days. Top put into perspective: it is a similar 6-day opening to Ultron (227) or TDK (222) in US... And if tomorrow finishes with about $275m that would be just behind the opening week of TFA (363) and Jurassic World (296), and similar to Avengers (270). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 35 minutes ago, Fake said: Yeah...... 220M looking good............ Tomorrow..... 300M!!!! I'm speechless!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weihai111 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 so 500m$ is possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 My optimistic projection for Mermaid: SUN: 300M(1760M cume) WEEK 2: MON: 150M TUE: 150M WED: 130M THU: 120M FRI: 110M SAT: 150M SUN: 130M TOTAL: 940M (2700M cume) WEEK 3: MON: 55M TUE: 55M WED: 45M THU: 40M FRI: 40M SAT: 70M SUN: 55M TOTAL: 360M (3060M cume) WEEK 4: 140M (3200M cume) FINISH: 3300M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 (edited) My pessimistic projection for Mermaid: SUN: 290M(1750M cume) WEEK 2: MON: 140M TUE: 140M WED: 120M THU: 110M FRI: 100M SAT: 140M SUN: 120M TOTAL: 870M (2620M cume) WEEK 3: MON: 50M TUE: 50M WED: 40M THU: 35M FRI: 35M SAT: 60M SUN: 45M TOTAL: 315M (2935M cume) WEEK 4: 105M (3040M cume) FINISH: 3100M Edited February 13, 2016 by Fake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So the CNY week gross is 3.5B!!!! what was the gross last year. with 2 more weeks I can see another 2B !!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Fake said: My optimistic projection for Mermaid: FINISH: 3300M 1 hour ago, Fake said: My pessimistic projection for Mermaid: FINISH: 3100M Wow!!! just a small difference between your O & P. Anything over 3B is crazy IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/25/2015 at 5:32 PM, Olive Skywalker said: Spring festival Golden week(Feb 18~24) box office hit 1.73 billion yuan/$275m, +37% vs last year. Market daily gross averaged at $46.2m for the last 6 days. 23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: So the CNY week gross is 3.5B!!!! what was the gross last year. with 2 more weeks I can see another 2B !!! CNY 2016 double CNY 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WOW. I guess this month will be way ahead of last year as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...